US House Redistricting: Ohio

[jimrtex]

One good thing it does is cut the southwest back to 4 districts.

[Torie]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

Did you check out the link I posted? It has the correct map and both demographic and political numbers for each district.

Is that the total score feature for the political numbers?  If so, that utility is currently hanging for me. Maybe I have too much open, and my computer is overloaded.

[muon2]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

Did you check out the link I posted? It has the correct map and both demographic and political numbers for each district.

Is that the total score feature for the political numbers?  If so, that utility is currently hanging for me. Maybe I have too much open, and my computer is overloaded.

Though it was used in VA, the total score was never implemented for OH. The demographics tab has the relevant numbers. The political score is the two party vote average of 2008 Pres and 2010 Gov, Auditor and Sec of State.

[timothyinMD]

Very good.  It's about time the Ohio repubs fixed that crazy map

[TJ in Oregon]

OH-13 is around D+9 on this map, but concentrated in the Mahoning Valley, which has been swinging in the Republican direction considerably over the decade. This version may be too gerrymandered for it to happen, but I have to wonder, could this be a competitive district by the end of the decade?

[muon2]

OH-13 is around D+9 on this map, but concentrated in the Mahoning Valley, which has been swinging in the Republican direction considerably over the decade. This version may be too gerrymandered for it to happen, but I have to wonder, could this be a competitive district by the end of the decade?

It's unlikely. Youngstown is only 16% R and Warren-Niles are 27% R. That's better than a 3 to 1 advantage for Dems there. Even with the more moderate parts of Akron on the west side of the district, without a scandal I think it will be safe for the decade.

[jimrtex]

OH-13 is around D+9 on this map, but concentrated in the Mahoning Valley, which has been swinging in the Republican direction considerably over the decade. This version may be too gerrymandered for it to happen, but I have to wonder, could this be a competitive district by the end of the decade?

The index is based on the 2008 presidential race, and the 2010 governor, auditor, and SOS race.  Because of including 3 races from 2010, it has about a 1:2 2010 (Republican) bias.  It's less than 1:3 because of the higher 2008 turnout.  In addiition, the 2010 SOS race was not close at all.  The AG race would have been a better race to use.

The claim was made that the governor, auditor, and SOS were chosen because they comprise the redistricting board for legislative redistricting.  But that doesn't mean their election is representative.

It would be interesting to map the SOS race vs. the governor race.  I googled a little bit and the Democratic candidate for SOS was portrayed as anti-2nd amendment, because she was particularly zealous when she was a Columbus city councilor in asserting a home rule right to restrict carrying of firearms, such that someone from Toledo could be arrested if they traveled to Columbus.  If this was the difference (and there was about a 10% differential from the governor's race), then it might show up more in places like Youngstown than elsewhere.  Perhaps OH-6, which while rural is not particularly Republican.

[Torie]

As I said (the numbers and the way the map was drawn, with such assiduous attention to detail as each GOP had its own assigned mission as to what Dem nodes to neutralize, which was done imo in a way that would make Goldilocks proud, speak for themselves), the GOP did a very skillful gerrymander. And thanks to the Dems, the Pubs in the end achieved their ends in a way that
does not look all that hideous, as opposed to merely noisome (unlike PA, where the Pubs had their back against the wall).  

Sometimes the Dem nodes neutralized were rather small things, such as OH-12 taking the cities of Richmond and Muskingum (so that the adjacent CD's could then have more ability to cope with Dems farther east), and noticing that Alliance was just sitting there, and that OH-13 should slip down to Stark County and suck it up, along with the former Dem incumbent who lost in 2010), but 30 or 40 basis point here, and then there, and then down yonder, begin to add up, and save seats in some election cycles.

Sure, a GOP unrestrained, would have moved the PVI's of OH-01 and OH-10 closer to OH-08 with a precinct exchange as it were, but Chabot as you can see in OH-01 really didn't need it, and toning down PA-10 to lean GOP levels was the bone the Pubs threw the Dems so that they could save face, and bring the saga to a risk-free close (given the incumbent Turner's political skill there).

As to OH-07, which is a potential problem child, unless the Pubs were willing to do a precinct by precinct cherry picking, ala PA in places, trashing township and municipal lines, and any notion of aesthetics, it just isn't possible to do better. The neighborhood is just too tough.  So Gibbs in OH-07 is potentially vulnerable, given who he is, and where he lives. Ditto for OH-16, but the GOP incumbent should be able to beat Sutton this cycle without much problem, assuming he has been reasonably competent.

