Do you doubt that Palin will be the nominee?

[You kip if you want to...]

No.

I think that it's painfully clear that Palin will be the nominee. Yes yes, "it's a year and a half away" blah blah blah, but just look at the enthusiasm she creates among the right and sheer hatred she evokes from the left. We haven't seen such a sight since one B.H. Obama. All you have to do is look at the power her endorsements have had over the past year: O'Donnell, Angle, Miller, Paledino, Scott Brown. Can you imagine the power of her as the candidate? No one has ever been able to have such influence over a party like that, in recent times.

If you seriously think that Mitch Daniels or Mitt Romney or whoever can beat former Governor Palin, then you clearly haven't been paying attention for the last two years.

I guess this is the problem with the primary system though, the "non-Palin vote" will end up being split and she will be the GOP nominee because of it. Whether she can beat Obama is a completely different arguement though. Of course, there are those on the left who'll be all "Oh, I hope Palin is the nominee, Obama will easily win then", but this is the wrong attitude. If i've learnt anything from following politics, it's that no-one should be underestimated, no matter how much of a longshot they are. Would you have thought that Christine O'Donnell would be everywhere this time a month ago? Did you even know who Joe Miller was 2 months ago? Did you think that you'd be reading that Palin was some kind've right-wing Messiah on November 5th, 2008?

If the GOP do take back Congress in November, then she will make sure that the narrative is that it's thanks to her.

A Palin nomination is dangerous for the left and the right. What's stopping there being some big, career killing moment for President Obama on October 30, 2012?

[Beet]

No.

Are people finally starting to wake up? This is what I was saying 5 days short of a year ago. As soon as Palin resurfaced in Spring 2009 to go after David Letterman, you knew that she wasn't going to be forgotten about and thus, she was likely going to be the next GOP nominee.

[Yelnoc]

Yes.

Her support runs deep but is not widespread and not all of that favorability translates into support for a presidential run.  Unless no serious opposition emerges (i.e. someone other than Santorum) I can't see her getting the nomination.

[ShadowRocket]

Honesly, I just can't see her withstanding a one year primary campaign. So yes.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Nah, it'll be Ron Paul.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, I have doubts. Though I agree she's the most likely at this point - which is good cause she'd be nothing more than a sacrificial lamb.

A lot depends on the 2010 general results, btw.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I totally doubt it.

[Eraserhead]

Absolutely. It's very possible but this is going to be an ugly race.

[feeblepizza]

I doubt that Sarah will even run.

[opebo]

If she wants it she's got it, and the presidency (the last part will be easy for whoever is the GOP nominee, alas).

[Dan the Roman]

Yes.

One thing to remember for everyone thinking she is a lock for primary or formidable for the general election. Sarah Palin is likely the greatest Republican loser from citizens united. Can you think of how many corporate interest groups, even those that want a republican, would be horrified by the thought of her as President? You are going to see millions spent in the primary in unsourced attack ads, and hundreds of millions in the general if she makes it. Now her supporters immunity to reality and the general paranoia of the Republican base might let her get through the primaries on a plurality, but she will be nuked thoroughly in the general.

I have no doubt that those who think Obama would win 40 states are delusional. It would be bloody, and nasty, 2004 but much worse. But remember, the one gurranteed way to kill any enthuisasm gap is the prospect of Palin as President, and how much more motivated can her supporters get?

In the end, Obama will win 51-47 in a turnout that tops 2008. He will lose IN, and suffer badly among older voters. He will however, top 70% with postgrads, Jews, hispanics, and young voters, albeit on a slightly lower turnout. It will be the 2008 result as if the financial crisis had never happened, with a far greater cultural divide.

But I have very little doubt that would be the outcome. Such an election would have nothing to do with Obama, and everything to do with Palin. I know people make comparisons to 1980, but Palin is a drama queen in a way Reagan never was, not just in politics but in family, and don't underestimate the hostility of Americans to the idea of having a President as figure of fun.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

How is she going to do that?

