WMUR/UNH: Guinta (R) +12 in NH-01, Kuster (D) +5 in NH-02

[Meeker]

NH-01
Guinta (R): 48% (49% in Sept.)
Shea-Porter (D)(i): 36% (39% in Sept.)

NH-02
Kuster (D): 43% (38% in Sept.)
Bass (R): 36% (43% in Sept.)

[Rowan]

Hmm, I always thought the second district was the better pickup opportunity.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, that's weird.

[Hash]

NH-2 is traditionally the most Democratic district in NH out of the two, so it's not that earth-shattering.

[cinyc]

NH-2 is traditionally the most Democratic district in NH out of the two, so it's not that earth-shattering.

By 3 points.  (D+0 vs. D+3)   Not 17.

There have to be local factors at play.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Strange results. Kuster is an energetic campaigner and has been painting Bass as the 'incumbent', so maybe that's having an effect.

[Meeker]

Kuster's raised a lot of money, put up good ads and as ^^^ said, Bass is a quasi-incumbent. This looks from this poll to be a successful individual campaign fighting against the national wave.

[xavier110]

I know groups have poured tons of $$$ against Shea-Porter.

[Skill and Chance]

Kuster's raised a lot of money, put up good ads and as ^^^ said, Bass is a quasi-incumbent. This looks from this poll to be a successful individual campaign fighting against the national wave.

This is kind of like Teague's strategy that's keeping it close with Steve Pearce in a district he should have absolutely no business getting re-elected in this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll take losing only one of the seats over losing both, though I'd rather win NH-01 then NH-02, especially since Bass is a relatively moderate and reasonable guy while I'm sure the guy running in NH-01 is some far right winger.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'll take losing only one of the seats over losing both, though I'd rather win NH-01 then NH-02, especially since Bass is a relatively moderate and reasonable guy while I'm sure the guy running in NH-01 is some far right winger.

Not to mention Kuster could beat Bass easily in 2012 with Obama coattails, and the even bigger stain of being an incumbent. I bet that Republican incumbents in purple to blue districts will be wiped out in 2k12 even if Democrats are still unpopular.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I read a couple of days ago at Swing State Project that some kind of scandal emerged from Bass's days at the House and that if he is reelected he might find himself under investigation by the Ethics committee.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*looks into it* OK it appears that shortly after he lost in 2006 he helped set up a meeting with the then Secretary of Energy that greatly benefited a company he owned half a million dollars of stock in and that he took a position on the board of directors of in January 2007. Yeah could be pretty damning.

[minionofmidas]

I'll take losing only one of the seats over losing both, though I'd rather win NH-01 then NH-02, especially since Bass is a relatively moderate and reasonable guy while I'm sure the guy running in NH-01 is some far right winger.

Not to mention Kuster could beat Bass easily in 2012 with Obama coattails, and the even bigger stain of being an incumbent. I bet that Republican incumbents in purple to blue districts will be wiped out in 2k12 even if Democrats are still unpopular.

As sort of happened in 1996.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'll take losing only one of the seats over losing both, though I'd rather win NH-01 then NH-02, especially since Bass is a relatively moderate and reasonable guy while I'm sure the guy running in NH-01 is some far right winger.

I'd take NH-02 over NH-01; Kuster seems to be pretty similar to CSP, except Kuster doesn't have that slightly-off crunchy-granola kind of aura that CSP has, so she's more likely to become fairly entrenched. Plus Guinta is an awful candidate and would probably be easy to beat in 2012.

[Niemeyerite]

Imagine... NH could have an entire women delegation in DC: kuster, ayotte, CSP and shaheen ^^

[Mr.Phips]

I'll take losing only one of the seats over losing both, though I'd rather win NH-01 then NH-02, especially since Bass is a relatively moderate and reasonable guy while I'm sure the guy running in NH-01 is some far right winger.

I'd take NH-02 over NH-01; Kuster seems to be pretty similar to CSP, except Kuster doesn't have that slightly-off crunchy-granola kind of aura that CSP has, so she's more likely to become fairly entrenched. Plus Guinta is an awful candidate and would probably be easy to beat in 2012.

Exactly.  Guinta is an awful fit for NH-01 and would probably lose to a half decent Democrat in a better year. 

[redcommander]

Imagine... NH could have an entire women delegation in DC: kuster, ayotte, CSP and shaheen ^^

Not likely to happen this year unfortunately.