Yes, the GOP PVI for OH-06 is overstated by a couple or three points (given the willingness there of those Butternut Dem voters to swing Dem on economic issues sometimes, even if these days for POTUS they usually go GOP), but that won't happen this year, and the GOP incumbent Johnson is competent. In any event, the CD moved up 3 GOP points, and shed Athens and the "bad" parts of Scioto,  places of potential Dem agitation in particular along the Ohio River in this neck of the woods. All of that should be demoralizing to the Dems.  

Man, they sure did a number on Lorain County didn't they?  

[TJ in Oregon]

OH-13 is around D+9 on this map, but concentrated in the Mahoning Valley, which has been swinging in the Republican direction considerably over the decade. This version may be too gerrymandered for it to happen, but I have to wonder, could this be a competitive district by the end of the decade?

The index is based on the 2008 presidential race, and the 2010 governor, auditor, and SOS race.  Because of including 3 races from 2010, it has about a 1:2 2010 (Republican) bias.  It's less than 1:3 because of the higher 2008 turnout.  In addiition, the 2010 SOS race was not close at all.  The AG race would have been a better race to use.

The claim was made that the governor, auditor, and SOS were chosen because they comprise the redistricting board for legislative redistricting.  But that doesn't mean their election is representative.

It would be interesting to map the SOS race vs. the governor race.  I googled a little bit and the Democratic candidate for SOS was portrayed as anti-2nd amendment, because she was particularly zealous when she was a Columbus city councilor in asserting a home rule right to restrict carrying of firearms, such that someone from Toledo could be arrested if they traveled to Columbus.  If this was the difference (and there was about a 10% differential from the governor's race), then it might show up more in places like Youngstown than elsewhere.  Perhaps OH-6, which while rural is not particularly Republican.

I was using only the 2008 presidential numbers for that D+9, so it only includes whatever bias that might have. (I have the new OH-13 at 62.3-35.7% Obama). I didn't consider 2010 numbers (and I'm not sure there's anything remarkable of note). The reason why I ask this is because every county in that district has trended toward the Republicans from 2000 to 2008. I'm considering trying to look at the trend for Congressional numbers over the decade, but I don't think that will help much because of Jim Traficant's numbers vs. Tim Ryan's, and Traficant's independent bid in 2010 against Ryan. It's hard to tell too much.

Also, Youngstown itself is probably not going to change a lot, rather the areas around it. Youngstown will contribute to the GOP trend only by shrinking (it's down to like 63,000 now). You might see some larger shifts in Warren and Niles (those cities have fewer minorities and more working class whites). All in all, this might have been prevented by the gerrymander; OH-13 goes through too many urban cores and takes in too few of the areas between to be competitive. Yet, I still think under the right circumstances in 10 years we may be seeing some sign of competitiveness.

[muon2]

OH-13 is around D+9 on this map, but concentrated in the Mahoning Valley, which has been swinging in the Republican direction considerably over the decade. This version may be too gerrymandered for it to happen, but I have to wonder, could this be a competitive district by the end of the decade?

The index is based on the 2008 presidential race, and the 2010 governor, auditor, and SOS race.  Because of including 3 races from 2010, it has about a 1:2 2010 (Republican) bias.  It's less than 1:3 because of the higher 2008 turnout.  In addiition, the 2010 SOS race was not close at all.  The AG race would have been a better race to use.

The claim was made that the governor, auditor, and SOS were chosen because they comprise the redistricting board for legislative redistricting.  But that doesn't mean their election is representative.

It would be interesting to map the SOS race vs. the governor race.  I googled a little bit and the Democratic candidate for SOS was portrayed as anti-2nd amendment, because she was particularly zealous when she was a Columbus city councilor in asserting a home rule right to restrict carrying of firearms, such that someone from Toledo could be arrested if they traveled to Columbus.  If this was the difference (and there was about a 10% differential from the governor's race), then it might show up more in places like Youngstown than elsewhere.  Perhaps OH-6, which while rural is not particularly Republican.

I was using only the 2008 presidential numbers for that D+9, so it only includes whatever bias that might have. (I have the new OH-13 at 62.3-35.7% Obama). I didn't consider 2010 numbers (and I'm not sure there's anything remarkable of note). The reason why I ask this is because every county in that district has trended toward the Republicans from 2000 to 2008. I'm considering trying to look at the trend for Congressional numbers over the decade, but I don't think that will help much because of Jim Traficant's numbers vs. Tim Ryan's, and Traficant's independent bid in 2010 against Ryan. It's hard to tell too much.

