Siena polls four NY State Senate seats (SD3, SD11, SD44, SD48)

[Sam Spade]

Yes, it's Siena.  However, it's the only polling we're going to get here.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/Siena%202010%20State%20Senate%20Poll%20Release%201--%20FINAL.pdf

SD3 (Suffolk)
Foley (D) 44% (i)
Zeldin (R) 43%

SD11 (Queens)
Avella (D) 32%
Padavan (R) 56% (i)

SD44 (Schenectady)
Savage (D) 37%
Farley (R) 55% (i)

SD48 (Watertown/Oswego)
Aubertine (D) 45% (i)
Ritchie (R) 48%

SD48

[Eraserhead]

That sucks.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, I guess the Republicans will take back the Senate. Hopefully the Democrats don't allow them to come up with own Senate gerrymander again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They did pass that bill preventing the counting of prison populations in a district as people living there, and upstate should lose a couple Senate seats to the NYC area, so even if the Republicans get the chance to draw another ridiculous map, they're doomed long-term. The bigger problem is having to draw another compromise Congressional map.

[cinyc]

They did pass that bill preventing the counting of prison populations in a district as people living there, and upstate should lose a couple Senate seats to the NYC area, so even if the Republicans get the chance to draw another ridiculous map, they're doomed long-term. The bigger problem is having to draw another compromise Congressional map.

Republicans are only doomed long term if you think the trend of the NYC suburbs voting Democratic will continue indefinitely.  The 2009 elections in Westchester and Nassau suggest otherwise.

[Smash255]

They did pass that bill preventing the counting of prison populations in a district as people living there, and upstate should lose a couple Senate seats to the NYC area, so even if the Republicans get the chance to draw another ridiculous map, they're doomed long-term. The bigger problem is having to draw another compromise Congressional map.

Republicans are only doomed long term if you think the trend of the NYC suburbs voting Democratic will continue indefinitely.  The 2009 elections in Westchester and Nassau suggest otherwise.

The elections in 09 were heavily turnout based.

[cinyc]

The elections in 09 were heavily turnout based.

So were elections in '08.  And '07.  And '06....  Elections are turnout based.  That's only a negative when your base doesn't turn out as much as the other party's.

The Democratic incumbent Westchester County Executive lost by double-digits.  I'm sure that was just "heavily turnout based" too.   Republicans in New York state had nowhere to go but up after 2008.

[Smash255]

The elections in 09 were heavily turnout based.

So were elections in '08.  And '07.  And '06....  Elections are turnout based.  That's only a negative when your base doesn't turn out as much as the other party's.

The Democratic incumbent Westchester County Executive lost by double-digits.  I'm sure that was just "heavily turnout based" too.   Republicans in New York state had nowhere to go but up after 2008.

I can't speak as much for Westchester as I can for Nassau, but Democratic turnout in 09 was anemic.  Bad turnout in one year doesn't exactly = changing of the guard or anything like that.

[Nichlemn]

They did pass that bill preventing the counting of prison populations in a district as people living there, and upstate should lose a couple Senate seats to the NYC area, so even if the Republicans get the chance to draw another ridiculous map, they're doomed long-term. The bigger problem is having to draw another compromise Congressional map.

Republicans are only doomed long term if you think the trend of the NYC suburbs voting Democratic will continue indefinitely.  The 2009 elections in Westchester and Nassau suggest otherwise.

I just don't see how a state so Democratic at the Presidential (and Assembly) level could maintain a Senate majority in the long run. (Similarly, I can't see Alabama's Democratic majorities holding).

[Brittain33]

The elections in 09 were heavily turnout based.

So were elections in '08.  And '07.  And '06....  Elections are turnout based.  That's only a negative when your base doesn't turn out as much as the other party's.

The Democratic incumbent Westchester County Executive lost by double-digits.  I'm sure that was just "heavily turnout based" too.   Republicans in New York state had nowhere to go but up after 2008.

You can not compare a third-tier election to a first-tier or second-tier. I mean, you can, but there are loads of people who probably had no idea there was an election that day and weren't motivated to care. Tons of people who voted for Obama don't know who or what a county executive is. The levels of coverage in the media are totally different, as is the advertising. If Democrats stay home in 2012, it's a conscious decision; true of a smaller number in 2010, but apathy is bigger; in 2009, it was a different statement.

