2004 - The Election Decided - Moving On

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At 5:15 pm on January 17, 2004 - Senator John Kerry boards a light plan for the relatively short flight to Davenport, IA.

His daughter Vanessa is running late and will travel on the press bus.

The weather is abysmal, and only 2 miles from the airport the plane encounters technically difficulties, loses power and smashes into a field.

Paramedics arrive, and take the badly injured Senator to the hospital, but his massive internal injuries are too severe, and he dies at 6:40pm.

The new footage of the crash and Vanessa Kerry distraught running into the hospital fill the news , only a few short days from the Iowa Caucuses.

All candidates offer statements of deep shock and sympathy. Teresa Heinz-Kerry arrives in Davenport shortly after 7, after driving from Des Moines.

Discussions now emerge whether to continue with the Caucuses or consider delaying it.

President Bush offers a statement

Laura and I were stunned and deeply saddened by the death of Senator Kerry, and the others on the flight. John Kerry was a decorated war hero, and while he was a political opponent, we believed in many of the same principles. May God bless, and keep the families of all those who were lost.

Governor Howard Dean (who has been losing steam) suggests all candidates meet the following morning with the DNC Chair to determine a way forward. All candidates agree.

The next morning shortly before 8am, John Kerry's coffin is loaded onto a plane to be taken back to Boston.

After the candidates meeting, they release a joint statement

In the light of the tragic death of our friend and colleague Senator John Kerry, we have determined that the best cause of action is to move forward to contest the caucuses as we believe John would want and expect us to.


All candidates return to the trail. While significantly muted.

A poll released 2 days after Senator Kerry's death shows

- Dean 25%
- Edwards 23%
- Gephardt 15%
- Clark 12%
- Kerry 10%
- Undecided 15%

On caucus day the candidates scramble across the state... early exit polls suggest a squeaker...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Iowa Caucus

Dean - 31.2%
Edwards - 30.5%
Gephardt - 16.5%
Clark - 10.8%
Kerry - 7%
Other write-ins - 4%

Given the sombre mood, a brief victory statement was made by Governor Howard Dean. While he appeared to have won the most votes, Edwards won more delegates.

Dick Gephardt announces the next morning that he will not continue in the race.

Wesley Clark is determined to "see this race through until the end"

[feeblepizza]

This looks good so far. RIP Kerry. I think that Edwards/Dean or Dean/Edwards will face Bush in the general.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With the New Hampshire Primary now less than a week away the candidates return.

Joe Lieberman, who had sat out the Iowa Caucuses, returns to the fold. With Kerry out of the race, questions about whether having a candidate from Connecticut and one from Vermont will affect the result.

Wesley Clark races around the state, when asked by a Veteran "since Senator Kerry died, you're the only Military man left in the primary, do you think that's a big enough deal for me to vote for you" to which he responded "well, I believe the first responsiblity of the president is to defend the country as Commander-in-Chief. I don't believe that military experience negates other experience, but I think it certainly helps"

It seems Clark has found his niche.

Edwards continues with his 'two Americas', and Dean rallies advocating withdrawral from Iraq.


After a debate where Clark, Edwards and Lieberman dominated a poll came out which shows

Dean - 25%
Edwards 25%
Clark  - 19%
Lieberman - 15%
Unecided - 16%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

John Edwards - 29.6%
Wesley Clark - 27.5%
Howard Dean - 26.9%
Joe Lieberman - 14%
Other/Write-in - 2%

John Edwards celebrates his first victory of the primary season, however, the real story of the primary is the strong second showing of Wesley Clark and the distant 4th of the most recent Democratic Vice Presidential nomination.

In his statement Gen. Clark says "well, a week ago - we were told this would be a two-horse race. But what we have done together here in New Hampshire tells a very different stories, there are three horses in this race and this filly isn't going to stop"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dean/Edwards' 2004 !

