Why does the incumbent only get 38%? And are a third of the voters really undecided? What is the literary rate in this district?
John Adler (D) - 38
Jon Runyon (R) - 30
The so called tea party candidate, who doesn't have the endorsement of any Tea Party organization, has 8%. Most of that goes to Runyan down the line.
I doubt it is anywhere near the claimed 23%, so stop knocking the literacy rates.
This is a swing district with people unsure about a Dem who voted against Obamacare, but has been fairly partisan outside of that. The Republican, on the other hand, is pro-choice.
This district has a significant enough rural area, too. At least, it seems rural to the western part of the district.