GOP looks like it may pick up Washington Governorship

[The Vorlon]

[Democratic Hawk]

I see by a pretty narrow margin - but, nevertheless, another GOP victory.

The Democrats need to get themselves organised for 2006 to prepare themselves for 2008.

Dave

[handler]

You neglected to mention that thousands of provisional ballots from King County have yet to be counted.  These will overwhelmingly be Democratic.  Look for the Democrats to retain this seat by a minimum of 10,000 votes.  Republican victories in Washington never seem to materialize.  Just ask Slade Gorton.  Thought he had it - and then King County absentees broke his heart.

[The Vorlon]

Democrats Sue Wash. County Over Ballots

By PEGGY ANDERSEN, Associated Press Writer

SEATTLE - Washington state Democrats, fearful their candidate for governor might narrowly lose because of disputed ballots, sued election officials Friday in the state's largest county.

The lawsuit would block election officials in King County, home to Seattle, from discarding about 900 provisional ballots. Party officials hoped they could get a decision later in the day.

"We have one objective: Count every vote," said Paul Berendt, the state party chairman.

The legal wrangling is the result of the closest gubernatorial race in state history. As of Friday morning, Republican Dino Rossi led Democrat Christine Gregoire by about 3,600 votes out of over 2.7 million counted. The count could drag on into next week.

Counties estimated they have about 85,000 ballots left to count, mostly provisional ballots such as those that are the subject of the Democrats' lawsuit. King County has about 25,000 ballots left to count, mostly provisionals — which are essentially backup ballots that are cast when a resident's registration is in dispute.

Democrats demanded that King County not discard hundreds of provisional ballots and give the party — and the voters — a chance to fix technical problems, such as not signing the ballot envelope.

The move was criticized by Republicans, who said Democrats threatened to turn the gubernatorial election into "another Florida."

Thus far, the county has declined to count about 900 provisional ballots because they did not include a proper signature. The voters were being notified of the deficiency and have until Tuesday to submit the proper signature verification.


___

[bgwah]

I'm thinking Rossi won, but out of 85,000 ballots left, 25,000 are estimated to be from King County. Other counties with ballots left are counties that lean Rossi, but not by huge margins like Gregoire leads in King. So a Gregoire win is possible, but Rossi is more likely.

Definately have to wait a few more days. Good chance of recount.

[ATFFL]

We should know a lot more after all the counties who are scheduled to report in today do so.  20 counties are scheduled to report mroe results today, including King County.

[Sam Spade]

Link to site with state numbers:

http://vote.wa.gov/general/statewide_results.aspx?o=7FR30bVZqpnn5rCqJv1pVg%3d%3d

Link to approximate ballots left:

http://vote.wa.gov/general/status.aspx

We have already had about 3,500 ballots or so today, with about 81,500 left.  Rossi gained by about 400 votes.

This afternoon we'll get reports from a number of places, including King County @ 4:00 PM which has 25,000 of those ballots out and should help clear this race further.

[Sam Spade]

Just as an observation, I've been reading that the Democrats are starting to sue over "not all the ballots being counted" and other nonsense.

Link:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/aplocal_story.asp?category=6420&slug=WA%20Election%20Lawsuit

This tells me that Gregoire thinks Rossi is going to win with the next 81,000 ballots out, and that they're getting their lawyering machinery ready.

[bgwah]

Whats interesting is that with every update, Ruth Bennet seems to go up .01%.

[Machiavel]

Link to site with state numbers:

http://vote.wa.gov/general/statewide_results.aspx?o=7FR30bVZqpnn5rCqJv1pVg%3d%3d

Link to approximate ballots left:

http://vote.wa.gov/general/status.aspx

Despite the seemingly large number of King ballots left, the makeup of the votes outstanding is representative of the state, meaning Rossi still has an advantage.

If you allocated all the ballots left to be counted in each county based on the percentage of the vote each candidate received in that county, Rossi would net 36,360 votes to Gregoire's 35,863, a 497 vote advantage for Rossi.

Given that a large number of the provisional ballots won't end up being counted, Gregoire needs an extraordinary swing out of the remaining ballots.

[Sam Spade]

Roughly 14,000 more of those King County ballots have come in with nearly 20,000 more from other counties.

Results as of 6:00 PM PST right now:

Dino Rossi 1,342,230 (48.90%)
Christine Gregoire 1,341,366 (48.87%)
Ruth Bennett 60,955 (2.22%)

Rossi's lead is now down to 864 votes.

However, there are now only around 11,000 ballots left from King County out of roughly 53,123 total.

