Washington State will become a fiasco.

[Alcon]

Washington is a state that likes to elect Democrats.

It's hard, really, to be a Democrat and lose in a statewide race unless you are going against an incumbnent Republican.

But it looks like Christine Gregoire has managed to do just that with the governor's race.

Much has been made about the provisional ballots left to count. So I decided to go by county and, based on the current results, calculate an estimation of the outcome. The results were:

Rossi 1,369,307 (48.97%)
Gregoire 1,364,908 (48.82%)
Bennett 61,810 (2.21%)

Now, these numbers show that the current likely situation is a small Rossi win. However, there is a part of the Washington State constitution that forces a recount when the result is within 0.5%.

Based on this, the result will be within 0.15%. It is fairly unlikely that Rossi would get enough of the remaining ballots to throw the election to him with more than 0.5% difference.

This election is destined to become a fiasco.

[StevenNick]

Ugh.  I want this to be over as quickly as possible.  At least it looks like I voted for the winner. 

[bgwah]

The recount in the 2002 senate race increased Cantwell's lead, perhaps it will help out Gregoire too.

[Alcon]

Update including today's numbers:

Rossi 1,368,964 (48.95%)
Gregoire 1,365,562 (48.83%)
Bennett 62,256 (2.23%)

On another note, I have heard from the news media both that the recount will go into effect if it is within 0.5% or if it is within 2,000 votes. I'm not sure which is accurate.

[A18]

I'll trade you our governor for your governor

[Sam Spade]

I have heard conflicting reports of what the recount margin would be too, so I really don't know.

Looking at the numbers and where the remaining ballots are left from, my bet would be that Rossi wins by roughly 2-3,000 votes and we get a serious recount afterwards, maybe a fiasco too. 

[bgwah]

Update including today's numbers:

Rossi 1,368,964 (48.95%)
Gregoire 1,365,562 (48.83%)
Bennett 62,256 (2.23%)

On another note, I have heard from the news media both that the recount will go into effect if it is within 0.5% or if it is within 2,000 votes. I'm not sure which is accurate.

I've heard that too. My guess is that when the state constitution was written, the vote difference being less than 2,000 votes could very well have been a wider % gap than 0.5%, but they figured there would be population growth so put the 0.5% in there too.

[ATFFL]

Washington State Recount Law

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It must be both less than .5% and 2,000 votes.  This is most likely so tha tsmall offices, possibly some that get less than 2000 votes cast for them, do not always go to a recount, even when the result is 1,999 to 0.

[Alcon]

That's a stupid law. 2,000 ballots is like a 0.1% margin. The only way it could be 2,000 ballots and not 0.5% margin is if 80% of the people in the state didn't vote for said office.

[ATFFL]

That's a stupid law. 2,000 ballots is like a 0.1% margin. The only way it could be 2,000 ballots and not 0.5% margin is if 80% of the people in the state didn't vote for said office.

Like I said, it applies to all elections in the state.  The .5% rule is there for a small county office that sees only a few thousand votes.

The first thing you do is look to see if the final vote is within 2,000 votes.  If not, election over.  If it is then you look at the percentage.  If it is within .5%, recount.  If not, election over.

It does seem like it would be better to just have a percentage cut off or different rules for different levels of government.   One standard for statewide offices and another for county and such.

[muon2]

That's a stupid law. 2,000 ballots is like a 0.1% margin. The only way it could be 2,000 ballots and not 0.5% margin is if 80% of the people in the state didn't vote for said office.

Like I said, it applies to all elections in the state.  The .5% rule is there for a small county office that sees only a few thousand votes.

The first thing you do is look to see if the final vote is within 2,000 votes.  If not, election over.  If it is then you look at the percentage.  If it is within .5%, recount.  If not, election over.

It does seem like it would be better to just have a percentage cut off or different rules for different levels of government.   One standard for statewide offices and another for county and such.

Statistically the likelihood of the result changing as a percent is not constant. The percentage decreases as the number of votes increases, yet the total vote margin increases.

The formula that governs this goes a the square root of the number of votes, but that's a level of math that most legislators would prefer to avoid.  Most state adopt a percentage such as 0.5%, but that is really too big for large districts (and probably too small for small local districts). A total vote difference is too big for small districts. States like WA come up with a compromise to roughly cover both, while avoiding square roots.

[Alcon]

I'm not really sure I understood that (I'm only in ninth grade, so my statistical ability isn't what it should be.) I'll complete the update later today, but I wanted to note that the margin is currently 1,988. That's 12 votes away from a recount.

I think we need a recount to determine whether or not we need a recount.

[Alcon]

New projection:

Rossi 1,371,883 (48.91%)
Gregoire 1,370,456 (48.86%)
Bennett 62,802 (2.24%)

[Alcon]

With updates from Clark County, Pierce County, and some small Rossi county early in the alphabet, the new projection is:

Rossi 1,372,106 (48.90%)
Gregoire 1,370,676 (48.85%)
Bennett 62,907 (2.24%)

Rossi's lead has increased from 1,427 to 1,430. Progress!

[rbt48]

Interesting.  The Seattle Times (on-line) and Washington Secretary of State website have these totals:
Gregoire (D) 1,360,871
Rossi (R) 1,360,713

That is about 22,000 less votes counted.  What a crazy way to count votes.  Also, according to the Seattle Times, the two political parties are scrambling to get provisional voters to correct their signatures on ballots so they can be legally counted.  Here is an excerpt:

"We are calling the folks whose ballots were rejected and then we're going to their homes trying to help them to get their votes to count," Berendt said.

Ryan Bianchi, communications assistant for the Gregoire campaign, said the canvassers knock on doors and ask if the person is a Gregoire voter. "If they say no, we just tell them to have a nice day," he said. If they said yes, then they continued with the process.

