Finnish Parliamentary Election (17 April 2011)

[Tender Branson]

Still a few months to go, but I noticed a recent poll about it.

TNS-Gallup for Helsingin Sanomat (trend chart):



Most interesting is the rise of the right-wing "True Finns".

They got 4% in the 2007 elections, but already poll at 12.5% now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The usual factors then? Urgh.

[afleitch]

Can someone summarise what the witch Päivi Räsänen has said and why there has been a 'church exodus'?

[afleitch]

Many thanks

[Tender Branson]

Poll: True Finns edge their way to number two spot

The populist right-of-centre True Finns party has edged its way past the Social Democratic Party and the Centre Party, and is now the second-most popular political group in Finland.

A poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup gives the True Finns 18.4 per cent support.
     
Holding on to the number-one spot is the National Coalition Party, with 20.7 per cent support – half of a percentage point more than a month ago.

The Centre Party is largely unchanged from February with 18.3 per cent. The opposition Social Democrats continue to decline, with just 17.4 per cent of respondents indicating a willingness to vote for the SDP – half a percentage point less than in the previous poll.
     
Changes with the other parties are mostly minor. After the top four, the Greens get 8.8 per cent, the Left Alliance gets 7.8 per cent, the Swedish People’s Party gets 4.1 per cent, and the Christian Democrats continue to decline; after a brief surge in late 2010, the party is getting 3.5 per cent.

The poll involved interviews with about 2,500 people between February 21st, and March 16th. The margin of error with the larger parties is two percentage points in either direction.

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Poll+True+Finns+edge+their+way+to+number+two+spot/1135264675289

[big bad fab]

Fascinating, even if un-original.

Aren't the True Finns a bit overvalued by polls, like all this "post-modern" far-right in Northern Europe ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fascinating, even if un-original.

Aren't the True Finns a bit overvalued by polls, like all this "post-modern" far-right in Northern Europe ?

Time to deconstruct the signifiers!

[CARLHAYDEN]

An election for the parliament is Finland is scheduled for mid-April.

One of the parties likely to strongly place is adamantly opposed to the perpetual bailout policy of the EU.

Like to hear from some europeans on what is going on in Finland.

[freek]

The Finnish elections are tomorrow. Advance voting was possible between 6-12 April, 31% of the electorate already voted.

Latest poll, from earlier this month (compared with the election results of 2007):

National Coalition Party/KOK: 21.2% (-1.1%)
Centre Party/KESK: 18.6% (-4.%)
Social Democrats/SDP: 18.0% (-3.4%)
True Finns/PS 15.4% (+11.3%).
Green Alliance/VIHR 9.0% (+0.5%)
Left Alliance/VAS 8.2% (-0.6%)
Green Alliance/VIHR 9.0% (+0.5%)
Christian Democrats/KD 4.2% (-0.7%)
Swedish People's Party/SFP 4.2% (-0.3%)

A history of polls may be found here:

http://www.yle.fi/puoluekannatusmittari/

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, when will we get the first results ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, I thought Finland and Fance were in the same time zone... Well, that's better so : we'll have the results sooner.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How many percentages must a party have to get representation in parliament?
Are some parties  more open to a coalition with the True Finns than others?
Where online can I get the results as they come in, preferebly in Swedish?

[minionofmidas]

How many percentages must a party have to get representation in parliament?
Are some parties  more open to a coalition with the True Finns than others?
Where online can I get the results as they come in, preferebly in Swedish?

http://www.vaalit.fi/53022.htm

maybe?

[freek]

How many percentages must a party have to get representation in parliament?

There is no formal threshold. The country is divided in 15 districts. The autonomous Åland Islands have 1 seat in parliament, the other 14 districts have 6 - 35 seats, depending on their population. Seats are divided in each district using the D'Hondt method.

[minionofmidas]

So ~2.5% in Helsinki, much higher in the rural areas? No equalizing seats whatsoever?

I know it's free lists all round. People vote for a candidate, not a list. Parties' candidates' votes are then aggregated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So ~2.5% in Helsinki, much higher in the rural areas? No equalizing seats whatsoever?

I know it's free lists all round. People vote for a candidate, not a list. Parties' candidates' votes are then aggregated.

Free lists proportional is probably the best system ever. If only there were also equalization seats, it would be perfect.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How many percentages must a party have to get representation in parliament?

There is no formal threshold. The country is divided in 15 districts. The autonomous Åland Islands have 1 seat in parliament, the other 14 districts have 6 - 35 seats, depending on their population. Seats are divided in each district using the D'Hondt method.

Ah so it's basicly like City Council elections in Sweden (except using D'Hondt instead of Sainte-Laguë)

I don't exactly understand the free list system? How does that work?

[Tender Branson]

I'll try a prediction:

20% Social Democratic Party
19% National Coalition Party
18% Centre Party
16% True Finns
10% Green League
  8% Left Alliance
  4% Christian Democrats
  4% Swedish People's Party
  1% Others

Turnout: 72%

[freek]

So ~2.5% in Helsinki, much higher in the rural areas? No equalizing seats whatsoever?

Helsinki has 'only' 21 seats, so ~4%. The largest district is Uusimaa, which is essentially Greater Helsinki minus the city itself.

But indeed, no equalizing seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many percentages must a party have to get representation in parliament?

There is no formal threshold. The country is divided in 15 districts. The autonomous Åland Islands have 1 seat in parliament, the other 14 districts have 6 - 35 seats, depending on their population. Seats are divided in each district using the D'Hondt method.

Ah so it's basicly like City Council elections in Sweden (except using D'Hondt instead of Sainte-Laguë)

I don't exactly understand the free list system? How does that work?

Votes are cast for individual candidates, but are then counted by party, thus ensuring proportionality. I'ts basically mandatory preferential voting.

[freek]

How many percentages must a party have to get representation in parliament?

There is no formal threshold. The country is divided in 15 districts. The autonomous Åland Islands have 1 seat in parliament, the other 14 districts have 6 - 35 seats, depending on their population. Seats are divided in each district using the D'Hondt method.

Ah so it's basicly like City Council elections in Sweden (except using D'Hondt instead of Sainte-Laguë)

I don't exactly understand the free list system? How does that work?

Votes are cast for individual candidates, but are then counted by party, thus ensuring proportionality. I'ts basically mandatory preferential voting.

And seats are allocated to the candidates with the largest number of votes within each list, up to the total number of seats won by the list.

[Tender Branson]

Live Stream:

http://areena.yle.fi/player/index.php?stream=2349&language=en

Not understanding a word, but whatever ...

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls in a few seconds.

[Hash]

KOK 20.2
SDP 19.5
PS 18.6
KESK 17.3
VAS 8.3
GRN 6.4

[Hash]

KD 4.3, SFP 3.5, Pirates 0.4