PA: PPP: Sestak +1

[Meeker]

Sestak: 46%
Toomey: 45%

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/pennsylvania-senate-tied.html

[Oakvale]

woah what

[Keystone Phil]

Ok

[Rowan]

Right.

[Oakvale]

"PPP is a Democratic hack firm" in 3... 2...

[Rowan]

"PPP is a Democratic hack firm" in 3... 2...

Or just terribly wrong here.

[Brittain33]

There were many reasons why this race should have been expected to tighten up. Sestak ahead? That's a bigger leap than that. I don't believe this poll, but I have hope here that I've lost for most other races.

[mypalfish]

The partisan sample changed dramatically from their last poll.  It went from Dems +2 to Dems +7.

[Tender Branson]

Good, if true ...

[Oakvale]

It's worth noting that Twitter (admittedly not always hugely reliable) has been buzzing with rumors that private polling's showing the race in Pennsylvania getting closer in recent days.

Not saying that Sestak's necessarily ahead, but I wouldn't be surprised if Toomey's lead was around two, three points.

[Holmes]

If only...

[Tender Branson]

Also notice that Sam Spade said that when looking into the internals, the Rasmussen poll showing a 10-point Toomey lead seemed really off to him ...

[DrScholl]

It will be interesting to see what happens, PPP has been very accurate and seems to pick up on things that other pollsters sometimes miss. Pennsylvania will be close.

[Tender Branson]

Meh, if Mason-Dixon or SUSA could just poll this race ...

[Tender Branson]

At least Sestak did what Santorum never did in 2006: lead in a poll slightly before the election ...

[Sam Spade]

Also notice that Sam Spade said that when looking into the internals, the Rasmussen poll showing a 10-point Toomey lead seemed really off to him ...

I also tend not to believe the D/R spread is going to be the same as 2008.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Say what?

[Sbane]

Don't know if Sestak is actually leading or not, but this one should be relatively close on election night. It's a good sign for Democrats, since getting blown out in a state you need to win in 2012 is never good.

[Tender Branson]

Also notice that Sam Spade said that when looking into the internals, the Rasmussen poll showing a 10-point Toomey lead seemed really off to him ...

I also tend not to believe the D/R spread is going to be the same as 2008.

Depends. What if there will be no such thing as an "enthusiasm gap" in PA ?

[Sam Spade]

Also notice that Sam Spade said that when looking into the internals, the Rasmussen poll showing a 10-point Toomey lead seemed really off to him ...

I also tend not to believe the D/R spread is going to be the same as 2008.

Depends. What if there will be no such thing as an "enthusiasm gap" in PA ?

I doubt the numbers will be the same, regardless of enthusiasm gap.

[mypalfish]

From twitter....

jimgeraghty
jimgeraghty
5 minutes ago
% of Democrats in exit polls in PA: 2004, 41%; 2006, 43%; 2008, 44%. Democrats in PPP PA sample today: 48%.

[J. J.]

Not unexpected, and I'd expect a close.

I would not however expect Sestak to be ahead.

[Sbane]

Also notice that Sam Spade said that when looking into the internals, the Rasmussen poll showing a 10-point Toomey lead seemed really off to him ...

I also tend not to believe the D/R spread is going to be the same as 2008.

Adjusting this poll to a D+2 spread leads to about a 4-5 point lead for Toomey. That sounds about right, don't you think?

[Keystone Phil]

From twitter....

jimgeraghty
jimgeraghty
5 minutes ago
% of Democrats in exit polls in PA: 2004, 41%; 2006, 43%; 2008, 44%. Democrats in PPP PA sample today: 48%.

They couldn't make it a little less obvious? 

[Tender Branson]

Look, this was PPP's final 2008 poll:

They had 51% Democrats, 42% Republicans and 7% Independents (Obama+8).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/2008_Archives/PPP_Release_Pennnsylvania_1102582.pdf

This poll is 48% Democrats, 41% Republicans and 11% Independents.

...

The 2008 Exit Poll was 44% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 18% Independents (Obama+11).

...

PPP doesn´t weight the party ID, it´s what people tell them at the phone. And of course people are more likely to say to a robot on the phone that they are either a Democrat or a Republican, while they are more likely to say "Independent" when they are asked by a human after they exited the polling station. Simply put: these figures are not comparable really.

As evidenced above, the Exit poll was less Democratic than PPP's sample, yet Obama won by 11 compared with 8 in PPP's poll.

...

All that matters is that Sestak can get his share up to 85-90% among Democrats and do about as well as Toomey does with Independents and he could win.