[Alcon]

Interesting.  The Seattle Times (on-line) and Washington Secretary of State website have these totals:
Gregoire (D) 1,360,871
Rossi (R) 1,360,713

That is about 22,000 less votes counted.  What a crazy way to count votes.  Also, according to the Seattle Times, the two political parties are scrambling to get provisional voters to correct their signatures on ballots so they can be legally counted.  Here is an excerpt:

"We are calling the folks whose ballots were rejected and then we're going to their homes trying to help them to get their votes to count," Berendt said.

Ryan Bianchi, communications assistant for the Gregoire campaign, said the canvassers knock on doors and ask if the person is a Gregoire voter. "If they say no, we just tell them to have a nice day," he said. If they said yes, then they continued with the process.

I think you are misunderstanding what I posted...it is a projection, based on what counties the outstanding ballots are in, of the final results.

[bgwah]

Interesting.  The Seattle Times (on-line) and Washington Secretary of State website have these totals:
Gregoire (D) 1,360,871
Rossi (R) 1,360,713

That is about 22,000 less votes counted.  What a crazy way to count votes.  Also, according to the Seattle Times, the two political parties are scrambling to get provisional voters to correct their signatures on ballots so they can be legally counted.  Here is an excerpt:

"We are calling the folks whose ballots were rejected and then we're going to their homes trying to help them to get their votes to count," Berendt said.

Ryan Bianchi, communications assistant for the Gregoire campaign, said the canvassers knock on doors and ask if the person is a Gregoire voter. "If they say no, we just tell them to have a nice day," he said. If they said yes, then they continued with the process.

lol, i like the last part.

[rbt48]

Yes, I did misunderstand you.  Wow, Alcon, those are amazingly precise projections.  My hat's off to you.  I'm a meteorologist and what you have done is akin to me predicting temperatures to the nearest one-thousandith of a degree.

Anyway, it will be fascinating to see how this race turns out.

[Alcon]

Thanks rbt48. This assumes, of course, that absentee ballots are the exact same split as those already counted, though. But if I hit the vote total head on...I better get some kind of money or food from someone.

New prediction:

Rossi 1,372,364 (48.90%)
Gregoire 1,370,950 (48.85%)
Bennett 62,903 (2.24%)

Rossi's lead has spiraled from the huge sum of 1,430 to the meager total of 1,414, or an astounding drop of 16 votes. The freefall just doesn't stop.

Snohomish County is the first major county to finish counting entirely. The final total is:

Rossi 145,417 (49.94%)
Gregoire 138,935 (47.71%)
Bennett 6,833 (2.35%)

Snohomish County is the county directly north of King County, which contains Seattle. It consists of the city of Everett and various suburbs, many of them somewhat rural, as well as small towns in the north. The county went for Kerry by a fairly small margin. Snohomish County was considered a critical battleground in this race.

[Alcon]

My new projection shows a Rossi surge:

Rossi 1,370,645 (48.88%)
Gregoire 1,370,032 (48.86%)
Bennett 63,197 (2.25%)

The margin has now decreased even further, to 613 votes. The remaining counties are:

Grays Harbor 1,221 (Tie)
King 1,000 (Strong Gregoire)
Benton 750 (Strong Rossi)
Stevens 600 (Strong Rossi)
Columbia 285 (Strong Rossi)
Franklin 250 (Strong Rossi)
Whitman 250 (Moderate Rossi)
Clark 200 (Moderate Rossi)
Skagit 200 (Slight Rossi)
San Juan 150 (Strong Gregoire)
Thurston 145 (Strong Gregoire)
Pierce 106 (Slight Rossi)
Clallam 100 (Moderate Rossi)
Kitsap 100 (Slight Rossi)
Klickitat 100 (Moderate Rossi)
Walla Walla 100 (Moderate Rossi)
Whatcom 100 (Slight Gregoire)

All other counties have 50 or fewer ballots left to be counted. Asotin, Douglas, Garfield, Okanogan, Snohomish, and Yakima Counties have all counted all of their ballots.

I'd like to personally congratulate Columbia County for still having 15% of their votes uncounted the night before returns are due.

[ATFFL]

Don't be too down on COlumbia.  They just stopped the daily reporting early is all.  They are all counted up in all liklihood and just need to count any mail ballots that come in tomorrow.

Tomorrow is the last day for votes to come in.  Tomorrow we will have the official results, before the recount.

[bgwah]

I hope more ballots are "found" in King County.

[rbt48]

Latest vote totals from the Washington Secretary of State
(http://www.vote.wa.gov/general/statewide.aspx) as of 7:25 PM PST, Nov 16:

Christine Gregoire Democrat 1,367,346 48.87%
 
Dino Rossi  Republican 1,367,365 48.87%
 
Ruth Bennett Libertarian 63,062 2.25%

For those arithmetically challenged, that is a whopping margin of 19 votes for Rossi.  What will tomorrow bring?

[Sam Spade]

That is quite a margin.

Apparently we got another fifty votes from somewhere.  They broke 32 to 18 for Gregoire.

Maybe Alcon will know what county they came from, I have no idea.

[Alcon]

That is quite a margin.

Apparently we got another fifty votes from somewhere.  They broke 32 to 18 for Gregoire.

Maybe Alcon will know what county they came from, I have no idea.

Cowlitz County, a heavily union county north of Vancouver, which is just north of Portland, Oregon, reported 25 more votes. Gregoire is winning Cowlitz County by the tiny margin of 143 out of 82,680 votes (48.86%-48.51%).

I'm not sure where the others are coming from. I'll check.

EDIT: I still have no idea. As far as I know, Cowlitz County is the only county that has reported at all since my last update.