First of all, this assumes she runs (right now, her position as Conservative Kingmaker is quite pleasant for her, running for president might trash that and ruin her influence later). If she runs, it will probably be in 2016.

Second, this assumes she has a strong enough base. Yes, she has some tea-party support. No, this does not translate to her winning on a "Tea Party Platform". The fact of the matter is, a large portion of the party could easily be swayed to someone else. The Social Cons she might pick up, but Huckabee will probably grab a lot of them if he runs, and if not she will still be running on a rather limited platform (A small portion of a small portion of the Republican Party). The Fiscal Cons will probably prefer someone who is more concerned with their issues, meaning someone like, say, Ron Paul or Gary Johnson or whoever the equivalent is. She definitely won't be picked up moderates due to her rather unfortunate combination of views that narrows her support base quite a bit (Social Conservative, slightly Fiscal Conservative but not enough to sway the FC vote, anti-liberal, etc).

Third, she is loaded with the baggage of being considered an "idiot" from the 2008 race, when she said some very cringeworthy things. As much of a terrible president as I think Romney would make, I cannot quite honestly say he is an idiot. Palin, on the other hand, makes me wonder. I guarantee there would be a sizable portion of the Republican Party that would choose Stalin over Palin.

She will either support someone else and try to play kingmaker, or she will run, do poorly early on, and drop out.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its hard to see her getting the nomination. From a geographic standpoint. Barring a change, Iowa is first, and NH is still second, correct? Well with Iowa you have a state that loves retail politics. Palin loves speeches but isn't a good handshaker/blackslapper candidate. We have seen in the past a candidate who had grown up in Iowa lose because he failed to show up and actually work the state, Ronald Reagan. He came back by winning New Hamphire, which I don't see Palin doing. 2008 firmly established the need to win one of those two to win the nomination. Newt Gingrich has had a presence in Iowa since 2005. Romney has a decent chunk of the vote. Pawlenty is right next door and then you got Haley Barbour or John Thune. Another thing to remember is that the Tea Party is not owned by Sarah Palin and both Iowa and New Hampshire have opted for non-Tea Partyesque nominees for Governor and Senate.

[Stranger in a strange land]

yes: she'll start off with several huge advantages, there's no way she can survive a year-long primary campaign without alienating supporters and making critical gaffes, especially since she won't be the only Far Right/Tea Party candidate. It will be an extremely nasty primary fight though.

[© tweed]

I'm not convinced that she is going to run

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

yes: she'll start off with several huge advantages, there's no way she can survive a year-long primary campaign without alienating supporters and making critical gaffes, especially since she won't be the only Far Right/Tea Party candidate. It will be an extremely nasty primary fight though.

Bingo. She is far too prone to gaffes and stupidity too do well. She is guaranteed to kill herself early on because the MSM won't be tossing softballs at her and she has the opposite reaction to how the media throws hardballs that Obama does (As much as I dislike Obama, he always has the best reactions for hard questions). Some other Tea Party candidate will trash her.

[opebo]

...Sarah Palin is likely the greatest Republican loser from citizens united. Can you think of how many corporate interest groups, even those that want a republican, would be horrified by the thought of her as President?

Why would corporate interest groups be horrified by Palin as president?

[Roemerista]

...Sarah Palin is likely the greatest Republican loser from citizens united. Can you think of how many corporate interest groups, even those that want a republican, would be horrified by the thought of her as President?

Why would corporate interest groups be horrified by Palin as president?

Why Opebo, the same reason that horrifies everyone else.

[opebo]

Why would corporate interest groups be horrified by Palin as president?

Why Opebo, the same reason that horrifies everyone else.

I don't think we're all horrified for the same reasons at all, MQuinn - I don't mind at all that she's stupid, just that she's an extreme right-winger.  And I think the corporate elite would be pleased as punch by both those characteristics.

[Dan the Roman]

Why would corporate interest groups be horrified by Palin as president?

Why Opebo, the same reason that horrifies everyone else.

