PA: Muhlenberg College: Toomey remains ahead by 7

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Muhlenberg College on 2010-09-23

Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

FYI:

The breakdown of this poll is 47% Republicans, 44% Democrats and 9% Independents.

Onorato actually leads among Independents and Sestak is tied.

(Not that it means anything with only 40 Independents polled.)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The problem with PA is that the Indies are so few its hard to get a good read on where they are. The polls do a separate poll of just independents large enough so that we know.


While a little Republican, I think Republicans are going to be 42% to 44% of the final polling composition. Connect the dots, enthusiasm gap means that the poll won't reflect current number of registered voters in each party. Especially with a 2-1 enthusiasm gap. Whether the GOP is 47% or 43%-44% is where the poll can be question. Not that its 11% higher then Registered Republicans in PA.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Given what happened in 2008, it seems almost certain to me that Toomey will win independents by a substantial margin.