WV: Rasmussen Poll Manchin 50%, Raese 45%

[Torie]

The poll results are here.

Ras is moving this race into the toss up category.

Someone needs to enter the poll into the data base. I am afraid I will screw it up.

[Lief 🗽]

So, unchanged since a week ago.

[Torie]

So, unchanged since a week ago.

I guess that is right. Two weeks ago, Ras had Manchin up by 6% he says.

[SvenssonRS]

Okay, Democrats, I know you don't take Rasmussen very seriously, but you might want to take this poll into consideration. Even averaging the poll results, Manchin still, probably, isn't up by as much as we think he is.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Wow, I thought that Manchin was far safer than this.

I take it that the GOP's strategy here is working.

[Meeker]

So, unchanged since a week ago.

[DrScholl]

Manchin is at 50%, so that's a good thing. In the end, he'll likely win by 56-44 or 55-45.

[Niemeyerite]

Manchin is at 50%, so that's a good thing. In the end, he'll likely win by 56-44 or 55-45.

I agree.

[Ronnie]

The results in WV are probably going to be close to this poll.  I don't see the GOP winning here, unfortunately.

[Torie]

I am not sure that I agree that Manchin will probably win. It depends a lot on the campaign, and how Manchin chooses to position himself. He has a high wire act to perform. In any event, a 5% lead at this point is pretty thin.

[Lunar]

I am not sure that I agree that Manchin will probably win. It depends a lot on the campaign, and how Manchin chooses to position himself.

Two hypothetical questions then:

1) Do you think Manchin is a talented enough of a politician to figure out how to choose to position himself?

2) Do you think Manchin will do that, if necessary, to win?


Based on your quoted bit above, unless you think one in Machin's position can tell himself that the West Virginia climate in November, 2010 will be something other than it appears today, well, I think it speaks volumes.

[Torie]

My point, is that it will not be easy for Manchin to position himself, and will take careful handling. Is he going to say that he will oppose the Obama agenda? If he does, will that erode part of his base? He of course will be pushed on these issues. I do assume of course, that Manchin is a smart politician, and a skillful one, but sometimes, one still has a tricky road to navigate, despite all of that. And with just a 5% difference (assuming the poll is accurate), unless one has some sense that the politician is subject to being beat up, and thus based on one's best judgment, as the campaign progresses, will go downhill (think Crist), to suggest that one has any confidence about the outcome of the race, seems a reach to me. JMO.

[Lunar]

If he does, will that erode part of his base?

Who do you think is his base?

[Torie]

If he does, will that erode part of his base?

Who do you think is his base?

Well part of it is presumably those who are in sync with Obama, and maybe they won't vote. And if Manchin really locks himself into the GOP agenda (but he can do more for WV), he probably realizes that will create problems down the line for his political career, and is it really worth it?  So it has to be a very skillful Obama light, picking the right spots. I am just musing here. And I don't really have a good understanding of WV anyway. But I do know this is a Dem lean (and not too far from tossup), but potentially with some likelihood very vulnerable, seat for the Dems to hold. It requires a lot more skill to hold really for the Dems that the Conn seat, and that one is also only lean Dem for the moment, but perhaps a bit more comfortably so.

[cinyc]

Well part of it is presumably those who are in sync with Obama, and maybe they won't vote.

There are West Virginians who are in sync with Obama?  Well, maybe in Morgantown, federal government workers in the eastern panhandle and state government workers in Charleston.  Elsewhere, not so much.

Obama is a major liability in the Appalachian belt from West Virginia to Arkansas.

[Lunar]

If he does, will that erode part of his base?

Who do you think is his base?

Well part of it is presumably those who are in sync with Obama, and maybe they won't vote. And if Manchin really locks himself into the GOP agenda (but he can do more for WV), he probably realizes that will create problems down the line for his political career, and is it really worth it?  So it has to be a very skillful Obama light, picking the right spots. I am just musing here. And I don't really have a good understanding of WV anyway. But I do know this is a Dem lean (and not too far from tossup), but potentially with some likelihood very vulnerable, seat for the Dems to hold. It requires a lot more skill to hold really for the Dems that the Conn seat, and that one is also only lean Dem for the moment, but perhaps a bit more comfortably so.

Locking himself into "how he would have voted" on the stuff everyone knows about doesn't seem too risky.  "I would have voted against the healthcare bill because it didn't do enough to control costs and added too much to the deficit *wink*" -- unions know he's not an ideologue and his opponent can't paint him as a super liberal.  It doesn't seem to be this delicate balancing act you're making it out to be.

