UT: Rasmussen: Mike Lee (R) now with more than 60% support

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Utah Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-10-14

Summary: D: 28%, R: 61%, I: 4%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Whacker77]

Must be nice to know you have no worries about being elected.  As a conservative, I'm looking forward to seeing this guy in action.  He's a former clerk for Alitio.  I know that won't make the more liberal guys on the board happy, but I'm interested to see what type of profile he takes.  I kind of hope it leads to Hatch being replaced with Chafetz in 2012.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Chaffetz has been salivating over Hatch's Senate seat since he got elected. I would put money on him running against Hatch in 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's one state where the Republicans can nominate kooks with impunity.

[Skill and Chance]

Chaffetz has been salivating over Hatch's Senate seat since he got elected. I would put money on him running against Hatch in 2012.

I have little doubt that Chaffetz successfully primaries Hatch  in 2012.  However, he may have to contend with Matheson in the general if it is a more neutral year. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Chaffetz has been salivating over Hatch's Senate seat since he got elected. I would put money on him running against Hatch in 2012.

I have little doubt that Chaffetz successfully primaries Hatch  in 2012.  However, he may have to contend with Matheson in the general if it is a more neutral year. 

Matheson isn't going to run for the Senate. The only way in which he'd have a realistic chance would be if he ran in a midterm year, with an unpopular Republican president, against a complete nutjob. And even then the nutjob would be favored. The only real question is whether the Republicans cede a Salt Lake City-based seat to Matheson or try to gerrymander him out of existence again.

[Skill and Chance]

Chaffetz has been salivating over Hatch's Senate seat since he got elected. I would put money on him running against Hatch in 2012.

I have little doubt that Chaffetz successfully primaries Hatch  in 2012.  However, he may have to contend with Matheson in the general if it is a more neutral year. 

Matheson isn't going to run for the Senate. The only way in which he'd have a realistic chance would be if he ran in a midterm year, with an unpopular Republican president, against a complete nutjob. And even then the nutjob would be favored. The only real question is whether the Republicans cede a Salt Lake City-based seat to Matheson or try to gerrymander him out of existence again.

Or a presidential year with a Republican nominee who has anti-Mormon baggage.  Huckabee would be an example, but I don't think he has done anything nearly severe enough, at least that we know about.  If Utah ever closes to 55-45 in a presidential election, he could win a senate seat in that year.

He's only 50 and he probably has higher political ambitions.  He's probably waiting for a good year to run for Governor.   

[Whacker77]

Is there a state where Democrats have ability to vote in hard lefties as easily as Utah does hard conservatives?  Vermont?  Not really sure.

[Skill and Chance]

Is there a state where Democrats have ability to vote in hard lefties as easily as Utah does hard conservatives?  Vermont?  Not really sure.

Vermont definitely qualifies.  In 2006, Bernie Sanders, who campaigned as a self-described socialist got over 65% there.

Also consider Rhode Island, where Sheldon Whitehouse beat the most moderate Republican in the modern era and became one of the most reliable liberal votes in the senate.

[albaleman]

Why are they wasting time and money polling Utah?

[Miles]

Chaffetz has been salivating over Hatch's Senate seat since he got elected. I would put money on him running against Hatch in 2012.

I have little doubt that Chaffetz successfully primaries Hatch  in 2012.  However, he may have to contend with Matheson in the general if it is a more neutral year. 

Hatch is gone in 2012; he says he'll be running in 2012 though. I think UT will end up being a contest between Bridgewater and Chaffetz in 2012. Chaffetz was a Democrat from 1985-1990; that could be a big liability and could compromise his purity at the GOP Convention. Regardless, UT will be very fun to watch.

National Democrats would be fools to let Matheson  give up his safe House seat to run for Senate in a state as red as Utah. The only way Matheson could actually a have a chance is if the 2012 GOP nominee is very gaffe-prone.