Gillibrand could be in serious trouble.

[Eraserhead]

SUSA and possibly Quinnipiac should have polls out soon showing her in a dead heat. I guess I'm definitely going to have to vote for her in the general election now. Her opponent actually seems like a decent guy for the record though... not complete slime like Paladino, that's for sure.

Discuss.

[tmthforu94]

I could see her in trouble in 2012. I think she has a big advantage either way though because this year she'll ride Schumer's coattails and in 2012 she can ride Obama's. Though I could see a lot of Independents splitting their ballot to be "bi-partisan".

[xavier110]

I hope she loses. 2010 will be the only time we'll have to dispose of her.

[Psychic Octopus]

I haven't seen any polls showing her in a dead heat; I only recall the Rasmussen polls that listed her leading by double digits. Plus she has a huge spending advantage, having much more cash on hand.

I hope she loses. 2010 will be the only time we'll have to dispose of her.

Why?

[Eraserhead]

I could see her in trouble in 2012. I think she has a big advantage either way though because this year she'll ride Schumer's coattails and in 2012 she can ride Obama's. Though I could see a lot of Independents splitting their ballot to be "bi-partisan".

It's definitely hard to imagine her losing this year, for sure, but... things are getting very weird... and she was always going to be the weak link out of the team of three. I don't know.

[Eraserhead]

I haven't seen any polls showing her in a dead heat; I only recall the Rasmussen polls that listed her leading by double digits.

They are coming... probably tomorrow.

[xavier110]

I hope she loses. 2010 will be the only time we'll have to dispose of her.

Why?

She is a phony, unqualified, and not a "progressive." I'd rather endure two years of DioGuardi than have her in the Senate for the next thirty, forty years. I won't be voting for him (or her), however.

[tmthforu94]

I think New York Democrats need to be thanking their lucky stars that Giuliani and Pataki didn't decide to run for these two offices. If Paladino and Dioguardi are doing this well, Giuliani and Pataki would be crushing them. Okay, Giuliani may not have been crushing Cuomo yet, but Pataki would have been up big.

[cinyc]

I haven't seen any polls showing her in a dead heat; I only recall the Rasmussen polls that listed her leading by double digits.

They are coming... probably tomorrow.

Quinnipiac's poll will definitely be released at 6:30AM tomorrow morning.  I suspect SUSA's poll will be released some time after the late local newscasts have had the opportunity to put results on air tonight - but we'll see.

[Torie]

I don't believe the coattails thing. It is a largely dead phenom in my opinion, except as it affects turnout.

[The Vorlon]

SUSA and possibly Quinnipiac should have polls out soon showing her in a dead heat. I guess I'm definitely going to have to vote for her in the general election now. Her opponent actually seems like a decent guy for the record though... not complete slime like Paladino, that's for sure.

Discuss.

The old rule of thumb that "any incumbent under 50% is vulnerable" certainly applies.

But this IS New York

Let's wait for the SUSA poll, Quinnipiak is always a tad erratic so I don't jump up and down based on one poll from them.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I hope she loses. 2010 will be the only time we'll have to dispose of her.

Why?

She is a phony, unqualified, and not a "progressive." I'd rather endure two years of DioGuardi than have her in the Senate for the next thirty, forty years. I won't be voting for him (or her), however.

Thanks for helping make up for the teabaggers on our side.  You're awesome.  Keep up the good work!

[xavier110]

I hope she loses. 2010 will be the only time we'll have to dispose of her.

Why?

She is a phony, unqualified, and not a "progressive." I'd rather endure two years of DioGuardi than have her in the Senate for the next thirty, forty years. I won't be voting for him (or her), however.

Thanks for helping make up for the teabaggers on our side.  You're awesome.  Keep up the good work!

Well, I'm sorry that I'm principled and that I won't vote for a woman with an awful record (the worst of all being her work with the tobacco industry). I'm still voting for Cuomo and Bishop, so don't you worry, sweetie.

[cinyc]

SUSA: Gillibrand +1 (no specific numbers yet) - losing in all regions but NYC proper;
Schumer 54%- Sacrificial Lamb (R) 33% - Schumer is winning all but Upstate outside of Western NY

http://www.wgrz.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=87726&catid=37

Edit: Gillibrand leads DioGuardi 45%-44%; Other is at 8%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ddf78dd6-bef1-44e3-af71-225f2d2da637

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Good. Gillibrand's been pretty much a totally worthless senator. With DioGuardi apparently against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'm leaning toward actually voting for him at this point.

Shame Schumer couldn't be facing the same fate.

[Meeker]

I don't understand what happened here. What caused both Cuomo and Gillibrand to all of a sudden drop 10-15 points in every statewide poll?

[Torie]

I don't understand what happened here. What caused both Cuomo and Gillibrand to all of a sudden drop 10-15 points in every statewide poll?

Because Dick Morris predicted it would happen. Any other questions?

[tpfkaw]

SUSA poll.

Gillibrand ahead by 1(!), Cuomo by 9 (below 50%), Schumer by . . . 21.

[Eraserhead]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

[Meeker]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

[Vepres]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

The universe needed to balance out the Democratic surge caused by O'Donnell's nomination. It is physically impossible for the Democrats to improve their numbers, you see.

[Vepres]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

Well, the electorate in NY in 2006 was 45D-25R-27I, so it is conceivable that, given Republican enthusiasm, the electorate would be like the poll breakdown.

[xavier110]

I always love SUSA's crosstabs.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I must say, I'm quite impressed with Schumer's political skills, still leading by 20. I remember the little war he had with Rep. Stephen Solarz over redistricting after the 1980 census back in the day. They were going to get pushed into the same district, but it was avoided.

Ironically, Solarz got redistricted out of office in 1992 when his Jewish Brooklyn district turned into a Hispanic majority district. He ran in the primary(which was considered heresy then, as the district was made to elect a Latino representative) and lost to Nydia Velazquez.

[Eraserhead]

I probably won't vote for Schumer. There's no real reason to.