CA: Reuters/Ipsos: Boxer 46% Fiorina 45%

[mypalfish]

Boxer 46%
Fiorina 45%

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69E5D620101015

[Vepres]

...Whoa...

[Ronnie]

I would be shocked if Fiorina wins and Whitman loses.  It's nice to see that this race is tightening, though.

[Oakvale]

FWIW, Reuters has the Governor's race a tad closer than most of the other polling, too.

Not saying that the Senate race hasn't tightened, but don't get excited just yet.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fiornia has led in some polls, which is pretty mind-boggling. She's not the type of Republican who wins statewide in California, that's for sure.

[The Vorlon]

she has not run the most creative of campaigns, to be sure....

[Vepres]

Fiornia has led in some polls, which is pretty mind-boggling. She's not the type of Republican who wins statewide in California, that's for sure.

Could it be that Boxer just isn't that popular (I don't know, I heard she wasn't)?

[Psychic Octopus]

Not buying it, sorry. I will admit that the race has tightened somewhat from being an eight point Boxer victory to a four or five point one, but I don't think Fiorina is tied.

I would be shocked if Fiorina wins and Whitman loses.  It's nice to see that this race is tightening, though.

Consider me surprised if that does occur. I will literally lose my grip with reality; Whitman has spent about a tenth of her net worth, where Carly has not done anything similar to that. Carly is a much weaker candidate and has numerous flaws (Whitman does as well, but they are less obvious).

she has not run the most creative of campaigns, to be sure....

FCINO? Boxer as a blimp?

[feeblepizza]

I literally thought "Oh my God" when I saw those results.

[Eraserhead]

I literally thought "Oh my God" when I saw those results.

....? They're not really very shocking.

[auburntiger]

This would be the most shocking upset of the decade.

[tpfkaw]

This would be the most shocking upset of the decade.

Scott Brown says hi from Massachusetts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I still think CSP's win in NH-01 is the biggest Congressional upset of the decade, simply because she was left for dead after she won the primary; it was on absolutely nobody's radar. Brown's win was pretty obviously going to happen by Election Day.

[tmthforu94]

This would be a glorious win for pro-life groups everywhere. This is somewhat surprising, as I had already written this race off.

[DrScholl]

Seeing as Fiorina's numbers are very flat, most polls seem to show her with the same number or close to it, I don't think this means anything. Fiorina isn't moving at all at this point and I think think that's an indication that she has topped out.

[Oakvale]

Seeing as Fiorina's numbers are very flat, most polls seem to show her with the same number or close to it, I don't think this means anything. Fiorina isn't moving at all at this point and I think think that's an indication that she has topped out.

That's a fair point - all the movement has been from Boxer to Undecided.

[Dgov]

Seeing as Fiorina's numbers are very flat, most polls seem to show her with the same number or close to it, I don't think this means anything. Fiorina isn't moving at all at this point and I think think that's an indication that she has topped out.

Well this might have something to do with it:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/california/49_in_california_favor_repeal_of_health_care_law_45_oppose_repeal

I think that's the highest support for repeal in California.  Just a thought though.

[Torie]

Seeing as Fiorina's numbers are very flat, most polls seem to show her with the same number or close to it, I don't think this means anything. Fiorina isn't moving at all at this point and I think think that's an indication that she has topped out.

Well this might have something to do with it:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/california/49_in_california_favor_repeal_of_health_care_law_45_oppose_repeal

I think that's the highest support for repeal in California.  Just a thought though.

Folks don't like their premiums bouncing up by 20%, when the "promise" was for movement in the opposite direction (absurd promise of course, which was not really a promise, but whatever), and Blue Cross, Blue Shield in its mailer explaining the increase blamed it in part on Obamacare. One little problem is that the issues in play, are really too complex for voters to analyze, and thus they just react to the results of it all, which results suck.

[Brittain33]

I think that's the highest support for repeal in California.  Just a thought though.

Rasmussen's numbers for repeal are higher than other pollsters nationally and in various states where they've reported this (like WI). If it's the highest support for repeal in CA, that's a reflection of the pollster, not a change in opinion.

Whether they're right or not is another question I'm not going to weigh in on.

[The Vorlon]

I would be shocked if Fiorina wins and Whitman loses.  It's nice to see that this race is tightening, though.

Boxer (other than a few junk University polls) has very rarely exceeded 50% in the polls.

Even when she was running against thin air she was polling 46 or 47%.

This race looks and feels like it might be an upset.

Whenever you wake up the day after an election and there is a "shock" - the pre-election polls always looked exactly like this race looks today.

On an even money bet, I'd bet on Boxer, give me 2 to 1 odds, I'll bet on Fiorini - this is still very much a live race.