So...now Bush is back...what do you want to happen to Blair?

[afleitch]

Okay...this is mainly for American's but anyone can join in. There are 5 possible outcomes to Tony Blair now that Bush has been returned to office. What would you like to see and why?

1. Blair remains P.M. He wins the 2005 General Election and remains P.M until 2009/10, welcoming Bush's succesor to Downing Street and beating Thatcher's record as the longest serving P.M of the modern era (1997-2010)

2. The Commons motion to have Blair impeached gathers speed. When put to a vote Blair is impeached due to Iraqi War 'lies', putting the position of President Bush in danger.

3. In the spring of 2005, Tony Blair and the Labour Party is defeated in the General Election by Michael Howard's centrist Conservative Party. After being sidelined by former Republican allies, Howard is not as welcoming to Bush as Blair was.

4. Blair, after his heart scare and with little Leo growing up fast decides to pack it in. Ala Clinton he travels the world, writing memoirs and giving after dinner speeches. That or goes back to being a barrister.

5. The Labour Party has had enough of him after low opinion polls and the 'poodleing' to Bush. In a coup d'etat the party votes to have him removed as leader and P.M. He is suceeded by Chancellor Gordon Brown.

Your choice These 5 choices are all fairly probable.

[Silent Hunter]

As a Labour supporter, I'd prefer 1, 4 or 5. 1 is best.

The Conservatives are not centrist. Centre-Right, perhaps, but not centrist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The whole "impeachment" thing is a farce conducted by an idoitic Plaid Cymru M.P scared of going down next election.

It has about as much chance of getting through as Kerry did of winning Utah

[opebo]

He deserves to be impeached or replaced by Gordon Brown.  The British need to distance themselves from the coming crash of the US.

[The Dowager Mod]

#5

[Keystone Phil]

I really admire Blair for his courage and loyalty to President Bush. What do I want to see happen to him? Well..that depends...

If the Conservatives want a withdraw of British troops from Iraq, I want Blair.

If the Conservatives stand with the U.S. in Iraq, I would like to see them beat Blair.

I have don't really have anything against Blair...it's the Labour party that I can't stand.

[Keystone Phil]

I really admire Blair for his courage and loyalty to President Bush. What do I want to see happen to him? Well..that depends...

If the Conservatives want a withdraw of British troops from Iraq, I want Blair.

If the Conservatives stand with the U.S. in Iraq, I would like to see them beat Blair.

I have don't really have anything against Blair...it's the Labour party that I can't stand.

Well I guess I have my answer already...

3. In the spring of 2005, Tony Blair and the Labour Party is defeated in the General Election by Michael Howard's centrist Conservative Party. After being sidelined by former Republican allies, Howard is not as welcoming to Bush as Blair was.

If that is the reality of this situation, my support is behind Blair.

[Peter]

Surely Brown has already deployed a stalking horse to the backbenches for a post-election challenge?

Blair will be challenged by a Brownite: Blair loses as the Labour party finally realise that the polls say that Brown is more trusted and is considered more competent than Blair. Brownite then stands aside in favour of Brown - likely Blairite contender, Milburn?

Upon assuming office, Brown realises that all politics is local and does what is needed to appeal to the Social Democrat base: He broadsides Bush on Kyoto, which will be an incredibly popular move in the UK. He would stay in Iraq and continue to fight the War on Terror though.

[English]

Replaced by Gordon Brown.
I quite like Blair, however his constant poodling to Bush drives me insane. It's pathetic.

[Angel of Death]

The best possible outcome is for no party to get a majority in the House, after which Blair gets dumped to allow for a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

I'd like to see him removed by an intra-party coup. Maximum embarassment.

[Angel of Death]

If you think about it, Bush's reelection is in fact bad news for Blair, because unlike Bush, he doesn't have much political capital to spend and he has effectively tied his fate to Bush's policies.

[Peter]

The retention of Bush in office damages Blair:

A lot of the British electorate don't like Bush, and they dislike Blair poodling to him even more. Bush remaining in office will simply be a constant reminder to them that they seriously dislike their relationship.

If Blair's looking for a quick boost in the polls, he will either get pay back on all he's given for Bush or he will broadside Bush. Either is acceptable to me.

[John Dibble]

Don't care, really. The British people can decide for themselves what they want. It's none of my business.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quiet retirement. 7 years is long enough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For all three of you who take an interest in internal Labour Party politics:

Blair (like all post-War Labour leaders with the exception of John Smith) doesn't have anything more than lukewarm support from any large Faction or Union, but all the different Factions hate each other more than they hate him. If enough decide it's time for Tony to take early retirement, he goes.
Blair happens to be very good at playing off the different factions against each other... not as good as Atlee or Wilson of course, but much better than poor old Michael Foot.
I think he's come close to going on several occasions recently, but he's always pulled through.

It's a crazy way to run a large organisation, but we've been doing it (with numerous modifactions) since WW1 and ain't stoppin' now.