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Coming out a strong second in New Hampshire forced Clark into a lead in several states.
Lieberman focused on Delaware, Dean also focused there, but made stops in Missouri, South Carolina, North Dakota, Arizona and New Mexico. John Edwards lived in South Carolina, but also visited Missouri, Oklahoma and Delaware.  Clark focused on the South-West, the plains and Missouri.
A series of negative ads which question Clark’s party identification emerged two days before Mini-Tuesday.
MINI TUESDAY
Arizona
Clark – 32%
Edwards – 29%
Dean – 24%
Lieberman – 10%
Others – 5%

Delaware
Dean – 31%
Lieberman – 27%
Edwards – 23%
Clark – 14%
Others – 5%

Missouri
Edwards – 39%
Clark – 25%
Dean – 16%
Liberman  - 13%
Others – 7%

New Mexico
Clark –  37%
Dean – 27%
Edwards –  25%
Lieberman – 6%
Others – 5%

North Dakota
Clark – 33%
Edwards – 33%
Dean – 16%
Lieberman – 6%
Others – 12% (including 5% Kerry write-ins)

Oklahoma
Edwards – 34%
Clark – 32%
Dean – 19%
Lieberman – 12%
Others – 3%

South Carolina
Edwards – 42%
Clark – 27%
Dean – 18%
Lieberman – 10%
Others – 3%

What was clear after Mini-Tuesday was that one-time Front-runner Howard Dean has (despite winning the Delaware primary) slipped into a pretty consistent 2nd or 3rd place behind John Edwards and/or Wesley Clark. Pundits are taking note of the fact that while Clark has won, his strength seems to be in the SW, and Edwards has scored some resounding victories in Missouri and South Carolina and earned more delegates than Clark in both Arizona and North Dakota.

It’s believed if Joe Lieberman doesn’t do well in the Maine caucuses later in the week, he will drop out of the race.

MICHIGAN CAUCUS

Edwards – 38%
Dean – 29%
Clark – 22%
Lieberman – 8%
Others – 3%

WASHINGTON CAUCUS

Dean – 40%
Edwards – 26%
Clark – 16%
Lieberman – 9%
Others – 9%

The 14% win for Dean was largely expected, in fact he had been leading in polls by as much as 25% days before the caucus.

MAINE CAUCUS

Dean – 39%
Edwards – 24%
Lieberman – 19%
Clark – 7%
Others – 11%

On the morning of February 9, Joe Lieberman suspends his campaign. However, the real story was the poor showing by Clark in Maine and Washington… does this suggest a lack of support from the left of the party?

Next: Tennessee and Virginia.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

On the day that Lieberman ended his run, the three remaining candidates criss-crossed Tennessee and Vrigina. Conventional wisdom says that being Senator from neighbouring North Carolina should help John Edwards, the pressure will be on both Clark (although from Arkansas) and Dean to keep the margin small and show that they can win outside of the SW/Plains  and the Liberal heartland of the NE and the West Coast respectively.
A national poll released on the day of the primaries shows:
Edwards - 29% (+1)
Dean – 25% (-3)
Clark – 23% (+7)
Other/Undecided – 23% (-5)

TENNESSEE PRIMARY
Edwards – 44%
Clark – 26%
Dean -  21%
Others – 9%

VIRGINIA PRIMARY
Edwards – 39%
Clark – 32%
Dean – 27%
Others – 2%

While Edwards won a clear victory in Tennessee, what is clear is that voting blocs have solidified behind the candidates, this was best reflected in the results in Virginia. Edwards is doing well among working-class white voters, women and voters 35-55. Dean continues to dominate among self-identified liberals, African-Americans and voters under 35. It seems Clark is doing well among veterans/military families, moderates, independents and voters over 55.

NEVADA CAUCUS

Edwards – 35%
Clark - 33%
Dean - 28%
Others – 4%
Next:  the battle for Wisconsin and Super Tuesday.

[Niemeyerite]

Dean defeating Bush would be perfect.

[Dancing with Myself]

Great job so far

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Early on the morning of the Wisconsin Primary, the lines snaking around polling places suggests that the Democratic base is getting increasingly energised.

Pundits say this is both good and bad. Should Dean win the nomination then it's feared that big constituencies that support Edwards and Clark could move to support President Bush. Equally, should Clark get the nomination, many left-wing voters may stay home or vote for Ralph Nader. Many fear a repeat of Florida in 2000.

The last poll showed

Edwards: 31
Clark: 30
Dean: 26
Undecided: 13

Early exits polling a somewhat inexplicable surge for Howard Dean in small counties along the Illinois border and immediately south of Milwaukee.


WISCONSIN PRIMARY

Dean - 35.31%
Edwards - 35.29%
Clark - 24.8%
Others - 4.6%

Dean's campaign, which had been showing signs of stagnating, has been clearly revived by this win, albeit a microscopic one.

