PA-08/F&M - Murphy in deep trouble

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Link

Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 49
Patrick Murphy (D) - 35

Among RV, it's 46-36.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bad year plus bad district plus bad campaign generally equals Republican victory.

[Meeker]

Aye Dios mio...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Had this district pegged as vulnerable ages ago, but... er... yeah. Ouch. IIRC F&M aren't that good, but...

[Associate Justice PiT]

Had this district pegged as vulnerable ages ago, but... er... yeah. Ouch. IIRC F&M aren't that good, but...

     My thoughts as well. It would be difficult to mess the poll up enough to where they could show Murphy down by 14 if he were actually in good shape.

[Torie]

Murphy is up against a very strong candidate, so given the play of the issues, he seems to have a near hopeless task, unless the playbook changes, and folks change their minds at the margins about the issues.

[TeePee4Prez]

As the Ohio Dem party chair says "f---ker" wants his job back!  Shouldn't get it.  Oh well.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Murphy took the lead on the DADT repeal when Tauscher left Congress, so this loss will be one that really hurts LGBT rights (for whatever that's worth, considering how awful Congress is about advancing them).

[J. J.]

Had this district pegged as vulnerable ages ago, but... er... yeah. Ouch. IIRC F&M aren't that good, but...

Actually, for PA, they are probably the best college poll.  However, they don't hammer the undecideds.

PA 8 goes GOP.

[TeePee4Prez]

Had this district pegged as vulnerable ages ago, but... er... yeah. Ouch. IIRC F&M aren't that good, but...

Actually, for PA, they are probably the best college poll.  However, they don't hammer the undecideds.

PA 8 goes GOP.

I'll concede on PA 7, but you have to consider 2 conservative challengers to the right of Fitzpatrick possibly taking votes from him (Lingenfelter and a CP candidate).  Lean D even with this poll.

[Mr.Phips]

This result shows that Sestak too would have probably lost in his old district had he run again.  These areas are going back to the GOP like 2006 and 2008 never happened. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think that wherever the tea Party is coming from, the GOP enthusiasm in general is coming from the Suburbs, if not the Tea Party movement as a whole. The Bush era probably made these areas more Dem then they normall would be even with the trend towards the dems. With many social issues out of the picture and issues like spending and taxes dominating. The GOP could do well in many suburban chains. Probably better then they have since the late 90's in some. Definately Possible in Long Island and Westchester even if Gillibrand wins by 8 to 10, that indicates strong a GOP comeback in Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester etc. (basically returning to the numbers that D'Amato lost with in 1998)  Like NY, PA had a lot of off year races in the Philly suburbs go Republican. So it makes sense to see a Pro-GOP swing in these areas. Though the strength of it is surprising.

Had this district pegged as vulnerable ages ago, but... er... yeah. Ouch. IIRC F&M aren't that good, but...

Actually, for PA, they are probably the best college poll.  However, they don't hammer the undecideds.

PA 8 goes GOP.

I'll concede on PA 7, but you have to consider 2 conservative challengers to the right of Fitzpatrick possibly taking votes from him (Lingenfelter and a CP candidate).  Lean D even with this poll.

This question was brought up on another thread. How much are the "Toomey is a creature of Wall Street" type ads being run and where? How long have they been running?

[J. J.]

This result shows that Sestak too would have probably lost in his old district had he run again.  These areas are going back to the GOP like 2006 and 2008 never happened. 

2008 at least.

This question was brought up on another thread. How much are the "Toomey is a creature of Wall Street" type ads being run and where? How long have they been running?

They started strong, now have seemed to peter out.  Anyone know what the money in the race is like?

[Badger]

This is sad if true. Forget Sestak, I always thought that Patrick Murphy was more of a great potential future president.

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy will probably run again in 2012 if he loses.  He seems very ambitious. 

[TeePee4Prez]

This is sad if true. Forget Sestak, I always thought that Patrick Murphy was more of a great potential future president.

Another thing with this race and the Sestak-Toomey race.  We may see the resurgence of the Catholic extreme social right.  While it may work with some voters, it's actually a detriment even with more secular Catholics.  This race is crucial for Murphy to hold onto.  If I were Murphy, I'd actually hammer Fitzpatrick on his extreme social views on reproductive rights.  He opposes ANY forms of birth control and abortion even in cases of rape/incest/mother's life at stake.

[Keystone Phil]

It's going to be a nail bitter. Both sides expect that. In the end, there is a slight advantage for Fitz but this one is far from over. It will come down to who has a better operation on November 2nd.

In other PA Congressional race news, I'd say PA 3, 7 and 11 are pretty much gone for the Dems at this point.

This result shows that Sestak too would have probably lost in his old district had he run again.  These areas are going back to the GOP like 2006 and 2008 never happened. 

I doubt Sestak would have lost. Close race? Maybe. However, Meehan probably wouldn't have run, leaving us without a top tier candidate.

[minionofmidas]

Heya, KP.