The Home Stretch

[Joe Biden 2020]

Will October less than 24 hours away on the East Coast, we are entering the home stretch of the 2010 Mid-Term Campaign.

Who do you see winning the major races you will be voting on?  Include Governor, Lt Governor (if your state is not on the same ticket) Senate, US House, and the major downballot races that other people on this forum might be interested in.

For our international friends, feel free to handicap any race in a particular US State.

Also, do you plan to vote in October in the early voting in your state?

For Oklahoma, here's how I see things playing out:

Jari Askins (D) defeating Mary Fallin (R) for Governor.
Kenneth Corn (D) defeating Todd Lamb (R) for LtG.
Tom Coburn (R) defeating Jim Rogers (D) for US Senate
Tom Cole (R) is unopposed for CD-4
Sally Kern (R) will defeat her transgendered opponent in a classic race for the lulz of Oklahoma politics.

[Eraserhead]

Askins isn't winning anything, bro.

In my state, the Democrats will win all of the big statewide races (Governor + LG, both US Senate seats, AG, etc.) and my Congressman (Scott Murphy) will be re-elected.

[Franzl]

The race for Senate in Illinois is a true toss-up. Although I think Giannoulias has a slight edge, I intend to vote for Mark Kirk and still believe he has a shot at winning. We'll see.

I will vote for incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, but his chances of being re-elected have gotten quite low. During the summer, I did continue to hope that people would turn away from Bill Brady once they got to know him...but that hasn't happened. Guess we have to get used to the idea of having a creationist as governor of Illinois....what a thought.

Jerry Costello will easily be re-elected in IL-12....but I'll likely vote Green out of protest. I can't respect a man that bases his vote on healthcare reform on whether or not abortion language is strong enough. If he at least had a real reason to vote against it, I might be able to respect him more... Just one example. He also gets lots and lots of pork....senseless pork, I might add. I just don't like him. That said, he's clearly better than the Tea Party alternative....and I am quite grateful this isn't a swing district when I think of how awful that woman is...

I expect most Democrats will retain their offices at state level otherwise....there's no way any Republican is beating Lisa Madigan, for example....not even this year.

Oh, and yes, I'll be voting early because I'm going back to Germany at the end of October, earlier than the election.

[Ronnie]

She may be "Askins for your vote", but it doesn't mean that she is going to get any.  Haha, that joke never gets old.

The California governor's race is a tossup, and the senatorial race is Lean Dem.  Pretty straightforward.

[Mr.Phips]

I see Cuomo winning by around 15 points and Gillibrand winning by around the same.  Schumer wins and Democrats hold the top offices.  Scott Murphy wins reelection by six points. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Democrats win all offices with the exception of Attorney General, where Cooley (R) beats Harris (D). Lieutenant Governor will be close, however.

[xavier110]

Cuomo by about 15%, Gillibrand by 12%, Schumer by 24%, Tim Bishop by about 3%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rigell beats Nye, right now I'd say by around 52-45. That's the only noteworthy race here; I'm sure the Republicans will retain their stranglehold on the Virginia Beach City Council (blah blah, technically nonpartisan).

[J. J.]

Toomey takes the Senate seat; I have contributed to him.

Corbett is the next Governor; I will grudgingly vote for him.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Will October less than 24 hours away on the East Coast, we are entering the home stretch of the 2010 Mid-Term Campaign.

Who do you see winning the major races you will be voting on?  Include Governor, Lt Governor (if your state is not on the same ticket) Senate, US House, and the major downballot races that other people on this forum might be interested in.

For our international friends, feel free to handicap any race in a particular US State.

Also, do you plan to vote in October in the early voting in your state?

For Oklahoma, here's how I see things playing out:

Jari Askins (D) defeating Mary Fallin (R) for Governor.
Kenneth Corn (D) defeating Todd Lamb (R) for LtG.
Tom Coburn (R) defeating Jim Rogers (D) for US Senate
Tom Cole (R) is unopposed for CD-4
Sally Kern (R) will defeat her transgendered opponent in a classic race for the lulz of Oklahoma politics.

Rasmussen has Fallin up by 26 points.

Also, Fallin both got more votes than Askins in the primary as well as a higher percentage of the vote.

[Eraserhead]

I see Cuomo winning by around 15 points and Gillibrand winning by around the same.  Schumer wins and Democrats hold the top offices.  Scott Murphy wins reelection by six points. 