Everyone wonders exactly how the polling which showed an Edwards-Clark dead-heat got it wrong?  They also consider this the perfect time for Dean to have momentum on his side, with states like California and New York and Ohio coming up.

Three other states' contests sit in between this and super-Tuesday.

HAWAII CAUCUS

Dean - 46%
Edwards - 20%
Clark - 19%
Write-ins: 15%

UTAH PRIMARY

Clark - 39%
Edwards - 29%
Dean - 19%
Write-ins: 13%

IDAHO CAUCUS

Clark - 31%
Edwards - 27%
Dean - 24%
Write-ins - 18%

The high proportion of write-ins were said to be protest votes that were triggered by very few candidate visits. The Super Tuesday states garnering more time and attention.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Super Tuesday now approached.

With a true 3-horse race underway the candidates darted across the country, with a sizeable number of Northeast states in competition, the expectation is that Dean should have a good night.

California

Edwards - 33.5%
Dean - 32.1%
Clark - 24.1%
Other - 11.3%

Connecticut

Dean - 36.4%
Edwards - 32.1%
Clark - 24.7%
Other - 6.8%

Georgia

Edwards - 42%
Clark - 29%
Dean - 26%
Other - 3%

Maryland

Edwards - 40%
Dean - 31%
Clark - 25%
Other - 4%

Massachusetts

Dean - 39%
Edwards - 31%
Clark - 25%
Other - 5%

Minnesota

Edwards - 36%
Dean - 30%
Clark 29%
Other - 5%

New York

Dean - 35%
Edwards - 34%
Clark - 25%
Other - 6%

Ohio

Edwards - 39%
Clark - 33%
Dean - 21%
Other - 7%

Rhode Island

Dean - 40%
Edwards - 28.3%
Clark - 28.2%
Other - 3.5%

Vermont

Dean - 61%
Edwards - 21%
Clark -15%
Other - 3%

------ the wash-up is coming....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

National Poll - March 5, 2004

Edwards 34% (+5)
Dean 31% (+6)
Clark 28% (+5)
Undecided 7% (-16%)

Match ups
Bush v Edwards - 42-45%
Bush v Dean - 44-41%
Bush v Clark - 40-41%

What is clear is that the democrats are increasingly divided, and drawing more support, not from each other, but from undecideds.

In national match-ups, Senator Edwards does best against President Bush, Governor Dean does slightly worse, and the Bush v Clark match-up is a close race with almost 20% undecided.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As it's clear that there are now three camps, each candidate is trying to draw support away from the other.

John Edwards is working that he can beat President Bush in November, and neither Clark or Dean can do that.

Howard Dean attacks Edwards for having voted to authorise the use of force in Iraq.

Clark is deliberately claiming 'the high ground' avoiding attacking either Edwards or Dean... basically claiming the 'outsider' position.

With the next races in based in the south, it's expected that Edwards will stamp his dominance on the race... or can there be upsets?

In a debate held the University of Texas, when asked a question about gay marriage - this is each's  response.

Edwards "I believe that gay and lesbian relationships should have protection and recognition under the law, now I believe that marriage is between a man and a woman, but I don't believe that denigrates other relationships"

Clark "oddly, this isn't an issue I've thought very much about. My view is that marriage should be held between a man and a woman, but we cannot have a tiered system of relationship recognition. It's a difficult terrain, and I honestly don't know where I am on that"

Dean "As Governor of Vermont I signed the bill that allowed for gay marriage. Personally, I think that's the right thing to do. General Clark talks about a tiered recognition for relationships, I personally think that's wrong. I'm not interested in doing things that will make people feel threatened, although, I don't see how it really is threatening, but as president, I want to do what I feel in my being is right"


While Governor Dean's response won him praise, the pundits feel with primaries in socially conservative states coming up, this might have been the beginning of the end.

Delegate wise, Edwards has a small lead over Dean, with Clark not far away.

