NM-01 Heinrich Leads says PPP

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 9/25-9/26. Likely Voters. MoE 4.2% (2/25 results)

Rep. Martin Henrich (D) 50 (45)
Jon Barela (R) 43 (36)

[DrScholl]

Very good news. Looks like Heinrich is in a good position here.

[Hash]

That's cool, but a NM-02 poll would be better.

[Ebowed]

That's cool, but a NM-02 poll would be better.

Do you enjoy reading depressing things?

[Lief 🗽]

Good news.

[Hash]

That's cool, but a NM-02 poll would be better.

Do you enjoy reading depressing things?

Actually, I don't think Steve Pearce will win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There really is no good reason for this seat to fall to the Republicans outside of exceptional circumstances.

So the entire history of the district until 2008 was dominated by exceptional circumstances? I think it's more that the district has a heavy bias towards incumbents (unusually so for an urban marginal, but then New Mexico is weird).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's cool, but a NM-02 poll would be better.

They polled the governor's race and all three CDs. The results for the rest will probably show up in the next couple days.

I wish Kos would commission some polling in some of the CDs that haven't been polled multiple times already.

[Brittain33]

There really is no good reason for this seat to fall to the Republicans outside of exceptional circumstances.

So the entire history of the district until 2008 was dominated by exceptional circumstances? I think it's more that the district has a heavy bias towards incumbents (unusually so for an urban marginal, but then New Mexico is weird).

I deleted my post because I had the PVI way off in my head for this district. However, I don't consider repeated victories by an incumbent to be it "falling" to that incumbent's party over and over again. I was thinking of the special circumstances under which Heather Wilson won.