The only thing that would box him in in the future would be speculating on future bills.  I don't think he's going to have a hard time saying he's against amnesty and cap-n-trade, so what else is there?

[Torie]

Taxes and spending come to mind. I wonder if Manchin said anything about these issues (or others) before Byrd died, and before the bottom fell out for the Dems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is tax cuts for people making over $200k a huge issue in WV?

[Torie]

Is tax cuts for people making over $200k a huge issue in WV?

It has become a symbolic issue, and the GOP claim that you would kill the job creators (small business subchapter S types who have a successful business is the GOP leitmotif here) with a 4.6% increase in the marginal rate, seems to be selling. It has the Dems in marginal seats bailing from the idea of having a vote on this issue. They don't want such a vote prior to the election, so there will be no such vote. In fact the session coming up will last about 10 days, and nothing will happen, and everyone will then go home to campaign. The legislative season is over.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Is tax cuts for people making over $200k a huge issue in WV?

It has become a symbolic issue, and the GOP claim that you would kill the job creators (small business subchapter S types who have a successful business is the GOP leitmotif here) with a 4.6% increase in the marginal rate, seems to be selling. It has the Dems in marginal seats bailing from the idea of having a vote on this issue. They don't want such a vote prior to the election, so there will be no such vote. In fact the session coming up will last about 10 days, and nothing will happen, and everyone will then go home to campaign. The legislative season is over.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142940/Americans-Allowing-Tax-Cuts-Wealthy-Expire.aspx

[Torie]

Is tax cuts for people making over $200k a huge issue in WV?

It has become a symbolic issue, and the GOP claim that you would kill the job creators (small business subchapter S types who have a successful business is the GOP leitmotif here) with a 4.6% increase in the marginal rate, seems to be selling. It has the Dems in marginal seats bailing from the idea of having a vote on this issue. They don't want such a vote prior to the election, so there will be no such vote. In fact the session coming up will last about 10 days, and nothing will happen, and everyone will then go home to campaign. The legislative season is over.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142940/Americans-Allowing-Tax-Cuts-Wealthy-Expire.aspx

It doesn't matter. The Dems don't want this debate. The micro story in tough times about how it will slow down hiring is just something the Dems don't want to be a major topic in this election. It is all about the marginal seats.

[Lunar]

Manchin can say whatever he wants Torie, you make excessive assumptions about his unwillingness to differentiate himself from the national party.... I mean a number of Dems campaigned heavily against TARP but voted to fund the second half, srsly your mind is too active on this race, much like mine is in LA and AK and IN, but instead of chilling and waiting you're so imaginative !

[J. J.]

Manchin is at 50%, so that's a good thing. In the end, he'll likely win by 56-44 or 55-45.

It might mean that the Democrats will have to divert resources.  I think it is a hold for the Democrats, unless they abandon the race.

[Torie]

Manchin can say whatever he wants Torie, you make excessive assumptions about his unwillingness to differentiate himself from the national party.... I mean a number of Dems campaigned heavily against TARP but voted to fund the second half, srsly your mind is too active on this race, much like mine is in LA and AK and IN, but instead of chilling and waiting you're so imaginative !

Well, Manchin is still the favorite, and I take pleasure in your pleasure in a 5% lead for your team from which you have confidence will hold, in a race that most assumed (but not me) was in the bag not so long ago, and now it is yet another irritant, in an otherwise very bleak landscape for your team. And I really won't mind if Manchin wins. So there.

Heck, if Bennet wins I won't mind much either. I quite like him, particularly since he may be a distant 4th or 5th cousin once removed or so (I mean to find out). But I still favor the nutter in Nevada (who has made remarkable progress in her therapy I might add).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Is tax cuts for people making over $200k a huge issue in WV?

It has become a symbolic issue, and the GOP claim that you would kill the job creators (small business subchapter S types who have a successful business is the GOP leitmotif here) with a 4.6% increase in the marginal rate, seems to be selling. It has the Dems in marginal seats bailing from the idea of having a vote on this issue. They don't want such a vote prior to the election, so there will be no such vote. In fact the session coming up will last about 10 days, and nothing will happen, and everyone will then go home to campaign. The legislative season is over.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142940/Americans-Allowing-Tax-Cuts-Wealthy-Expire.aspx

It doesn't matter. The Dems don't want this debate. The micro story in tough times about how it will slow down hiring is just something the Dems don't want to be a major topic in this election. It is all about the marginal seats.

Come on Torie, think for a second. The poll results show that this issue is almost purely class based. Do you that West Virginians of all people would buy into fairly advanced arguments involving Macroeconomics over their hatred for "rich elites"? If that argument works in WV it could work anywhere.