You need to address the fact that you have a motivation to want this to be true, independent of the facts, because it reflects what you want to happen in the future. Aside from that, it doesn't make sense as an argument.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Pres results for NY State Senate districts:  http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6083/why-presidential-toplines-dont-mean-everything-the-new-york-senate

Also, one poll doesn't mean the election's over; some Dems are way too quick to despair.

[Mr.Phips]

SD3, SD48, and the open Stachowski district are probably the only seats Republicans have a shot in.  They need two out of three to win the Senate. 

Im surprised Padavan is winning so big in SD11.  That is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and there is a popular Democratic councilman running there. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The one that really gets me is SD-56. A 2-1 Obama district and this Robach guy still hangs on? It's like the mirror image of white Democrats in Deep South legislative districts (well, up until this year).

Stachowski only won 53-47 in 2008, I'm betting that one is gone (especially since Paladino's from Erie County). Foley stomped the incumbent in 2008, but of course Long Island isn't very favorable territory for Democrats this year. Don't know about Aubertine.

[Mr.Phips]

The one that really gets me is SD-56. A 2-1 Obama district and this Robach guy still hangs on? It's like the mirror image of white Democrats in Deep South legislative districts (well, up until this year).

Stachowski only won 53-47 in 2008, I'm betting that one is gone (especially since Paladino's from Erie County). Foley stomped the incumbent in 2008, but of course Long Island isn't very favorable territory for Democrats this year. Don't know about Aubertine.

Yeah, it shocked me that Robach hung on.  Democrats must be kicking themselves for not beating him because that is a seat Republicans would have never gotten back. 

[cinyc]

SD3, SD48, and the open Stachowski district are probably the only seats Republicans have a shot in.  They need two out of three to win the Senate. 

Im surprised Padavan is winning so big in SD11.  That is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and there is a popular Democratic councilman running there. 

Don't count out the Westchester seats, especially SD35.  That one was in Republican hands only a few cycles ago. 

[Mr.Phips]

SD3, SD48, and the open Stachowski district are probably the only seats Republicans have a shot in.  They need two out of three to win the Senate. 

Im surprised Padavan is winning so big in SD11.  That is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and there is a popular Democratic councilman running there. 

Don't count out the Westchester seats, especially SD35.  That one was in Republican hands only a few cycles ago. 

That seat is a two to one Obama district and more Democratic than the county as a whole.  With Cuomo cleaning up there at the top of the ticket, that district isnt going anywhere. 

[cinyc]

Republicans have a quality candidate in SD 35 and actually seem to be somewhat targeting the Democratic incumbent in SD 36.

The Obama percentage is the wrong metric for the suburban seats.  Turnout will be nothing like 2008 in an off-year election.  The 2009 County Exec races would probably be a better metric.  

Cuomo won't be cleaning up the NYC suburbs.  He will win them, but probably not by much.  And coattails are strongly overrated.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

[Mr.Phips]

It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

SD-35 is a far more Democratic district than any of the House districts Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008.  I think even Dukakis won it in 1988. 

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans have a quality candidate in SD 35 and actually seem to be somewhat targeting the Democratic incumbent in SD 36.

The Obama percentage is the wrong metric for the suburban seats.  Turnout will be nothing like 2008 in an off-year election.  The 2009 County Exec races would probably be a better metric.  

Cuomo won't be cleaning up the NYC suburbs.  He will win them, but probably not by much.  And coattails are strongly overrated.

Its not just that Obama won them.  Even John Kerry and Al Gore won them and won them solidly.  Cuomo will clean up in these districts.  Voters almost never split their tickets to vote against an incumbent unless they have a scandal.   This is why I am predicting that Republicans pick up just one seat in New York(NY-29), while I have them getting three in Ohio, and four in Pennslyvania.  Coattails are very important for ousting an incumbent absent a scandal. 

[cinyc]

It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

SD-35 is a far more Democratic district than any of the House districts Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008.  I think even Dukakis won it in 1988.  

SD-35 was held by a Republican this decade.  It is not as Democratic-leaning on the state or local level as you think.  I'd be willing to wager that the Republican County Executive candidate won it in 2009, especially the parts of the district outside of Greenburgh.

[Mr.Phips]

It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

SD-35 is a far more Democratic district than any of the House districts Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008.  I think even Dukakis won it in 1988.  

