IL: Rasmussen: Giannoulias (D) overtakes Kirk

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Illinois Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-10-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, I: 4%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[DrScholl]

More good news. If Giannoulias can get a good turnout, he'll win this.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Kirk will break 53%

[Franzl]

Kirk will break 53%

I sincerely doubt that.

[Whacker77]

I think this race depends on the governor's race and the downstate vote.  If Brady wins by a nice margin, it may be enough to pull Kirk across the line.  Downstate is where Republicans must rack up big totals.  If the Tea Party is real and the grassroots are fired up, this may be the hidden secret for the Brady and Kirk.  Having said that, if the race is essentially a tie, Alexi wins.

[Meeker]

This one's going to be a nail-biter to the end.

[Eraserhead]

I wonder what the numbers are without leaners....

[albaleman]

This will come down to the wire.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

any GOP senatorial candidate polling within 5 points on the eve of the election will win

[Meeker]

any GOP senatorial candidate polling within 5 points on the eve of the election will win

Do you understand that all this polling already takes the massive GOP turnout into account?

[Eraserhead]

I wonder what the numbers are without leaners....

coughSamSpadecough

[Chief Justice PiT]

any GOP senatorial candidate polling within 5 points on the eve of the election will win

Do you understand that all this polling already takes the massive GOP turnout into account?

     Final polls in 2006 tended to underestimate the performance of Democratic candidates. He's merely surmising that polls will underestimate the winning side again, & gambling accordingly.

[Franzl]

Voted for Kirk today.

[Meeker]

any GOP senatorial candidate polling within 5 points on the eve of the election will win

Do you understand that all this polling already takes the massive GOP turnout into account?

     Final polls in 2006 tended to underestimate the performance of Democratic candidates. He's merely surmising that polls will underestimate the winning side again, & gambling accordingly.

None of the polls in 2006 underestimated Democratic candidates by 5 points.

[Chief Justice PiT]

any GOP senatorial candidate polling within 5 points on the eve of the election will win

Do you understand that all this polling already takes the massive GOP turnout into account?

     Final polls in 2006 tended to underestimate the performance of Democratic candidates. He's merely surmising that polls will underestimate the winning side again, & gambling accordingly.

None of the polls in 2006 underestimated Democratic candidates by 5 points.

     I would have thought that they did in NH-01, no? Anyway, I do think that he is being rather overzealous, even if there is validity to his strategy.

[Meeker]

Actually, going back and looking at it, Democrats in 2006 underperformed in Montana and Missouri, were pretty much on the mark in Tennessee, Virginia and Minnesota and slightly overperformed in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Maryland.

But there was no widespread across the board increase due to unexpected turnout.

[Chief Justice PiT]

     I guess memories of elections can fail us, eh?

[Eraserhead]

Alexi took the lead on the RCP average which made up for Rossi taking the lead in WA.

[Lief 🗽]

Voted for Kirk today.

[Whacker77]

Maybe the polls have accurately reflected the turnout, but think about this.  In the Kentucky primary, Paul polled in the low 50's and high 40's in the last week.  On election day, he received 59%.  Lots of hidden support came out for him.  I think that might be the point the previous poster was making.  Not saying it will happen though.