Also, Youngstown itself is probably not going to change a lot, rather the areas around it. Youngstown will contribute to the GOP trend only by shrinking (it's down to like 63,000 now). You might see some larger shifts in Warren and Niles (those cities have fewer minorities and more working class whites). All in all, this might have been prevented by the gerrymander; OH-13 goes through too many urban cores and takes in too few of the areas between to be competitive. Yet, I still think under the right circumstances in 10 years we may be seeing some sign of competitiveness.

Including the three races from 2010 puts OH-13 at 62.3% D to 37.7% R. It's not very different from the Obama numbers, so I would not conclude that the inclusion of the 2010 races biases the index much.

[TJ in Oregon]

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

This is a really good point actually. Canton is a potential problem area for the Republicans becase Former Representative John Boccieri will likely be the Democratic opponent for Gibbs. Boccieri is from Alliance, not Canton, but he's won Stark County by pretty good margins before. He lost to Renacci in 2010, but he's probably much more of a threat than most of the Democrats who lost. Boccieri is fairly moderate and could pose a threat to Gibbs. OH-7 and OH-16 have close to the same margins ~51% McCain, but I'd be more afraid of Boccieri winning thn Sutton if I were the Ohio GOP because Sutton has absolutely zero cross-party appeal whatsoever, maybe less than Kucinich (though she'll have less Democrats vote against her than Kucinich). Of course when Boccieri won it was an R+4 seat and now its an R+6 seat, but that's not a great match-up for the GOP. The Democrats could always nomine someone from Lorain or somewhere else in which case Gibbs's chances are much better.

[muon2]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

OH-04 had the original task of taking up parts of Toledo in the September map. Putting most of the black areas in Toledo back into Kaptur's district was a result of negotiations between the GOP and black legislators. Neither side got all they wanted, since Toledo is still split, just not as much. To compensate for the extra population that needed to go into 09, OH-04 had to take on a different Dem area. Elyria is not part of Kaptur's current district, nor is it part of Kucinich's, so it was sent to 04 in exchange for the aforementioned Toledo areas.

[Torie]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

OH-04 had the original task of taking up parts of Toledo in the September map. Putting most of the black areas in Toledo back into Kaptur's district was a result of negotiations between the GOP and black legislators. Neither side got all they wanted, since Toledo is still split, just not as much. To compensate for the extra population that needed to go into 09, OH-04 had to take on a different Dem area. Elyria is not part of Kaptur's current district, nor is it part of Kucinich's, so it was sent to 04 in exchange for the aforementioned Toledo areas.

Yes, that was my guess, without having really studied the original mess the GOP came up with. The Pubs just did an exchange with OH-09, where instead of OH-04 taking some of Toledo, it took Oberlin and Elryia instead, accomplishing the mission just as well, if not better, since that avoids a Toledo tri-chop.  As I said, the Pubs here were very clever, considerably more so than the PA clowns. I quite admire their handiwork. In I think each and every instance, I said to myself, hey that makes sense.

[BigSkyBob]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

OH-04 had the original task of taking up parts of Toledo in the September map. Putting most of the black areas in Toledo back into Kaptur's district was a result of negotiations between the GOP and black legislators. Neither side got all they wanted, since Toledo is still split, just not as much. To compensate for the extra population that needed to go into 09, OH-04 had to take on a different Dem area. Elyria is not part of Kaptur's current district, nor is it part of Kucinich's, so it was sent to 04 in exchange for the aforementioned Toledo areas.

Yes, that was my guess, without having really studied the original mess the GOP came up with. The Pubs just did an exchange with OH-09, where instead of OH-04 taking some of Toledo, it took Oberlin and Elryia instead, accomplishing the mission just as well, if not better, since that avoids a Toledo tri-chop.  As I said, the Pubs here were very clever, considerably more so than the PA clowns. I quite admire their handiwork. In I think each and every instance, I said to myself, hey that makes sense.

Why not just do it in the first place?

[Torie]

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

This is a really good point actually. Canton is a potential problem area for the Republicans becase Former Representative John Boccieri will likely be the Democratic opponent for Gibbs. Boccieri is from Alliance, not Canton, but he's won Stark County by pretty good margins before. He lost to Renacci in 2010, but he's probably much more of a threat than most of the Democrats who lost. Boccieri is fairly moderate and could pose a threat to Gibbs. OH-7 and OH-16 have close to the same margins ~51% McCain, but I'd be more afraid of Boccieri winning thn Sutton if I were the Ohio GOP because Sutton has absolutely zero cross-party appeal whatsoever, maybe less than Kucinich (though she'll have less Democrats vote against her than Kucinich). Of course when Boccieri won it was an R+4 seat and now its an R+6 seat, but that's not a great match-up for the GOP. The Democrats could always nomine someone from Lorain or somewhere else in which case Gibbs's chances are much better.

