McCain Picks Pawlenty

[Yelnoc]

McCain Picks Pawlenty



August 29, 2008
John McCain announces his selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.  McCain's Vice Presidential shortlist had been thinning its self out from the early summer speculation to three main candidates.  Romney, McCain's main competitor in the Republican primaries, was touted for his business experience but ultimately dropped in fear that his Mormonism might keep more social conservatives away from the ballot box in November.  McCain's personal favorite, the Democratic-turned independent senator from Connecticut, Joe Lieberman, was also dropped after several state delegations threatened to walk out of the convention if Lieberman was selected.  Governor Palin was briefly mentioned as an outside shot to energy the party and try and draw the female vote but was ultimately dismissed as to much of a long shot.  That left only Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, the establishment favorite.  Pawlenty would shore up the base without alienating any independent voters, similiar to Obama's selection of Joe Biden earlier this month.  The timing of this announcement is not a surprise; the McCain campaign hopes to minimize Obama's inevitable bump in the polls after the Democratic Convention ended yesterday.

[Yelnoc]

Republican National Convention



September 1, 2008
The Republican National Committee convenes in XCEL Energey Center in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota.  Speeches scheduled by President Bush and Vice President Cheney were cancelled due to Hurricane Gustav.  Laura Bush and Cindy McCain appeared together to deliver remarks in support of the hurricane relief effort.





September 3, 2008
Rudy Giuliani delivered the convention's keynote speech.  He spent much of it questioning Obama's judgement and lack of experience, high-lighting McCain's stance on terrorism, and praising Tim Pawlenty, stating "he already has more executive experience than the entire Democratic ticket".




Presumptive Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Pawlenty then spoke.  Pawlenty focused on his experience as Governor of Minnesota and his status as a Washington outsider.  His speech was well recieved by the delegates and political commentators.




After Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, McCain's two main competitors in the primaries, delivered their speeches.  This was followed by the Adoption and Announcement of Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Pwalenty, performed by US Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell.  Norm Coleman, Linda Lingle, Carly Fiorina, and Meg Whitman also spoke on this day.



September 4, 2008
John McCain kicked off the final day of the Republican National Convention with his acceptance speech, making him the official Republican Presidential nominee.  He was introduced by a video tribute.




McCain was followed by his wife, Cindy, who was also introduced by a video tribute.  Cindy introduced the seven McCain children to the audience.  Throughout her speech, she avoided directly criticizing Obama, choosing instead to praise her husband as a "straight talker" and one who has "shown the value of self-sacrifice daily".




After Cindy, John Thune, Tom Ridge, Sam Brownback, Bill Frist, Mel Martinez, John Ensign, Lindsey Graham, Tom Cole, Mary Fallin, Marsha Blackburn, Aaron Shock, and Rosario Marin all took to the stage.  This concluded the 2008 Republican National Convention.



September 5, 2008
An RCP General Election Poll was released showing Obama leading McCain 46.0 to 44.6.

The US unemployment rate reaches its highest level since December of 2003.

[Yelnoc]

Rally For the Republic



September 2, 2008
After suspending his presidential campaign back in June, Ron Paul created an organization called the Campaign for Liberty.  After being excluded from the Republican National Convention, Paul decided to hold his own event in Minneapolis's Target Center on one of the convention days.  There were many notable attendees in the crowd including New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, former Governor Jesse Ventura, and Barry Goldwater Jr.  Tickets to the event were $17.76; over half sold in 12 hours.

During his speech, Ron Paul broke with the Republican party to endorse Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.  Pundits argue whether his choice to forsake his own party's nominee was at least partially influenced by the Convention's decision to not include him as a speaker.  Regardless, the Libertarian party had just recieved a huge boost.  Ron Paul also called the two-party system a charade and encouraged voters not comfortable with Libertarianism to vote for Chuck Baldwin of the Constiution Party, Cynthia McKinnley of the Greens, or Independent Candidate Ralph Nader.

[feeblepizza]

It's an OK timeline so far. Interested to see what goes on in the general

[Yelnoc]

I edited the polling data from September 5 and the Rally for the Republic, so if you havn't already I suggest that you reread those sections.

[Mr. Morden]

Realistically, Obama would still win in Nov., but Pawlenty as McCain's running mate instead of Palin would have interesting ramifications for the 2012 GOP nomination race.