FLORIDA PRIMARY

Edwards - 44%
Clark - 26%
Dean - 24%
Others - 6%


LOUISIANA PRIMARY

Edwards - 46%
Dean - 24%
Clark 23%
Others - 7%

MISSISSIPPI PRIMARY

Dean - 36%
Edwards - 34%
Clark - 24%
Others - 6%

TEXAS PRIMARY

Edwards - 35%
Clark - 32%
Dean - 29%
Others - 4%

Edwards did well, as expected, however Dean scored an upset in Mississippi, caused by his winning 63% of the African-American vote.  Interesting to note, in Florida, Dean did best in Democratic counties, Clark in Republican and Edwards's strength was among swing-voting areas.

The result is still close - while the remaining races would have to favour Edwards, sources close to Dean and Clark both say the Pennsylvania Primary on April 27 will be 'D-Day'.

[Niemeyerite]

great TL =)

[CatoMinor]

Great TL, and wow, didn't see Dean's win is MS coming

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

NATIONAL POLLING - WITH MAPS

Democrats

Edwards - 36% (+2)
Dean - 32% (+1)
Clark - 24% (-4)
Undecideds 8% (+1)

v Bush

Clark v Bush

C: 41 v B: 41

Edwards v Bush

E: 44 v B: 43

Dean v Bush

D: 39 v B: 43

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With upcoming contests favouring Edwards, the pressure is on Dean and Clark to try to wrestle as many delegates from him as possible. The momentum is ever-so slightly behind Edwards.

In an interview on CNN, former Vice President Al Gore says that he feels "the strongest nominee for our party is the person who can best create solutions to those issues, climate change, the War in Iraq, our increasing debt... I'm not in a position to endorse any of them."

On the same program, David Gergen says that going by the fact that Edwards, in polling, is ahead of the president, and scoring wins across the country, suggests that he would probably be the strongest general election candidate.

KANSAS CAUCUS

Edwards -  38%
Clark - 30%
Dean - 25%
Other - 7%

The next big battle will be for Illinois, with polling suggesting that Dean is polling well in Chicagoland and Edwards and Clark dividing downstate.

ILLINOIS PRIMARY

Dean - 41%
Edwards - 35%
Clark - 22%
Other - 2%

-- No one was quite expecting the recurrence of Lazarus Dean...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Sorry for giving my voice only now, but good job so far, Polnut

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've already decided how this will play out... so what are the predictions from here on?

[Niemeyerite]

Dean wins the nomination and the presidency =).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Candidates realise that every single delegate counts, and they hit Wyoming and Alaska.

John Edwards and Wes Clark get stuck in a snow-storm outside Anchorage, which meant that the final few hours of campaigning in Wyoming was left to Dean, which also involved preliminary forays into Colorado.

ALASKA CAUCUS

Clark - 34%
Edwards - 31%
Dean - 24%
Others - 11%

WYOMING CAUCUS

Clark - 35%
Dean - 34%
Edwards - 25%
Others - 6%

Both wins for Clark, but very narrow.

The delegate count has little variation... unless Edwards can win blow-out victories for the rest of the primaries, no one can presume a majority of delegates.

Who will cry uncle first?

[Progressive]

Clark will win I know it

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The problem for Clark is that he's winning states, but not enough delegates within those states to really challenge Edwards and Dean. He's also fighting the perception that he's attractive to conservatives and independents, which is making him unpopular with more 'traditional' democratic voting blocs, which explains his collapse in the polls.

After Dean won the expatriate primary, the focus is on the Colorado caucus in three days.

Dean needs to do well here, Edwards has the North Carolina Primary shortly which should strongly favour him. However, Clark needs to pull off an upset to survive until Pennsylvania, let alone his home-state primary in Arkansas in a month's time.

Dean, cleverly is focusing on Boulder and inner-city Denver, with Edwards hitting the suburbs, and Clark trying the rural areas and Colorado Springs.

The lines are long, all over the state, Clark is pushing that this is his "last stand"

The result...

COLORADO CAUCUS

Dean - 35.41%
Edwards - 35.24%
Clark - 28.26%
Others - 1.09%

Clark states that he's going to be considering his future in the race, and while Edwards cannot claim a vote win, he did win more delegates than Dean.


On April 14 Wesley Clark suspends his campaign but stops short of endorsing either of his rivals.

While at a dinner party in New York City, President Bill Clinton is overheard saying "Dean is a great champion for the progressives, but getting 65% in Massachusetts isn't going to help you win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio" Pundits suggest that there is growing unease among party elders at the idea of a Dean nomination, but none want to publicly say anything until Edwards has secured enough delegates to re-claim front-runner status.