New Jersey: Can the GOP win it in 2012?

[joece]

With Governor Chris Christie's approval rating at 50/36, compared to President Obama's 50/47, internals from congressional races showing thought to be safe Democrats in trouble, and an electorate that only leaned Democrat four points in 2008, do you think New Jersey can be won by Republicans in 2012?

I'll go as far saying that the GOP will win New Jersey in 2012 if it wins the election, but others may disagree with that assertion. A candidate like Mitt Romney can definitely be very competitive in the Garden State.

[pbrower2a]

If President Obama is ahead 50/47 going into the 2012 election in New Jersey, then  nothing that the Republican Governor can do can flip the state.

Be careful about assuming the permanence of any linear trend. Americans may loathe GOP incumbents as much in 2012 as they did in 2006 if they end up with More of the Same.

[Zarn]

I cannot see Obama's approvals being that high in 2012.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

If it's a bigtime wave election it's possible. If it's just a close GOP victory Obama's still going to win NJ.

But NJ isn't even close to the first state that would flip from Obama(not counting the Indiana's and North Carolina's of the world). Of the Kerry states, I could potentially see Michigan, Wisconsin and some others flip before NJ would.

[pbrower2a]

I cannot see Obama's approvals being that high in 2012.

If they are like that in New Jersey in November 2012, he is going down to defeat anyway even if he wins New Jersey by roughly a 52-47 margin. He has to win New Jersey by about a 55-45 margin to have a chance of being re-elected.

I can also see the Republican nominee as a Tea Party devotee whose cause overstays its welcome. Remember -- if the Republicans have majorities in both Houses of Congress and prove that they have nothing more than ideas from the John Birch Society, then Americans will re-learn why they voted out Republican majorities in the House and Senate in 2006.

[Eraserhead]

No.

[Yelnoc]

They would have to win a landslide like in the map below.  So no, probably not.

[Bo]

They would have to win a landslide like in the map below.  So no, probably not.

This, pretty much. And a Governor's approvals are pretty irrelevant to whether a particular candidate will win the state. Jim Douglas was popular in VT in 2008, but Obama beat McCain 2-1 there.

[tpfkaw]

Why does everyone think that Michigan is more likely to go GOP than Minnesota?

[bgwah]

If New Jersey is competitive then the Democrats have already lost in a landslide, so who cares?

[Penelope]

No.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Why does everyone think that Michigan is more likely to go GOP than Minnesota?

White union types are always a tenuous hold for the Dems. Plus, the economy is terrible. Although, Obama's bailout of GM and Chrysler will probably help him there.

[pbrower2a]

Why does everyone think that Michigan is more likely to go GOP than Minnesota?

Not I.

Politically, the difference between Michigan and either Minnesota or Wisconsin is that Detroit is bigger and blacker than the Twin Cities or Milwaukee. 

[joece]

Let's keep in mind here that Obama won 57 percent of the vote in New Jersey, roughly equal to what he finished off with in New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan. The Bush campaign poured little to no resources into this state in 2004 and received nearly 47 percent of the vote.

That sounds like a swing state to me.

The state's Democratic vote percentage was artificially boosted in 2000 thanks to Lieberman's presence on the ticket, as well as Gore's overwhelming numbers in the NYC suburbs. Al Gore even won Staten Island in 2000.

[DS0816]

The Repubicans can dream of winning New Jersey.

[California8429]

It is a possibility, depends on the ticket, but it isn't crazy.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Well comparing the recent voting history of NJ to the amount of swing needed between 2004 and 2008 to flip Indiana and North Carolina, it certainly isn't unreasonable to assume a winning GOP candidate in 2012 could carry NJ.

A Republican hasn't won the presidency nationally with an Obama-style margin since 1988, so it's a bit tough to say for sure which states would be the first to fall. Having a highly-unpopular Democratic incumbent could give us a chance to find out in 2012.

Let's keep in mind here that Obama won 57 percent of the vote in New Jersey, roughly equal to what he finished off with in New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan. The Bush campaign poured little to no resources into this state in 2004 and received nearly 47 percent of the vote.

That sounds like a swing state to me.

The state's Democratic vote percentage was artificially boosted in 2000 thanks to Lieberman's presence on the ticket, as well as Gore's overwhelming numbers in the NYC suburbs. Al Gore even won Staten Island in 2000.

Clinton won Staten Island in 1996, and probably deserves the credit for establishing bases of Democratic support there and other suburban areas in the Northeast.

Obama lost Staten Island in 2008 and I believe he also narrowly lost the white vote in New Jersey. Since the black population is evidently committed to Obama in perpetuitate, it will probably come down to how low Obama's support among whites can go.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If New Jersey is competitive then the Democrats have already lost in a landslide, so who cares?

This... if NJ is in danger, then PA, MI, OH, IA have probably already flipped.

[Mr.Phips]

Well comparing the recent voting history of NJ to the amount of swing needed between 2004 and 2008 to flip Indiana and North Carolina, it certainly isn't unreasonable to assume a winning GOP candidate in 2012 could carry NJ.

A Republican hasn't won the presidency nationally with an Obama-style margin since 1988, so it's a bit tough to say for sure which states would be the first to fall. Having a highly-unpopular Democratic incumbent could give us a chance to find out in 2012.

Let's keep in mind here that Obama won 57 percent of the vote in New Jersey, roughly equal to what he finished off with in New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan. The Bush campaign poured little to no resources into this state in 2004 and received nearly 47 percent of the vote.

That sounds like a swing state to me.

The state's Democratic vote percentage was artificially boosted in 2000 thanks to Lieberman's presence on the ticket, as well as Gore's overwhelming numbers in the NYC suburbs. Al Gore even won Staten Island in 2000.

Clinton won Staten Island in 1996, and probably deserves the credit for establishing bases of Democratic support there and other suburban areas in the Northeast.

If you notice, since the beginning of the Obama Presidency, many of these suburban areas have been shifting back to Republicans.  Without these suburban areas, Pennsylvania would likely be gone for Obama, New Jersey very close, and New York only a 5-7 point win. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe ... if Chris Christie is the GOP nominee. That's really the only candidate who would have enough of an impact on the NJ vote to make it competitive in a competitive national environment.

Otherwise, yes, the GOP can win New Jersey if they're already winning in a landslide, as has already been said.

[Inmate Trump]

Only if Obama keeps going farther downhill, which is certainly a possibility given that that's all he's done since coming into office (ie, accomplishing very little with polls #s that reflect this).  Still, I highly doubt he'll lose NJ in '12, though he won't win it as easily as he did in '08.

[Dgov]

It depends alot on Christie actually.  So far the man has been running the state pretty well, and pretty conservatively too.  If in 2012 Christie has helped turn the state around, they I'd bet it flips GOP sooner than a straight 2008-vote-percentage would indicate.

The biggest reason why Christie might have a bigger impact than other governors, is because he's governing like a Conservative rather than just a Republican in a Blue state.  Douglas in VT or Lingle in HI didn't really strive to change the political direction of their states in that they both governed like Moderate/Liberal Republicans.

To summarize in a line--yes, because Christie's New Jersey is probably going to be the model for how a 2012 Republican is going to try running the country.

[feeblepizza]

What are his current approvals there? I know Christie's are in the 30s.

[Dgov]

What are his current approvals there? I know Christie's are in the 30s.

Um, no, Christie is currently in the mid-50s.  If he was in the 30s, he'd be a lame-duck already

[Zarn]

What are his current approvals there? I know Christie's are in the 30s.

No, that was Corzine.