The Canton based seat (and that is what OH-07 basically is now, switching places with OH-16), went up 1.1% in GOP PVI.  When the seat was open in 2008, Boccieri won by 10 points (55-45), in a high spending, high profile race, running 5 points ahead of Obama. In 2010 he lost by 11 points, with a Libertarian pulling 7%. It is quite a volatile seat!  Alliance was drawn into OH-13 however (his presence there might well have been one of the reasons), so Boccieri will need to move (and he may well, since I think he carpet bagged into Alliance in the first instance to run for the seat in 2008).

Yes, it is a potential problem child. I smell trouble down the road, even if not in 2012, when the Dems are not going to get anywhere like the numbers they got in 2008.  However, if Gibbs loses, a new Canton based Pubbie would be highly competitive vis a vis taking it back. That is something that is often overlooked. Weak sisters losing isn't always a bad thing, and it is hardly as if it represents some "permanent" shift.

[dpmapper]

What I don't understand is, given that the mappers are willing to split Rocky River and Parma, why not split Broadview Heights and Independence so that Fudge's district takes in fewer white (and GOP) voters en route to Akron?  Put Seven Hills and most of Broadview Heights into OH-16.  Also, dig Richfield Village (as opposed to Richfield Township) out of Fudge and into OH-14.  Might not be enough to allow Canton to be placed in the Youngstown district, but at least you can put some more light blue Akron outskirts into it. 

Oh well. 

[muon2]

Yes, that was my guess, without having really studied the original mess the GOP came up with. The Pubs just did an exchange with OH-09, where instead of OH-04 taking some of Toledo, it took Oberlin and Elryia instead, accomplishing the mission just as well, if not better, since that avoids a Toledo tri-chop.  As I said, the Pubs here were very clever, considerably more so than the PA clowns. I quite admire their handiwork. In I think each and every instance, I said to myself, hey that makes sense.

This is an advantage to having the Speaker in your delegation. I saw the same power at work 10 years ago in IL as the bipartisan gerrymander was fashioned.

[muon2]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

OH-04 had the original task of taking up parts of Toledo in the September map. Putting most of the black areas in Toledo back into Kaptur's district was a result of negotiations between the GOP and black legislators. Neither side got all they wanted, since Toledo is still split, just not as much. To compensate for the extra population that needed to go into 09, OH-04 had to take on a different Dem area. Elyria is not part of Kaptur's current district, nor is it part of Kucinich's, so it was sent to 04 in exchange for the aforementioned Toledo areas.

Yes, that was my guess, without having really studied the original mess the GOP came up with. The Pubs just did an exchange with OH-09, where instead of OH-04 taking some of Toledo, it took Oberlin and Elryia instead, accomplishing the mission just as well, if not better, since that avoids a Toledo tri-chop.  As I said, the Pubs here were very clever, considerably more so than the PA clowns. I quite admire their handiwork. In I think each and every instance, I said to myself, hey that makes sense.

Why not just do it in the first place?

One factor the OH GOP did not consider was the threat of a referendum. That emerged after the legislation for the map was presented. The OH Senate thought they had a way to bypass the threat by attaching an appropriation to the map bill, but that was struck down by the 6-1 GOP OH Supremes. The only other way to stop a referendum was to get enough Dem votes for the map to have it pass by a supermajority. That led to discussions between the GOP and members of the OH Black Caucus.

[Torie]

What I don't understand is, given that the mappers are willing to split Rocky River and Parma, why not split Broadview Heights and Independence so that Fudge's district takes in fewer white (and GOP) voters en route to Akron?  Put Seven Hills and most of Broadview Heights into OH-16.  Also, dig Richfield Village (as opposed to Richfield Township) out of Fudge and into OH-14.  Might not be enough to allow Canton to be placed in the Youngstown district, but at least you can put some more light blue Akron outskirts into it. 

Oh well. 

That buys you 40 Pub basis points. Is it worth it?  The thing is, is that OH-16 shedding most of its share of Parma only gets you so far. It just isn't that Dem.

[dpmapper]

What if you don't remove Parma, but instead take more blueish towns near Akron?  (Or you could remove Parma Heights instead.  I recall that that's bluer than southern Parma.) 