We should get reports still today from Benton, Clark, Cowlitz and Spokane Counties.

If the vote goes as before, these ballots should favor Rossi, except Cowlitz, which should be a wash.

Otherwise, we wait until Monday for more ballot results.

I am now more confident in making a prediction that Rossi will win the original count and that there will be a extremely hard fought and lawyered recount.

[ATFFL]

Right now Rossi's lead is 1920 with 41623 ballots left to count.  Benton, which is heavily Republican, apparently missed today's report.

[bgwah]

Ruth did it again, now shes as 2.21%!!!

Damn Gregoire, she didn't even try and now look what happened. You stupid bitch.

Oh well, democrats completely took over the legislative branch so I guess that sorta makes up for this.

[rbt48]

Washington State's ecetoral system is a good example of why post card voting should not be practiced.  It takes forever for them to count the votes.  Maybe someday technology will catch up to their system.

[Cashcow]

Depends on where the ballots are from. I've heard King County - that suggests a win for Gregoire.

[agcatter]

about a quarter of the outstanding ballots are from King County.

[NHPolitico]

GOP vote count observers are saying that the 11,000 remaining King County ballots shouldn't be worse than Friday's results based on where exactly they look to be from. Rossi remains in a very strong position to pull this out.  If he can get through tomorrow in a strong position, he's probably in coast mode.

[jimrtex]

Washington State's ecetoral system is a good example of why post card voting should not be practiced.  It takes forever for them to count the votes.  Maybe someday technology will catch up to their system.

The problem is that they accept ballots with election day postmarks.  Most other states require mail-in ballots to be received by election day (with some exceptions for overseas ballots).

[The Vorlon]

If you simply take the remaining ballots by county and assume they distribute like the rest of the ballots cast in that county, Rossi seems to have a modest edge going forward.

There are, according tot he SEc of State, and ESTIMATED 21666 ballots left to count, about 4000 worth in King County.

Rossi's best hopes are Yakima and Benton counties - vounties he won +/- 2 to 1, and where there are 4700 ish ballots left to go...

This thing looks doomed for a recount either way.. and count challenges... and lawyers... a mini Florida 2000....

Glad Washington gets it and not the entire Nation

[Whacker77]

I just saw on CNN that a large batch of King county ballots miraculously appeared yesterday.  To no one's amazement, the democrat, Gregoire, stormed to the lead by 152 votes.  The state has until tomorrow to count the last 22,000 ballots.

They really need a new system in Washington state to count ballots.  This system just ain't working.

[elcorazon]

I just saw on CNN that a large batch of King county ballots miraculously appeared yesterday.  To no one's amazement, the democrat, Gregoire, stormed to the lead by 152 votes.  The state has until tomorrow to count the last 22,000 ballots.

They really need a new system in Washington state to count ballots.  This system just ain't working.

It was working fine until the democrat took the lead.

I'm waiting for all the outrage from Republicans in the event that Gregoire "wins" once the original count is done and Rossi challenges the result.  lol.

[Alcon]

For those who care, I've been doing this same kind of projection thing for days in the Gubernatorial forum.

Here's the URL:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=12626.0

Updated daily or when a major county reports.

[agcatter]

The exact same thing occurred in 2000 with Cantwell - Gorton.  I remember reading an article two or three days before the deadline for the final count saying that both sides believed with the remaining outstanding ballots Gorton had the advantage.

Two days later Cantwell "surprisingly" had taken a two thousand vote lead.  Another "surprise".

Republicans, just be glad the Presidential race was not close enough for another late ballot "surprise".  Thankfully. Democrats didn't get with in cheating distance. 

I'll take the White House over the Washington governor's mansion any day of the week.  So would the Dems.

[Nym90]

The exact same thing occurred in 2000 with Cantwell - Gorton.  I remember reading an article two or three days before the deadline for the final count saying that both sides believed with the remaining outstanding ballots Gorton had the advantage.

Two days later Cantwell "surprisingly" had taken a two thousand vote lead.  Another "surprise".

Republicans, just be glad the Presidential race was not close enough for another late ballot "surprise".  Thankfully. Democrats didn't get with in cheating distance. 

I'll take the White House over the Washington governor's mansion any day of the week.  So would the Dems.

Is there any evidence at all that these ballots are fradulent, or that the ballots in 2000 were fraudulent?

If so, then I would strongly support a challenge to the results. But if they are not, and this is just idle speculation about cheating, then it's no better than those on the left saying the election is rigged.

[agcatter]

Fine.  I'd be perfectly satisfied with an explanation as to where an extra 10,000 ballots suddenly appeared out of King County.  I just haven't heard one.