[sentinel]

Realistically, Obama would still win in Nov., but Pawlenty as McCain's running mate instead of Palin would have interesting ramifications for the 2012 GOP nomination race.

I agree. I think Obama might even win bigger.

[Yelnoc]

Realistically, Obama would still win in Nov., but Pawlenty as McCain's running mate instead of Palin would have interesting ramifications for the 2012 GOP nomination race.

I agree. I think Obama might even win bigger.

Why would he win bigger?  It seems like Pawlenty would have narrowed the gap a bit due to his not being a gaffe-machine.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama would still win, but yes, it would have been closer.  But the most important question in this timeline is....if Palin doesn't become McCain's running mate, then what happens to Levi Johnston?  Does he ever get fame or fortune?  Does he marry Bristol?

[Lincoln Republican]

Obama would still win, but yes, it would have been closer.  But the most important question in this timeline is....if Palin doesn't become McCain's running mate, then what happens to Levi Johnston?  Does he ever get fame or fortune?  Does he marry Bristol?

In that case, nobody would ever care.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama would still win, but yes, it would have been closer.  But the most important question in this timeline is....if Palin doesn't become McCain's running mate, then what happens to Levi Johnston?  Does he ever get fame or fortune?  Does he marry Bristol?

In that case, nobody would ever care.

Lunar would care.  Or at least, I'm certain that the Lunar of this universe cares about the Levi of the alt-universe, where Palin was never on a national ticket.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Obama would still win, but yes, it would have been closer.  But the most important question in this timeline is....if Palin doesn't become McCain's running mate, then what happens to Levi Johnston?  Does he ever get fame or fortune?  Does he marry Bristol?

In that case, nobody would ever care.

Lunar would care.  Or at least, I'm certain that the Lunar of this universe cares about the Levi of the alt-universe, where Palin was never on a national ticket.

Yelnoc, Lunar have to make a cameo appearance here.

[sentinel]

Realistically, Obama would still win in Nov., but Pawlenty as McCain's running mate instead of Palin would have interesting ramifications for the 2012 GOP nomination race.

I agree. I think Obama might even win bigger.

Why would he win bigger?  It seems like Pawlenty would have narrowed the gap a bit due to his not being a gaffe-machine.

He's boring, uncharismatic. Palin was a gaffee machine but she sure got the base revved up.

[Yelnoc]

Realistically, Obama would still win in Nov., but Pawlenty as McCain's running mate instead of Palin would have interesting ramifications for the 2012 GOP nomination race.

I agree. I think Obama might even win bigger.

Why would he win bigger?  It seems like Pawlenty would have narrowed the gap a bit due to his not being a gaffe-machine.

He's boring, uncharismatic. Palin was a gaffee machine but she sure got the base revved up.

Maybe, but she dorve away the independents.


And I'm guessing Lunar is a board member?

And guys, I'm sorry if you think this is off to a slow, boring start, but after the election yuo will begin to see some real changes.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I doubt Pawlenty would change anything important here regarding 2008 outcome.

Unless you're prepearing a really sophisticated butterfly, eliminating a future Tea Party key face.

[big bad fab]

Pawlenty president after McCain's premature death, eh ?

Please keep on this TL: McCain/Pawlenty was the ticket I wanted back then.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Please keep on this TL: McCain/Pawlenty was the ticket I wanted back then.

Pawlenty is a shame for the Polish people.

[Yelnoc]

Economic Crash



September 6-29, 2008
The financial crisis that began in 2007 after the housing bubble popped and the subprime mortgage fiasco was exposed reached its peak in September of 2008.  On September 6, it was announced that the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac corporations were being placed into a conservatorship run by the FHFA.  This decision had a chain effect on the Wall Street financial sector.  On September 15, the Lehman Brothers holding company filed for bankruptcy.  The day before, Merill Lynch had been bought by Bank of America.  Meanwhile, American Investment Group was suffering a liquidity crisis after its credit ratings were downloaded below AA.  The United States Federal Reserve was forced to offer an $85 billion rescue agreement to the corporation on September 16 in hopes of preventing the crisis from worsening.




