PA-10/Critical Insights: Marino (R) leads by 4

[Tender Branson]

WARNING: Only 197 voters polled, MoE = 7% !!!

40% Tom Marino (R)
36% Chris Carney (D-Inc.)

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Carney__Marino_in_dead_heat__poll_shows_09-26-2010.html

...

According to this poll, Carney holds a 2:1 lead among Independents and still loses ?

Is this district made of 50% Republicans and 25% Democrats or what ?

[minionofmidas]

So, trash poll... although a narrow R win wouldn't surprise anybody here; it'd just be a restoration of normal service.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's a district that went 60-40 for Bush in 2004. If Marino wins, it won't be because of his strength as a candidate (he's awful), it'll be because of the Republican wave and Corbett/Toomey coattails.

[Torie]

I read somewhere that Marino has some serious ethics problems or something. That is what is holding him back presumably.

[J. J.]

According to this poll, Carney holds a 2:1 lead among Independents and still loses ?

Is this district made of 50% Republicans and 25% Democrats or what ?

I would not be too surprised if there were less than 10% registered Independents in the district.  Closed primaries, registrations end 30 days before. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

WARNING: Only 197 voters polled, MoE = 7% !!!

40% Tom Marino (R)
36% Chris Carney (D-Inc.)

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Carney__Marino_in_dead_heat__poll_shows_09-26-2010.html

...

According to this poll, Carney holds a 2:1 lead among Independents and still loses ?

Is this district made of 50% Republicans and 25% Democrats or what ?

Without Scranton in the district anymore, it wouldn't be far from that. Its R+8 and contains several highly GOP counties. Only the pieces of Luzerne and Lackawanna would have any significant Dem registration numbers.