SUSA/KY-03: Yarmuth in trouble?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://images.bimedia.net/documents/SurveyUSApoll17015.pdf

John Yarmuth (D) - 47
Todd Lally (R) - 45
Ed Martin (L) - 1
Michael Hansen (I) - 1

Don't know what to make of it; it's pretty much the same numbers as the Louisville mayor poll.

[East Coast Republican]

Oh my God.

I'm stopping myself from thinking this district is competitive.  More pollsters need to get into this district.

EDIT: Got some weird age breakdowns.  If that's ignored the R/D/I numbers look ok but the age breakdowns are very strange.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He ought to be alright, but it's definitely the sort of place that isn't safe in a strong swing.

[Dgov]

Oh my God.

I'm stopping myself from thinking this district is competitive.  More pollsters need to get into this district.

EDIT: Got some weird age breakdowns.  If that's ignored the R/D/I numbers look ok but the age breakdowns are very strange.

yeah, Yarmuth is leading in in ever age group but the under-30s, which he loses by more than 20 points.

Although this isn't unprecedented.  Bush's worst demographic in Texas in 2004 was the silent generation after all, and old Southerners are the kind of Blue Dog Democrats that usually give Democrat's their edge

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would suggest that it's a mistake to read too much into poll internals.

[Torie]

If this falls, it will be a massive blowout. I think it highly unlikely.

Only 15% of the voters are black in this poll?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

SUSA's polls scare me.

[Dgov]

If this falls, it will be a massive blowout. I think it highly unlikely.

Only 15% of the voters are black in this poll?

Well, according to Wikipedia the district itself is 19% Black, so that actually looks about right.

[Lief 🗽]

SUSA's polls scare me.

Yeah, if SUSA's polls are right we're going to lose like 90 seats.

[Eraserhead]

Is this really that shocking all things considered? Yarmuth barely won in '06.

[rob in cal]

And the previous GOP occupant, Anne Northrup held the seat for 12 years, even though the Democrats targeted her often over those years.

[Torie]

Obama carried KY-3 56%-43%.  How many seats would be the Dems lose, if they lost every seat that Obama got  56% or less of the vote in?

Let's see. 56% translates into a PVI of about Dem +3%. There are 272 seats with PVI of Dem +3 or less (yes, I know, the Charlie Cook PVI percentages include averaging in the 2004 election numbers, but that should not make much difference). So that leaves 163 seats (534-272=163) with Dem PVI of +4 or more. The Dems hold 256 seats now or thereabouts. So that is a 93 seat loss (256-163), assuming the GOP wins no seats with a Dem PVI of +4 or more.

Cook has KY-3 at Dem PVI +2%. 260 seats are PVI Dem +2% or less, translating into a 81 seat GOP gain. WA-2 is Dem PVI +3%. The Republican is ahead by 4% in the latest SUSA poll - ahead of a well entrenched incumbent. It seems the macro is percolating down to the micro on a very wide scale - nearly everywhere.

[Beet]

To wit, the last time the Republicans held more than 272 seats was during the 67th Congress, elected in 1920. The last time the Democrats held that number was the 96th Congress, elected in 1978. The last time either party has gained that many seats was the 72nd Congress, elected in 1932. A 93 seat gain would leave the GOP about 3 seats better than the Democrats were sitting under House Speaker Tip O'Neill in the wake of 1982 elections. The greatest single year reverse was the election of 1894, when the GOP picked up 130 seats, at that time the size of the chamber was only 356. Libertarian Gold Democrat Grover Cleveland had taken office in March 1893. The month before, due to mismanagement by the Silver Republicans under Benjamin Harrison, the Panic was set off by the collapse of the Philadelphia and Reading Railroad. The result was the closest experience to modern mass industrial unemployment that had yet been seen up to that time (the word 'unemployment' was as yet less than two decades old, and by all accounts peripheral to the study of economics). By 1894 things were so bad that the realignment of 1896 was underway.

[Torie]

An interesting exercise would be to find CD's with Dem PVI of +3% or less, where there is a poll of some "recentcy" (like in the last couple of months) showing the Dem reasonably safe.

Yes, you have Boucher in VA-9 up +10%, with his margin eroding, and him spending millions on TV. Skelton was up +12%, but there is a questionable poll with him only up +3%.  No polls for TX-15 (Hinojosa) or Ill-12 (Costillo), and while Hinojosa is no doubt safe (Texas has that Bush PVI distortion aspect), Costillo maybe not. In Illinois 10 (PVI Dem +6), the GOP candidate in the seat Kirk is vacating, appears to have a slight edge now. And then there are some Dem vulnerables with Dem PVI +4% or more. You have PA 11 (Konjorski ; Dem +4%), WI-3 (Kind; +4% Dem), CA 47, and CO 7. Moving on to the Dem +5% class, we have  MA-10,  NM-1, and OH-13, and maybe CT-4 and CA-20.  

You need to hit Dem PVI +6, before it looks like the Dems have pretty smooth sailing. Other than Ill 10, unless you think PA 13 (Phil's favorite district) is in potential play, and of course the Delaware open and Djou's seat in Hawaii (Dem PVI +11), nothing much is there of interest - for the moment. (Well, maybe LA-2 will prove to be of interest, but I doubt it - that is probably a Dem pickup, but it would be nice to see a reputable poll confirming that.)

Addendum: I count about 21 seats that are Dem PVI +2% or less, that I think the Dems are reasonably strong favorites to hold (polls or no polls, and mostly no polls, so maybe some surprises here are in store). That is about it. The one's in bold look pretty bullet proof.


21    MS   4      Taylor       20
27   ID   1   Minnick   18
50   UT    2   matheson   15
77   TN    4   Davis   13
94   VA    9   Boucher   11
129   . PA   10   Carney,   8
144   . AR   4   Ross,   8
146   . OH   18   Space,   8
150   . WV   3   Rahall,   6
154   . NC   11   Shuler,   6
156   . PA   4   Altmire,   6
181   . MN   7   Peterson,   5
194   . NY   13   McMahon,   4
211   . NY   20   Murphy   2
222   . TX   27   Ortiz,   2
228   . MN   1   Walz,   1
232   . IL   8   Bean,   1
240   . TX   28   Cuellar,   even
251   . OR   5   Schrader,   -1
253   . OR   4   DeFazio,   -2
259   . KY   3   Yarmuth,   -2