[Torie]

What if you don't remove Parma, but instead take more blueish towns near Akron?  (Or you could remove Parma Heights instead.  I recall that that's bluer than southern Parma.)  

Nah, Parma Heights is a tad more Pub. Sure you could go to Akron, but the pickings around there outside the zone that is already "Dem sunk" of highly Dem precincts are even thinner on the ground. Close to non existent actually. No, the big move would be for OH-13 to go to Canton, and this small change isn't going to get it there. You need to do a map like the one I first drew to do that ... nice thin long tails to the magic kingdoms of real Dem nodes. .

Here is the city of Parma Heights action for you. As you can see, this beer is so watered down, it hardly even gives you a buzz as it were.



The real change for those 40 Pub basis points, is that it would hurt Kuch, and bad, in his primary against Kaptur. That may have been a little thought in the back of the Pub drawers' minds, but I think they really didn't want to have to defend any more splits than they absolutely needed to do. Pick your shots baby.

Oh, one other  thought. The GOP ceding of Columbus, meant that there were plenty of available Pubs to do a deep Toledo chop, a most effective way of sending the excess Pubs east. Thus the GOP could be rather serene about the Cleveland and NE part of Ohio in general. All the Dem nodes that needed to be neutralized (other than Canton) could, without micro splits. And OH-07, rather than having its hyper Pub areas employed for an attack on Columbus, instead could be used to reasonably contain Canton.  So ceding Columbus made it much easier to draw the map. The Pubs just went nutter over OH-10 for some reason, without really needing to. And the tri-chop of Toledo was just dumb - totally unnecessary. The "genius" who came up with that should be fired.

[muon2]

What if you don't remove Parma, but instead take more blueish towns near Akron?  (Or you could remove Parma Heights instead.  I recall that that's bluer than southern Parma.)  

Nah, Parma Heights is a tad more Pub. Sure you could go to Akron, but the pickings around there outside the zone that is already "Dem sunk" of highly Dem precincts are even thinner on the ground. Close to non existent actually. No, the big move would be for OH-13 to go to Canton, and this small change isn't going to get it there. You need to do a map like the one I first drew to do that ... nice thin long tails to the magic kingdoms of real Dem nodes. .

Here is the city of Parma Heights action for you. As you can see, this beer is so watered down, it hardly even gives you a buzz as it were.



The real change for those 40 Pub basis points, is that it would hurt Kuch, and bad, in his primary against Kaptur. That may have been a little thought in the back of the Pub drawers' minds, but I think they really didn't want to have to defend any more splits than they absolutely needed to do. Pick your shots baby.

Oh, one other  thought. The GOP ceding of Columbus, meant that there were plenty of available Pubs to do a deep Toledo chop, a most effective way of sending the excess Pubs east. Thus the GOP could be rather serene about the Cleveland and NE part of Ohio in general. All the Dem nodes that needed to be neutralized (other than Canton) could, without micro splits. And OH-07, rather than having its hyper Pub areas employed for an attack on Columbus, instead could be used to reasonably contain Canton.  So ceding Columbus made it much easier to draw the map. The Pubs just went nutter over OH-10 for some reason, without really needing to. And the tri-chop of Toledo was just dumb - totally unnecessary. The "genius" who came up with that should be fired.

The folks who ran the OH competition did some FOIA requests. The report provides some interesting background on the mapping decisions.

[TJ in Oregon]

Well, I managed to get the part about Faber right.

[Torie]

Having said everything that I said, I would have drawn OH-10 the way depicted below, with OH-08 cutting into a portion of the territory that it had before in Montgomery County (this particular bit white and actually McCain leaning so it is not a chop up the black community issue at all), in a way that enables OH-10 to comprise, and only comprise, three whole counties (taking all of a bit more GOP Clinton than somewhat less Fayette, particularly given that OH-10 took the county seat).  It makes the map look better, and adds 40 Pub basis points to OH-10 (getting up to 4.0% GOP PVI, and into that orange zone in lieu of yellow), with OH-08 dropping 20. But the fly in the ointment, is that OH-15 drops 30 Pub basis points, and at the end of the day, Stivers is arguably at greater risk than Turner will ever be, as long as Turner runs for re-election. Turner's pride may have been involved too. Hey, if we are going this route, give me the whole darn Montgomery County - at last. Folks there like me, and I like them. 40 basis points just isn't going to cut it (yes I might drop dead or something else unexpected happen), to change my mind.

[TJ in Oregon]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.