The failure of these financial giants caused a bank run, in which people began withdrawing their assets from banks.  This interrupted the ability of corporations to replace their short-term debt.  On September 18, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke met with key legislatures to propose a $700 billion emergency bail-out.  This prompted John McCain to suspend his campaign and return to Washington D.C. to work on the proposal.  Unfortunately, the hope of a bail-out was unable to prevent Washington Mutual from folding, followed quickly by Wachovia.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think all Pawlenty does is MAAAYBE reduce the size of the margins in the Midwest.

The right-wing were pretty unenthusiastic about McCain, Palin fired them up, and I doubt Pawlenty would have been able to do that.

[Yelnoc]

Pawlenty Interviews


September 17, 2008
Republican VP candidate Tim Pawlenty was interviewed by CBS News Sunday Morning host Charles Osgood earlier in the week.  The first segment of the interview was aired on this day.  It was generally well received, with Pawlenty coming off as prepared and knowledgeable about a broad range of topics. 

 


September 19, 2008
An RCP General Election Poll was released showing Obama leading McCain 47.1 to 45.6.  This marks the end of McCain’s post-convention bounce, which had kept him above Obama for the past two weeks.  Obama overtaking McCain can be attributed at least partially to fears that Republicans may hinder the stimulus proposed yesterday to try and save what’s rest of the economy from falling apart.

[Yelnoc]

I think all Pawlenty does is MAAAYBE reduce the size of the margins in the Midwest.

The right-wing were pretty unenthusiastic about McCain, Palin fired them up, and I doubt Pawlenty would have been able to do that.

Like I said, Pawlenty allows McCain to hold on to some of the independents; he is also still a socon that would allow McCain to retain some conservative support.  You are right though, he won't get the base as fired up.  Which might not be a bad thing.  Think long-term.

[Yelnoc]

First Presidential Debate



September 26, 2008
The first presidential debate of the 2008 election was held on this day between Republic candidate John McCain and Democratic nominee Barack Obama.  Ever since Ron Paul’s high profile endorsement at the Rally for the Republic, there had been a large-scale movement to include Bob Barr in the debates.  Unfortunately for the Libertarians, the format to the debates had already been decided and Barr was excluded, similar to Ralph Nader in 2000.




The debates were watched by an estimated 54.2 million people.  Though the topic was originally supposed to focus on foreign policy and national security, moderator Jim Lehrer allowed the candidates to spend the first half debating the economy, due to the ongoing crisis.  A CBS poll of independent voters conducted immediately after the debate showed that 39% of those surveyed believed it was a tie, 36% thought Obama won, and 25% insisted McCain had triumphed.




September 28, 2008
An RCP General Election Poll was released showing Obama leading McCain 47.4 to 44.2.  While the Presidential debate may be part of the cause in McCain’s continued steady decline, it can be asserted that many voters are not impressed by the way the Republican Party is handling the financial crisis, which reflects poorly on his campaign.

[Yelnoc]

Vice Presidential Debate



October 2, 2008
Senator Joe Biden met in St. Louis for the one and only Vice Presidential Debate.  The debate broke 45 million viewers, up from 2004.  The candidates debated for 90 minutes a wide variety of topics.  A poll conducted by CBS immediately after the debates found that 39% of those surveyed had thought Governor Pawlenty won, 32% believed Senator Biden to be the winner, and 29% considered the debate a draw.




October 5, 2008
An RCP General Election Poll was released showing Obama leading McCain 48.0 to 44.8.  Pawlenty’s performance gave McCain a mild boost, however, Obama has also continued to climb in the polls.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I have a feeling Obama will win, but Pawlenty will be set up much better for 2012. Anyway, interesting timeline.

[Yelnoc]

Second Presidential Debate



October 7, 2008
The Second Presidential debate of the election, the first in the town hall format, was held at the Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.  Moderator Tom Brokaw opened up the debate by saying that “since the first debate, a lot had changed in the world and for the worse”.  A CBS poll of unaffiliated voters conducted immediately afterwards showed that 37% thought that Obama had won it, 29% favored McCain, and 34% believed it to be a tie.




October 12, 2008
An RCP General Election Poll was released showing Obama leading McCain 47.1 to 44.3.  Despite his performance in the debate, Obama’s poll numbers have dropped slightly since last week’s RCP poll.  McCain’s numbers also dropped slightly.