rasmussen in Ohio!

[© tweed]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

[ShapeShifter]

where is the link?

[ShapeShifter]

guess I will answer my own question again

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Ohio%20March%2018.htm

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

Actually, only 500 polled for the state samples +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of twenty

Most polls are showing Bush +2 or 3 nationally now, so I suspect the down a few in Ohio and Michigan may be "hangover" from the very recently completed primarys when the Dems got all the spotlight.

A new poll actuallly has Bush +4 in Pennsylvania.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10604.xml

I suspect this the the same effect in reverse as there is a hotly contested GOP Primary, which is likely inflating the number of "likely" GOP voters due to Republicans tuning in early due to the Senate Primary.

I expect a month from now Bush will fall in PA and rise in Ohio and Michigan

[dunn]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

Actually, only 500 polled for the state samples +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of twenty

which means it's not realible

[Ben.]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

Actually, only 500 polled for the state samples +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of twenty

which means it's not realible

true but what this poll does seem to indicate fairly reliably is that Ohio is very much in play this November and alot of voters are undecided in the state...

[12th Doctor]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

Actually, only 500 polled for the state samples +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of twenty

Most polls are showing Bush +2 or 3 nationally now, so I suspect the down a few in Ohio and Michigan may be "hangover" from the very recently completed primarys when the Dems got all the spotlight.

A new poll actuallly has Bush +4 in Pennsylvania.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10604.xml

I suspect this the the same effect in reverse as there is a hotly contested GOP Primary, which is likely inflating the number of "likely" GOP voters due to Republicans tuning in early due to the Senate Primary.

I expect a month from now Bush will fall in PA and rise in Ohio and Michigan

Those are my thoughts too.  It's just after the Dem primary in that state and the margin of error is 4.5%.  So it is probably acctually way closer than the poll indidcates and Bush could very well be ahead now.

[angus]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

Actually, only 500 polled for the state samples +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of twenty

Most polls are showing Bush +2 or 3 nationally now, so I suspect the down a few in Ohio and Michigan may be "hangover" from the very recently completed primarys when the Dems got all the spotlight.

A new poll actuallly has Bush +4 in Pennsylvania.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10604.xml

I suspect this the the same effect in reverse as there is a hotly contested GOP Primary, which is likely inflating the number of "likely" GOP voters due to Republicans tuning in early due to the Senate Primary.

I expect a month from now Bush will fall in PA and rise in Ohio and Michigan

Vorlon,
My first thoughts exactly when I saw, but I didn't know the technical jargon to describe it.  (e.g., hangover)  

As for the other:  March 9-15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,022 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.  Sounds reasonable.  Quinnipiac is a name we all know and trust (nothing like an indigenous name for credibility), but can you comment on their sensibilities the way you did about some of the other outfits?

A sample:
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
   
 Tot  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Union HsHolds  
 
Approve 48  82  18  40  51  46  43  
Disapprove 48  15  79  54  46  49  53  
DK/NA 4  3  3  6  4  5  4    
               
 Algny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl  
 
Approve 48  17  46  44  60  60  58  
Disapprove 49  82  46  52  36  34  38  
DK/NA 3  1  8  5  4  6  4  

[Ben.]

Rasmussen Reports just did that poll in Ohio that we all were so wating for.  1500 people polled:

Kerry 45%
Bush 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 10%

Kerry also holds a small lead in Michigan and there is a statistical tie in PA.

Actually, only 500 polled for the state samples +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of twenty

Most polls are showing Bush +2 or 3 nationally now, so I suspect the down a few in Ohio and Michigan may be "hangover" from the very recently completed primarys when the Dems got all the spotlight.

A new poll actuallly has Bush +4 in Pennsylvania.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10604.xml

I suspect this the the same effect in reverse as there is a hotly contested GOP Primary, which is likely inflating the number of "likely" GOP voters due to Republicans tuning in early due to the Senate Primary.

I expect a month from now Bush will fall in PA and rise in Ohio and Michigan

Vorlon,
My first thoughts exactly when I saw, but I didn't know the technical jargon to describe it.  (e.g., hangover)  

As for the other:  March 9-15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,022 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.  Sounds reasonable.  Quinnipiac is a name we all know and trust (nothing like an indigenous name for credibility), but can you comment on their sensibilities the way you did about some of the other outfits?

A sample:
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
   
 Tot  Rep  Dem  Ind  Men  Wom  Union HsHolds  
 
Approve 48  82  18  40  51  46  43  
Disapprove 48  15  79  54  46  49  53  
DK/NA 4  3  3  6  4  5  4    
               
 Algny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl  
 
Approve 48  17  46  44  60  60  58  
Disapprove 49  82  46  52  36  34  38  
DK/NA 3  1  8  5  4  6  4  

Just a second Bush’s down 18% to 79% amougst independents in OH…when it comes to Jobs!...  I’ve said this poll has a very large margin of error, thanks to its small sample group but that’s an amazing figure…  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Note that there was also a Rasmussen poll in Michigan released today showing Kerry up 4. (48-44; not many Nader voters there, I guess.)

[© tweed]

I meant to say 500, sorry

[CTguy]

Just the fact that Ohio is competitive should mean Bush is in trouble.  You'd think Ohio would be a state that would be right in Bush's column.  If he cant lock up a win here then he's not going to win Florida and he certainly won't win New Hampshire or Wisconsin.

[California Dreamer]

Ohio is a bellweather state that tends to go with the overall winner. And a Republican has never won the presidency without Ohio.

If Bush loses Ohio, Bush loses.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio is a bellweather state that tends to go with the overall winner. And a Republican has never won the presidency without Ohio.

If Bush loses Ohio, Bush loses.

I would have to agree, although I'd like to think of some crazy scenario in which Bush wins without Ohio:

The Ohio result is because of a stronger-than-usual turnout among innner-city minorities - perhaps a result of effective "get out the vote" efforts in Cleveland and Cincinatti.  The Gay community, completely alienated by Bush's push for a marriage amendment, are a big help in this regard.  While Bush is strong on jobs and the economy, as well as national defense, he just barely loses to Kerry.

Meanwhile, Bush wins Florida, because there his social initiatives have galvanized Bible-belt support, and turnout among northern rural conservatives is overwhelming - pastors imploring their flocks to get out on Tuesday and "take a stand" or something like that.

Bush wins Wisconsin and Iowa, because his strength among rural and blue-collar social conservatives is just enough to overcome inner-city and college town anti-Bush turnout.

If nothing else changes from 2000, Bush wins 275-263.  If Kerry wins West Virginia (which he wouldn't in such a scenario), Bush still wins 270-268.

[CTguy]

I think Ohio is much more crucial to Bush than Kerry.

I didn't realize there was a big black or gay population in Ohio.  Does anyone know the breakdown by region or race in the state?