SD-35 was held by a Republican this decade.  It is not as Democratic-leaning on the state or local level as you think.  I'd be willing to wager that the Republican County Executive candidate won it in 2009, especially the parts of the district outside of Greenburgh.

The district was held due to incumbency by a Republican.  Many deep South districts that were won two to one by Bush were won by Republicans this decade and Democrats did not win them back in 2006 or 2008.  Democratic turnout isnt going to be anywhere near as low as it was in 2009 this year.  

This is a D+11 district that Bush only got 39% in in 2004.  If this was an open seat, Republicans might have an outside chance this year, but not if there is an incumbent.  Id be willing to bet that Stewart-Cousins wins with at least 55%. 

[cinyc]

The district was held due to incumbency by a Republican.  Many deep South districts that were won two to one by Bush were won by Republicans this decade and Democrats did not win them back in 2006 or 2008.  Democratic turnout isnt going to be anywhere near as low as it was in 2009 this year.  

This is a D+11 district that Bush only got 39% in in 2004.  If this was an open seat, Republicans might have an outside chance this year, but not if there is an incumbent.  Id be willing to bet that Stewart-Cousins wins with at least 55%. 

The Westchester County Executive was an entrenched Democratic incumbent in 2009 - in a county that Obama won two-to-one in 2008 and where Bush only got 40% in 2004.  Yet, he lost - by double digits - to a social conservative in a very liberal county.  Few expected it.

Your main argument seems to be that Cuomo is going to win the NYC suburbs big and will have strong coattails.  Leaving aside the question of whether coattails exist, even the best poll for Cuomo - Marist - shows him with only a slight advantage in the NYC suburbs (49-43) - and SUSA actually shows Paladino up by 1 (45-44).  Cuomo will clean up in NYC.  Paladino will clean up in Western NY.  The NYC Suburbs and the rest of Upstate should be competitive if Paladino keeps the race close. 

Your other argument seems to be that 2009 was a fluke and Democrats will show up at the polls this cycle.  I see no evidence that New York Democrats are any more enthusiastic about voting in November than their counterparts in the rest of the country.  Republicans will be crawling over broken glass to vote, even in New York.

Will the Democratic incumbents in SDs 35 and 36 win?  Probably.  But I wouldn't count out an upset.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

SD-35 is a far more Democratic district than any of the House districts Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008.  I think even Dukakis won it in 1988. 

1) Strong showins /= wins

2) I was refuting the Coattails arguement.

[Mr.Phips]

The district was held due to incumbency by a Republican.  Many deep South districts that were won two to one by Bush were won by Republicans this decade and Democrats did not win them back in 2006 or 2008.  Democratic turnout isnt going to be anywhere near as low as it was in 2009 this year.  

This is a D+11 district that Bush only got 39% in in 2004.  If this was an open seat, Republicans might have an outside chance this year, but not if there is an incumbent.  Id be willing to bet that Stewart-Cousins wins with at least 55%. 

The Westchester County Executive was an entrenched Democratic incumbent in 2009 - in a county that Obama won two-to-one in 2008 and where Bush only got 40% in 2004.  Yet, he lost - by double digits - to a social conservative in a very liberal county.  Few expected it.

Your main argument seems to be that Cuomo is going to win the NYC suburbs big and will have strong coattails.  Leaving aside the question of whether coattails exist, even the best poll for Cuomo - Marist - shows him with only a slight advantage in the NYC suburbs (49-43) - and SUSA actually shows Paladino up by 1 (45-44).  Cuomo will clean up in NYC.  Paladino will clean up in Western NY.  The NYC Suburbs and the rest of Upstate should be competitive if Paladino keeps the race close. 

Your other argument seems to be that 2009 was a fluke and Democrats will show up at the polls this cycle.  I see no evidence that New York Democrats are any more enthusiastic about voting in November than their counterparts in the rest of the country.  Republicans will be crawling over broken glass to vote, even in New York.

Will the Democratic incumbents in SDs 35 and 36 win?  Probably.  But I wouldn't count out an upset.

Democrats are getting more enthusiastic now that it looks realistic that the House could go Republican.   SD-36 is a district Obama got 95% in, so Republicans arent winning there.  Cuomo will win SD-35 with at least 55%, making it nearly impossible for the Republican to win there.  

Democratic turnout was super-low everywhere in 2009 and Republican turnout was super-high.  I conceed that Republican turnout will still be super-high, but Democratic turnout is going to be a lot higher than 2009.