The Hill - Penn Schoen Berland - 10 districts - WAVE 2

[Tender Branson]

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, which surveyed 4,047 likely voters in 10 open districts. The overall sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percent.

This is the second batch of results from 42 districts The Hill is polling over a four-week period. The first week examined 12 endangered freshman lawmakers. Next week will focus on two-term incumbents, and finally, in the week before the election, the polls will be in districts of long-term incumbents thought to be in trouble.

The Oct. 2-7 poll examined 10 competitive open House seats; Republicans hold two of the districts and Democrats control all the others. Republicans are winning in eight of those races, while Democrats are leading in two. Six races fell within the poll’s margin of error.

Results:

AR-01

46% Rick Crawford (R) - PICKUP
34% Chad Causey (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123991-district-by-district-arkansas

IL-10

49% Dan Seals (D) - PICKUP
37% Robert Dold (R)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123969-district-by-district-illinois

WV-01

42% Mike Oliverio (D)
39% David McKinley (R)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123983-district-by-district-west-virginia

HI-01

45% Charles Djou (R)
41% Colleen Hanabusa (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123981-district-by-district-hawaii

NH-02

45% Charlie Bass (R) - PICKUP
42% Ann McLane Kuster (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123979-district-by-district-new-hampshire

PA-07

40% Patrick Meehan (R) - PICKUP
39% Bryan Lentz (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123977-district-by-district-pennsylvania

MI-01

42% Dan Benishek (R) - PICKUP
39% Gary McDowell (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123973-district-by-district-michigan

TN-08

47% Stephen Fincher (R) - PICKUP
37% Roy Herron (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123971-district-by-district-tennessee

WA-03

42% Jamie Herrera (R) - PICKUP
40% Denny Heck (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123967-district-by-district-washington

WI-07

44% Sean Duffy (R) - PICKUP
35% Julie Lassa (D)

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123961-after-forty-dem-years-obeys-seat-in-jeopardy

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There's not too much surprising here, unless you count how close some of these races are.

[Torie]

I am shocked, shocked, I tell you, that Djou is ahead.  Who knew?

cc: Memphis

[Torie]

There's not too much surprising here, unless you count how close some of these races are.

Except Ill-10 appears to be a Pubbie fail.  So the Dems will probably get 3 GOP seats.  I am a bit suprised the Pubbie here is lagging by so large a margin, assuming that the poll is any good.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

These polls bear good news for Democrats, if anything. Everyone was writing off Lentz, McDowell, and Heck just a few days ago.

[DrScholl]

NH-2, MI-1, PA-7 and WA-3 are closer than I would have thought they would be. The Democrats are still in it, which is great.

[Brittain33]

Am I the only one who thinks the undecideds across the board are way too high for this time of year? Lots of 42-39 or 40-41 polls seem very unenlightening given that we already know all of these races are competitive. By comparison, I think Djou had 45% in the poll showing him behind.

[Meeker]

I am shocked, shocked, I tell you, that Djou is ahead.  Who knew?

cc: Memphis

There's been two other polls released that disagree with those numbers and have behind. Not sure why you're so quick to believe this one and not those.

Anyways, a lot of these margins are very encouraging. IL-10 is downright wonderful.

[Torie]

Am I the only one who thinks the undecideds across the board are way too high for this time of year? Lots of 42-39 or 40-41 polls seem very unenlightening given that we already know all of these races are competitive. By comparison, I think Djou had 45% in the poll showing him behind.

Some voters may be too embarrased to admit that they have no idea who the candidates are, and thus say they are undecided, when really, they will just be voting a party line.  Or maybe a lot of voters are cross pressured, and genuinely undecided. Or maybe the polls are flawed. I don't have a clue.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Undecideds for House races are typically much higher than in other races. At this point in the game, there are plenty of voters who are "undecided" whose votes are almost guaranteed to fall along party lines come Nov. 2.

[Brittain33]

Undecideds for House races are typically much higher than in other races. At this point in the game, there are plenty of voters who are "undecided" whose votes are almost guaranteed to fall along party lines come Nov. 2.

Ok. Perhaps House polling is just destined to suck, then, unless there's a clear winner.