2012: The Extreme Scenarios

[Skill and Chance]

The purpose of this thread is to consider the biggest landslides that are realistically possible in the 2012 presidential election.  Let's see what the map might look like in the extremes

Scenario 1:  Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee, unemployment is 14.5% in October of 2012

Scenario 2: Obama vs. Palin, unemployment is 5.8% in October of 2012. 

[Yelnoc]

1. Obama vs. [Your Favorite GOPer]

2.  Obama vs. [Your Least Favorite GOPer]

[tmthforu94]

1. Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Thune

14.5% would lead to Obama's approvals being in the mid to low 30's, leading to a crushing defeat for the President.

2. Obama/Biden vs. Palin/Demint

Obama's approvals would be around 60% in this scenario, with Independents swinging back towards him and Palin only managing to win the conservative base.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The purpose of this thread is to consider the biggest landslides that are realistically possible in the 2012 presidential election.  Let's see what the map might look like in the extremes

Scenario 1:  Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee, unemployment is 14.5% in October of 2012

Scenario 2: Obama vs. Palin, unemployment is 5.8% in October of 2012. 

Scen1:  Obama loses to Pence in 50 state sweep with Obama winning 95% of D.C.
Scen2:  Obama routs Palin along the lines that the others posted

[Penelope]

5.8% Unemployment? That would be a landslide of Reagan-esque proportions...

Obama/Biden v. Palin/DeMint

...and 14.6%

Obama/Biden v. Romney/Jindal

[5280]

14.6% unemployment would look something like this

Below 4% unemployment

[Miles]

Assuming the economy stays the same or gets marginally better...

Best Case:

Obama/Biden vs. Palin/Huckabee

Obama/Biden-385
Palin/Huckabee-153

70%= Safe
50%= Likely
40%= Lean
30%= Slight

Worst Case:

Obama/Biden vs. Thune/Ryan

Thune/Ryan-307
Obama/Biden-231

70%= Safe
50%= Likely
40%= Lean
30%= Slight

[Phony Moderate]

[Lief 🗽]

1. Obama wins Hawaii, Vermont and DC.
2. Obama wins everything but the Mountain West trio, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.

[Phony Moderate]

1. Obama wins Hawaii, Vermont and DC.
2. Obama wins everything but the Mountain West trio, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi.

America is far too polarised for either of those results to occur.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Why do some people have states going by 30% margins? No-one's mentioned a thirs party candidate yet.

[Miles]

Why do some people have states going by 30% margins? No-one's mentioned a thirs party candidate yet.

I'm not reflecting actual percentages of victory in my maps. 30% just means that the candidate is slightly favored.

[-]

Assuming the economy stays the same or gets marginally better...

Best Case:

Obama/Biden vs. Palin/Huckabee

Obama/Biden-385
Palin/Huckabee-153

70%= Safe
50%= Likely
40%= Lean
30%= Slight


Worst Case:

Obama/Biden vs. Thune/Ryan

Thune/Ryan-307
Obama/Biden-231

70%= Safe
50%= Likely
40%= Lean
30%= Slight

I'd say that's about right, Miles.

[Lief 🗽]

If you seriously think Obama is going to win anywhere near 200 electoral votes with unemployment at almost 15%, you are hopelessly deluded.

[Miles]

Now maps that address the actual scenarios....

Scenario 1:  Obama vs. Romney or Huckabee, unemployment is 14.5% in October of 2012

Scenario 2: Obama vs. Palin, unemployment is 5.8% in October of 2012.  


With 14.5% unemployment:

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Ryan

Romney/Ryan-333
Obama/Biden-205

70%= Safe
50%= Likely
40%= Lean
30%= Slight


With 5.8% unemployment:

Obama/Biden vs. Palin/Huckabee

Obama/Biden-385
Palin/Huckabee-153

70%= Safe
50%= Likely
40%= Lean
30%= Slight

[Miles]

If you seriously think Obama is going to win anywhere near 200 electoral votes with unemployment at almost 15%, you are hopelessly deluded.

No matter what, Obama will carry:

-the Left Coast (CA+WA+OR) = 74 EV
-IL = 20 EV
-NY= 30 EV
-most of New England (CT+VT+RI+MA) = 25 EV
-HI = 4 EV
- MD+DE+DC= 16 EV
-He'll PROBABLY win MN = 10 EV

Thats a minimum of 179 EVs. He could get near 200.

[CatoMinor]

[Miles]

Now thats extreme....

[Phony Moderate]

lol

[Lief 🗽]

If you seriously think Obama is going to win anywhere near 200 electoral votes with unemployment at almost 15%, you are hopelessly deluded.

No matter what, Obama will carry:

-the Left Coast (CA+WA+OR) = 74 EV
-IL = 20 EV
-NY= 30 EV
-most of New England (CT+VT+RI+MA) = 25 EV
-HI = 4 EV
- MD+DE+DC= 16 EV
-He'll PROBABLY win MN = 10 EV

Thats a minimum of 179 EVs. He could get near 200.

No, he's not carrying most of those states if unemployment goes up 6%. He's already pretty close to 50-50 (or worse) approvals in WA, OR, and IL, and his approvals are hardly spectacular in MA or CT or CA or NY. The idea that he'd win Minnesota in this scenario (a state he only won by 10 points while winning nationally by nearly 7) is ridiculous. A 15% unemployment rate would be the highest since the Great Depression, would mean a U6 of 25% or 30%, and approval ratings in the low 30s. He would lose in a nearly 50-state landslide.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

He'd still have DC even with 15% unemployment.

[Skill and Chance]

lol

The top one would be 20% unemployment, a $10 trillion deficit with China threatening to end all trade and seize all US assets in China if it is not paid in full by year's end, and a debate gaffe where he curses the Constitution and vows to ignore it completely.

The bottom one would be record low unemployment (think %), a $1 trillion government surplus, 70% approval of HCR, and Obama convinces Ahmadinejad and Kim Jong Il's son to voluntarily disband their armies and make their countries open capitalist democracies.