Would Obama Prefer to Basically Forfeit 2010?

[Skill and Chance]

That way, he could run against a fully GOP Congress and have a better chance in 2012?  He certainly doesn't seem to be getting to charismatic for national Democrats, beyond some token campaigning.  I wonder if it wouldn't just be a better long run strategy for the party as a whole to not waste much time or money on anyone who is polling below 50% this year and instead bank their resourses to focus on pulling a 1948 in 2012, using the GOP congress to energize the progressive base with the threat of actually repealing most everything Obama did. 

This seems like a good strategy to me, given how exceptional this year seems to be.  It is quickly turning into an inverse 2008, an anomaly that will pass with time.  If the Tea Party platform can keep the support of more than 35% of voters in perpetuity, then liberal Democrats are completely out of luck anyway.  They would probably have to wait until the US is no longer majority white just to win another presidential election.   

[Torie]

Definitely.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Maybe the House. I'm sure he'd rather keep as many Dem senators as possible because of the whole 6 year term thing.

Another thing to consider is that if the Democrats could somehow hold the House it would be huge show of strength going into 2012 with the expectations so high for the GOP. Which might be a good sign for Obama as well.

[Torie]

Maybe the House. I'm sure he'd rather keep as many Dem senators as possible because of the whole 6 year term thing.

Another thing to consider is that if the Democrats could somehow hold the House it would be huge show of strength going into 2012 with the expectations so high for the GOP. Which might be a good sign for Obama as well.

Yes, the Senate is different, if only because of the confirmation process. I was thinking of adding that codicil, but got tired.

[Skill and Chance]

If Obama gets to make an appointment for one of the conservative seats on the Supreme Court while Republicans control the Senate, it will be the  fight of a lifetime.  They may even go so far as to give the President a list of approved names to pick from.

[??????????]

If Obama gets to make an appointment for one of the conservative seats on the Supreme Court while Republicans control the Senate, it will be the  fight of a lifetime.  They may even go so far as to give the President a list of approved names to pick from.

Unlikely. I bet Obama loses his spine once the GOP is in control. He's that type of person.

[Skill and Chance]

If Obama gets to make an appointment for one of the conservative seats on the Supreme Court while Republicans control the Senate, it will be the  fight of a lifetime.  They may even go so far as to give the President a list of approved names to pick from.

Unlikely. I bet Obama loses his spine once the GOP is in control. He's that type of person.

Or he could go for the very most liberal judge he can find in order to rally the base, knowing that he/she would be extremely unlikely to get confirmed.  Maybe someone who has written publicly about finding a constitutional right to health care coverage? 

[??????????]

If Obama gets to make an appointment for one of the conservative seats on the Supreme Court while Republicans control the Senate, it will be the  fight of a lifetime.  They may even go so far as to give the President a list of approved names to pick from.

Unlikely. I bet Obama loses his spine once the GOP is in control. He's that type of person.

Or he could go for the very most liberal judge he can find in order to rally the base, knowing that he/she would be extremely unlikely to get confirmed.  Maybe someone who has written publicly about finding a constitutional right to health care coverage? 

The base will be quicksand by 2012 unless something amazing happens. Hillary will probably end up primarying him anyhow.

[Skill and Chance]

If Obama gets to make an appointment for one of the conservative seats on the Supreme Court while Republicans control the Senate, it will be the  fight of a lifetime.  They may even go so far as to give the President a list of approved names to pick from.

Unlikely. I bet Obama loses his spine once the GOP is in control. He's that type of person.

Or he could go for the very most liberal judge he can find in order to rally the base, knowing that he/she would be extremely unlikely to get confirmed.  Maybe someone who has written publicly about finding a constitutional right to health care coverage? 

The base will be quicksand by 2012 unless something amazing happens. Hillary will probably end up primarying him anyhow.

Hillary herself will probably be going to the Supreme Court when Ginsburg retires in 2011.

Write off the surviving Dems at your own peril.  Remember when Dem partisans were crowing about the GOP being a rump Southern party and going the way of the Whigs back in early 2009?  Look how long that lasted.  Reagan had fallen even further than Obama has up to this point in his term, and yet he came roaring back to a 60/40 win just 2 years later.  George H.W. Bush was in the safest position imaginable, and yet he lost his entire advantage in less time than that. 

Are you willing to bet everything that the economy won't come roaring back by 2012?  If it did, people would not only credit Obama personally, but also his policies for getting us out of the worst recession in 60 years.  Things like health care and the stimulus would probably have supermajority approval.  The Tea Party has gone all in on opposing these policies and assumes Obama will continue to be seen as a failure.

I'm not so sure.

[Dgov]

Hillary herself will probably be going to the Supreme Court when Ginsburg retires in 2011.

Write off the surviving Dems at your own peril.  Remember when Dem partisans were crowing about the GOP being a rump Southern party and going the way of the Whigs back in early 2009?  Look how long that lasted.  Reagan had fallen even further than Obama has up to this point in his term, and yet he came roaring back to a 60/40 win just 2 years later.  George H.W. Bush was in the safest position imaginable, and yet he lost his entire advantage in less time than that. 

Are you willing to bet everything that the economy won't come roaring back by 2012?  If it did, people would not only credit Obama personally, but also his policies for getting us out of the worst recession in 60 years.  Things like health care and the stimulus would probably have supermajority approval.  The Tea Party has gone all in on opposing these policies and assumes Obama will continue to be seen as a failure.

I'm not so sure.

Or, they could credit the newly-elected GOP majority for revitalizing the Private sector and hand Obama an even more embarrassing defeat than he would get today.