I don't think we're all horrified for the same reasons at all, MQuinn - I don't mind at all that she's stupid, just that she's an extreme right-winger.  And I think the corporate elite would be pleased as punch by both those characteristics.

Three Reasons

1. Doubt that she can win. They obviously want an electable Republican candidate, since all things being equal, unless said President won't follow

2. Ground rules for a US President. She has shown disturbing trends towards demagoguery, esp. as Alaska governor. Right now she is defaulting towards conservative deregulation,  but do you really trust her or her supporters as much as you trust say someone like Thune? A lot of these companies like a rational US policies abroad, a cautious approach to social issues generally(because they tend to break up an otherwise majority pro-Buisness coalition in the electorate), and stability. Palin offers none of these. She offers total warfare on the domestic scene, who knows what internationally, and doubts as to whether she would make it through a term. Would you want that? Especially when the alternative is a neutered Obama and potentially putting Palin & and co in their "place?"The reason Bush never did anything socially was because his donors did not want him to. He sat back, and let "inevitable" movements happen demographically on things like Immigration and Gay rights.

Also, do you really think any of these people want someone who will actually attempt to follow a reactionary forign policy? Even Wal-Mart cares about its relations with China, and the Oil industry its ties to the Muslim world. What do you think Exxon Mobile thinks about a President willing to publicly oppose a Mosque in Times Square? Especially if they might do it in office. There are fundamentally lines that no President in office can cross, and its not clear Palin accepts those ground rules. Someone stupid is fine, but an idiot can be risky.

3. Cultural - Which industries actually have piles of cash lying around. Mining and Oil? They have not been doing so well. Its the tech sector and to a lesser extent Wall Street. Wall Street doesn't like regulation, but again they are culturally removed from the Palin/Tea Party thing, and again these are groups that value stability on everything except the economic policies they favor. Do you really thing rich country clubbers are going to rush and embrace someone like Palin? Pence maybe, but the issue with Palin is not her views but also cultural revulsion many of these people will feel.

[TheGlobalizer]

She won't even run.  She exerts far more power and authority as a commentator / kingmaker than she would as a candidate.  She's like Pat Buchanan on steroids, and I think that suits her, particularly since she has that telegenic MILFy quality about her.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I skimmed the OP, and haven't read the following comments, so excuse me if I'm a bit repetitive.

"If you think Romney can beat Palin, then you haven't been paying attention" is pretty much a direct quote.

But you're so wrong.

What Romney has done is so smart it's incredible. He's kept his profile so low that the media can't attack or mock him, but he has made a few appearances on cable news to keep his profile up at the same time.

Seriously, this is the smartest move ever. Palin, with her stupid comments and her constant public appearance only invites people to mock her, and thus discredit her. Compare this to Romney who has been able to remain relevant, but has kept himself out of the spotlight as to not undermine his inevitable campaign.

I hate when people call politicians stupid, because they clearly are not. Just because Bush stumbled over words make people assume he's dumb (ok you can disagree with his policies, but to say he's stupid because he said 'misunderestimate' and the like is so ignorant on your part - just look how The Great Communicator Through Teleprompters is doing!). But she most certainly doesn't help herself.

2008 was always an Obama win. No matter how McCain campaigned, no matter his running mate, the election was a vote against Bush and NOT a vote for liberal policies. With that said, it would have been much closer if it wasn't for Palin. So many people, my parents (and especially dad - who's a conservative) voted for Obama for the sole reason of Palin being so close to the presidency.

Palin has a cult following, comparable to Ron Paul. Just because she's constantly in the media spotlight doesn't make her popular or the "people's princess", if you will. In fact, the constant attention will just hurt her.

Romney has the nomination wrapped up already, it's not even funny.

[Beet]

A few comments

1- Palin can hold her own in a debate, provided she is prepared. Witness the October 2 debate with Joe Biden. Nothing spectacular, but also not necessarily horrid.