You're in my district? Cool!

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Lance will easily win re-election and that's the only election I'm voting in really.

[Vepres]

Senate: Ken Buck (R) should win by around a five point margin, though it could be higher.

Governor: John Hickenlooper (D) will probably win this by upper single digits, though the debates will be key. If Maes is just aweful, and thus Tancredo rakes up almost all the GOP vote, this could be closer.

Attorney General: John Suthers (R), who won by a ten point margin in 2006 of all years, will coast to reelction.

Secretary of State: Mike Coffman won this in 2006 by a slim margin. He retired to be elected to the 5th CD. The Democrats cannot hold this.

Treasurer: Cary Kennedy (D), who only won by a few points is going down.

CO-02: Polis (D) will win reelection handily, even though his opponent is a libertarian Republican.

HD-12: Open seat, should be a Democratic hold, though the Republican is running an excellent campaign.

[tmthforu94]

Senate: Coats will defeat Ellsworth by 10-15 points
IN-08: Buchshon will defeat Van Haaften by 10-15 points
IN-09: Young will defeat Hill by 0-5 points
IN-02: Walorski will defeat Donnelly by 0-5 points

Republicans will comfortably sweep all statewide positions. They will have between 55-60 seats in the House and will gain a few in the Senate, giving them super-majorities.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Governor: Bill Haslam (R) will be Tennessee's next Governor
Congress TN-7: Marsha Blackburn (R) will squash her opponent
State Rep 99: Ron Lollar (R) is unopposed
The Hunt and Fish Amendment will Pass
The Consolidation Referendum will Fail miserably in the County and will be close in the City.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Governor: My head says Kasich wins by 3-5%, but my gut says Strickland manages to hang on by 1-3%.  Hopefully, the recent polls showing a tighter race are a trend rather than a small bump/fluke (but that would require more polling).

Secretary of State: Husted (R) would be running away with this if he weren't so obviously a religious-right/christian coalition type.  It'll be closer than it should be and O'Shaughnessy (D) could win, but I don't see it happening (plus Husted is raising far more money).  Husted by 5-8% (if Kasich wins), Husted by 3-5% if Kasich loses.

Treasurer: Boyce (D) is doing inexplicably well, compared to what you'd expect.  Depends on the Governor's race.  Mandel (R) by 3-6% if Kasich wins, Boyce (D) by 1-5% if Strickland wins.

Auditor: Similar to Treasurer, depends on Governor's race.  Yost (R) 3-6% if Kasich wins, Pepper (D) by 1-5% if Strickland wins.

Attorney General: Cordray (D) by 2-6%

Senator: Portman by 10%

U.S. House: Tiberi (R) by 8-12%      

[nhmagic]

Democratic wipeout in NH - like the Republican one in 2006

Stephen beats Lynch 51/49
Ayotte Defeats Hodes 57/43
Bass beats Kuster 55/45
Guinta beats Shea Porter 52/48
And we take back the legislature

[fezzyfestoon]

Everything will likely go as expected in Jersey, but I'll be crossing my fingers for Runyan all night.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I presume that:

Barney Frank wins by a reduced margin of around 7%
Democrats hold MA-10 by about 2%
Patrick (D) wins re-election by about 4%
Bump (D) wins State Auditor by about 2%
Grossman (D) wins Treasurer by about 6%
Coakley (D) wins Attorney General by about 9%
Galvin (D) wins Secretary of State by 15%

Republicans break even in the State Senate, pick up 2 in the State House.

[rbt48]

In Nebraska, Republicans win all statewide offices from Governor/Lt Gov on down to Auditor; every race.  They also take all three CDs, including holding CD-2 by 10%.  The Republicans might pad their 32-17 margin in the legislature by another seat.

[SPC]

Governor Brown, Senator Boxer, Congressman Campbell, Assemblyman Wagner. What else is new?

[BillyW]

My beloved Texas will be a sea of red as usual on the state wide races. I live in TX-1 so no race there. There are probably only 2 congressional races that are competitive and Edwards is lagging badly so maybe only one. I am going to say the dems hold onto the border seat ( 23 ). I dont have a real good feel about that one way or the other

[BillyW]

Meant a sea of blue, of course

[Badger]

Meant a sea of blue, of course

You're learning fast, newbie.

[BillyW]

Its bizzarro world