[??????????]

Are you willing to bet everything that the economy won't come roaring back by 2012?  If it did, people would not only credit Obama personally, but also his policies for getting us out of the worst recession in 60 years. 

Yes, it won't come back nearly as much as 4 years ago. Secondly, we are in a depression not a recession.

[Skill and Chance]

Hillary herself will probably be going to the Supreme Court when Ginsburg retires in 2011.

Write off the surviving Dems at your own peril.  Remember when Dem partisans were crowing about the GOP being a rump Southern party and going the way of the Whigs back in early 2009?  Look how long that lasted.  Reagan had fallen even further than Obama has up to this point in his term, and yet he came roaring back to a 60/40 win just 2 years later.  George H.W. Bush was in the safest position imaginable, and yet he lost his entire advantage in less time than that. 

Are you willing to bet everything that the economy won't come roaring back by 2012?  If it did, people would not only credit Obama personally, but also his policies for getting us out of the worst recession in 60 years.  Things like health care and the stimulus would probably have supermajority approval.  The Tea Party has gone all in on opposing these policies and assumes Obama will continue to be seen as a failure.

I'm not so sure.

Or, they could credit the newly-elected GOP majority for revitalizing the Private sector and hand Obama an even more embarrassing defeat than he would get today.

There is no precedent in the modern era.  The president always gets more credit/fault for the state of the economy than the congress when both are up for election.  I presume you agree that the absolute worst scenario for a GOP partisan would be that the Dems narrowly hold congress in 2010, then a rapid recovery begins and 2011 becomes "the year of a million new jobs a month."  But the worst possible scenario for a Dem partisan also involves the Dems narrowly holding congress, only now a second recession begins in 2011 and unemployment is approaching 15% by late 2012.

[Dgov]

Hillary herself will probably be going to the Supreme Court when Ginsburg retires in 2011.

Write off the surviving Dems at your own peril.  Remember when Dem partisans were crowing about the GOP being a rump Southern party and going the way of the Whigs back in early 2009?  Look how long that lasted.  Reagan had fallen even further than Obama has up to this point in his term, and yet he came roaring back to a 60/40 win just 2 years later.  George H.W. Bush was in the safest position imaginable, and yet he lost his entire advantage in less time than that. 

Are you willing to bet everything that the economy won't come roaring back by 2012?  If it did, people would not only credit Obama personally, but also his policies for getting us out of the worst recession in 60 years.  Things like health care and the stimulus would probably have supermajority approval.  The Tea Party has gone all in on opposing these policies and assumes Obama will continue to be seen as a failure.

I'm not so sure.

Or, they could credit the newly-elected GOP majority for revitalizing the Private sector and hand Obama an even more embarrassing defeat than he would get today.

There is no precedent in the modern era.  The president always gets more credit/fault for the state of the economy than the congress when both are up for election.  I presume you agree that the absolute worst scenario for a GOP partisan would be that the Dems narrowly hold congress in 2010, then a rapid recovery begins and 2011 becomes "the year of a million new jobs a month."  But the worst possible scenario for a Dem partisan also involves the Dems narrowly holding congress, only now a second recession begins in 2011 and unemployment is approaching 15% by late 2012.

Even if it's completely their fault?  LOL, so Obama's best chance for re-election is letting the Republicans win and fix everything so he can take credit for it, like Truman did in 1948?

YES WE CAN

[Skill and Chance]

Hillary herself will probably be going to the Supreme Court when Ginsburg retires in 2011.

Write off the surviving Dems at your own peril.  Remember when Dem partisans were crowing about the GOP being a rump Southern party and going the way of the Whigs back in early 2009?  Look how long that lasted.  Reagan had fallen even further than Obama has up to this point in his term, and yet he came roaring back to a 60/40 win just 2 years later.  George H.W. Bush was in the safest position imaginable, and yet he lost his entire advantage in less time than that. 

Are you willing to bet everything that the economy won't come roaring back by 2012?  If it did, people would not only credit Obama personally, but also his policies for getting us out of the worst recession in 60 years.  Things like health care and the stimulus would probably have supermajority approval.  The Tea Party has gone all in on opposing these policies and assumes Obama will continue to be seen as a failure.

I'm not so sure.

Or, they could credit the newly-elected GOP majority for revitalizing the Private sector and hand Obama an even more embarrassing defeat than he would get today.

There is no precedent in the modern era.  The president always gets more credit/fault for the state of the economy than the congress when both are up for election.  I presume you agree that the absolute worst scenario for a GOP partisan would be that the Dems narrowly hold congress in 2010, then a rapid recovery begins and 2011 becomes "the year of a million new jobs a month."  But the worst possible scenario for a Dem partisan also involves the Dems narrowly holding congress, only now a second recession begins in 2011 and unemployment is approaching 15% by late 2012.

Even if it's completely their fault?  LOL, so Obama's best chance for re-election is letting the Republicans win and fix everything so he can take credit for it, like Truman did in 1948?

YES WE CAN

No, Obama's best chance for re-election is to hold Congress and have a Reagan recovery, as I outlined above in the GOP nightmare scenario.  It would be FDR-esque. Obama's only meaningful chance for re-election without a Reagan recovery is to lose Congress and make hay of the Tea Party.  It would be Truman or G.W. Bush-esque. 

Did the Democratic congress get blamed for the 2008 crash?  Did the Republican congress get credit for the robust recovery in 1996?  Did the Democratic congress get credit for 1983-84?  It might not be fair, but it's how it works.

[Mr.Phips]

If Obama forfeited 2010, the party would kill him.  The party is already very pissed at him.