2- She'll never make the same mistake she made with Katie Couric again. For one thing, the Palin campaign has done everything they can since then to shut out Katie Couric and CBS-- not because they think Couric is more hostile to them than other media outlets, but because Couric successfully embarassed her. The media has gotten the message: It's okay to be critical of Palin, just don't be too effective at it. Meanwhile, Palin's handlers will be sure to set the ground rules for future interviews and prepare much better.

3- All indications are that she's a great campaigner. The hallmark of being a good campaigner is being able to attract large crowds and get them worked with by delivering speeches and zingers.

4- All of that said, she is very polarizing and compared with other GOP candidates like Romney, would probably cost the GOP votes in the general election.

5- I'm not all that sure she's so anti establishment as she seems. After all, she endorsed TARP in 2008 when that was convenient. Then she criticized it later when that was convenient. This makes her no different from Obama, McCain, Bush or any other politician: they do what they do because it is convenient for power. It's human nature. It's the same reason why I'm so confident she will run for President.

Re: Romney. I believe he is intelligent. I haven't seen any evidence he can get himself grassroots support. It's not as easy as it sound.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I skimmed the OP, and haven't read the following comments, so excuse me if I'm a bit repetitive.

"If you think Romney can beat Palin, then you haven't been paying attention" is pretty much a direct quote.

But you're so wrong.

What Romney has done is so smart it's incredible. He's kept his profile so low that the media can't attack or mock him, but he has made a few appearances on cable news to keep his profile up at the same time.

Seriously, this is the smartest move ever. Palin, with her stupid comments and her constant public appearance only invites people to mock her, and thus discredit her. Compare this to Romney who has been able to remain relevant, but has kept himself out of the spotlight as to not undermine his inevitable campaign.

I hate when people call politicians stupid, because they clearly are not. Just because Bush stumbled over words make people assume he's dumb (ok you can disagree with his policies, but to say he's stupid because he said 'misunderestimate' and the like is so ignorant on your part - just look how The Great Communicator Through Teleprompters is doing!). But she most certainly doesn't help herself.

2008 was always an Obama win. No matter how McCain campaigned, no matter his running mate, the election was a vote against Bush and NOT a vote for liberal policies. With that said, it would have been much closer if it wasn't for Palin. So many people, my parents (and especially dad - who's a conservative) voted for Obama for the sole reason of Palin being so close to the presidency.

Palin has a cult following, comparable to Ron Paul. Just because she's constantly in the media spotlight doesn't make her popular or the "people's princess", if you will. In fact, the constant attention will just hurt her.

Romney has the nomination wrapped up already, it's not even funny.

No, he doesn't. If Thune or Pence or Barbour wins IA, then SC, they have the nominatio locked up.

Also 2008 was not a guarrenteed Obama win. Obama threw a large lead from June to August and he really didn't regain a steady lead till after Lehman bros collapsed.

You are right that it wasn't Palin that decided the eleciton, but wrong that it was an Obama win from the start.

[Bull Moose Base]

2- She'll never make the same mistake she made with Katie Couric again. For one thing, the Palin campaign has done everything they can since then to shut out Katie Couric and CBS-- not because they think Couric is more hostile to them than other media outlets, but because Couric successfully embarassed her. The media has gotten the message: It's okay to be critical of Palin, just don't be too effective at it. Meanwhile, Palin's handlers will be sure to set the ground rules for future interviews and prepare much better.

In a GOP primary, she can get away with largely avoiding non-FOX interviews in a way that she could not in 2008.  FOX will push the meme that Palin is coming off sharp and knowledgeable and landing punches against Romney.

Re: Romney. I believe he is intelligent. I haven't seen any evidence he can get himself grassroots support. It's not as easy as it sound.

His flip on abortion + RomneyCare + the pattern of Tea Party-led revolts against frontrunners this year portend trouble for Romney.  He can still navigate his way to a win like McCain or like Giuliani, he could be derailed, even by someone other than Palin.  I think it's absurd to say he either that he has the nom wrapped up or conversely, can't win.  Either way, my money's on a long nomination fight.