State by state polls

[°Leprechaun]

If Kerry can win Florida (or Arizona) he could win the election:



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

[CTguy]

Wow those numbers look terrible for Bush.  I cant believe the turn around in New Hampshire of 18 points.  I have a feeling that the only reason Bush won New Hampshire last time was because of the drawn out Republican primary in the state last time coupled with the fact that Nader was in the race.

[WalterMitty]

i dont think the numbers are that bad.  most of the polling on that site was taken last month.

[CTguy]

Are you kidding?  He is losing in the battleground states that should be leaning Republican and he had a complete turnaround in some states he won last time (like New Hampshire).

Also, the undecideds usually break for the challenger, especially a democrat, since undecided voters tend to be women and people with less money.  

I don't know where all of those polls are coming from so the numbers are suspect, but if the numbers are accurate then Bush is in a lot of trouble.  

[Gustaf]

Apparently, the NH poll was a methodological mess and not trustworthy.

[CTguy]

I could believe the New Hampshire poll though.  Even though the state doesn't have as many democrats as most other Northeastern States, the democrats there are highly partisan whereas the republicans don't seem as thrilled about Bush.  All of my friends from New Hampshire loathe Bush as if they were from any other liberal New England state...  so I think Bush is going to have a real tough time there unless he gets every single Republican in the state out to vote.  

Also I think the gun issue really helped him in 2000 in New Hampshire as the state has a libertarian bent...  but this year the issue doesn't seem as important and he seems to be pissing off libertarians with some of his policies like that patriot act that seem to be about taking away individual liberties.  

But still...  I would have thought Kerry would be up 5 or 10 points there...  not such a wide spread.  That result was rather shocking.  New Hampshire has two very conservative US Senators...  perhaps these new poll numbers will cause them to think about their voting records...  It seems to me like they're going to have to start voting like the moderate Republican senators in Maine rather than like the conservatives in the South if they want to keep getting elected.

[WalterMitty]

if kerry cant perform any better than he has over the last couple of weeks, he is going to get his hat handed to him in november.

he has strayed way off message.  he could be talking about the millions of jobs lost, instead he is talking about foreign leaders who support him and claiming colin powell has been marginalized.  

i think his message for today is "i didnt say 'foreign leaders', just 'leaders'"

i also think i heard him attempt to split hairs over funding the troops.  now he claims he didnt vote against the package, but rather, he voted for an alternate amendment of some sort.

im sure that legislative double-speak will go over well with the public.   earth to kerry...

[The Vorlon]

I could believe the New Hampshire poll though.  Even though the state doesn't have as many democrats as most other Northeastern States, the democrats there are highly partisan whereas the republicans don't seem as thrilled about Bush.  All of my friends from New Hampshire loathe Bush as if they were from any other liberal New England state...  so I think Bush is going to have a real tough time there unless he gets every single Republican in the state out to vote.  

Also I think the gun issue really helped him in 2000 in New Hampshire as the state has a libertarian bent...  but this year the issue doesn't seem as important and he seems to be pissing off libertarians with some of his policies like that patriot act that seem to be about taking away individual liberties.  

But still...  I would have thought Kerry would be up 5 or 10 points there...  not such a wide spread.  That result was rather shocking.  New Hampshire has two very conservative US Senators...  perhaps these new poll numbers will cause them to think about their voting records...  It seems to me like they're going to have to start voting like the moderate Republican senators in Maine rather than like the conservatives in the South if they want to keep getting elected.

I looked over the New Hampshire poll in some detail... it is methodologic disaster - My Cat could design a better poll...

I have New Hampshire, as per my map, in the kerry Column, but 15 points is just on drugs... it's Kerry +6 or 7, but +15... somebody is smoking crack....

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

if kerry cant perform any better than he has over the last couple of weeks, he is going to get his hat handed to him in november.

he has strayed way off message.  he could be talking about the millions of jobs lost, instead he is talking about foreign leaders who support him and claiming colin powell has been marginalized.  

i think his message for today is "i didnt say 'foreign leaders', just 'leaders'"

i also think i heard him attempt to split hairs over funding the troops.  now he claims he didnt vote against the package, but rather, he voted for an alternate amendment of some sort.

im sure that legislative double-speak will go over well with the public.   earth to kerry...

I agree, Kerry has sounded like an absolute idiot as of late.  He doesn't need to go making these outrageous claims to get votes.  Unfortunately, Bush has sounded like a moron to me for 4 years.  Either way, a moron is going to be president.  I'll support Kerry because I'm in favor of a more liberal nation in general, but its looking more and more like lose-lose to me.  Unless Edwards is selected as VP.