It could take 25 years for a Tory revival in Scottland

[redcommander]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/it-could-take-25-years-to-revive-scottish-tories-1.1051305

[You kip if you want to...]

25 years is 25 years to fast.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Define 'revival'. The Tory position in Scotland has never really been stable, so there isn't really a benchmark to measure against.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

only 25 years?

[afleitch]

Define 'revival'. The Tory position in Scotland has never really been stable, so there isn't really a benchmark to measure against.

True. Conservatism in Scotland has never really been aligned to one 'conservative' party, even at it's height. Rewind fifty years and there were conservatives in the National Liberals, the Liberals, SNP (even Labour) etc. Local conservatism within local government was also unaligned for the most part. It's never been organised, so to say that it's disorganised or unstable misses the point a bit.

At the moment there is a right of centre party in Scotland (as right of centre as you can get in Scotland); it just doesn't proclaim that it is. It's the SNP. And of course the Scottish Tories are actually doing fine at Holyrood with a popular leader. They are consistently the 3rd party. It's as much as they can ever hope for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder whether the Scottish Tories may take a smaller hit next year than Tories elsewhere; they've got less to loose, after all.

[afleitch]

I wonder whether the Scottish Tories may take a smaller hit next year than Tories elsewhere; they've got less to loose, after all.

I can't see them loosing any of the 5 notional seats they hold (not even Carlaw can chuck away a stonking notional majority in Eastwood...I hope) due to both the individual MSP's involved and the nature of the 'second party' in each of these seats. Should the Lib Dems take a hit the Tories could advance at their expense in one or two seats (Aberdeenshire West for example)

It all depends on the campaign, which depends on the media. Unfortunately every Scottish election since 1999 has been met with a 'Tories at 9% in poll = wipeout' narrative. Sometimes we believe it too. But there has to be a reality check. We are a third party with a Lowland base. Perthshire, Aberdeenshire etc are lost because of tactical voting on all sides; to keep the Tories out in some places, and by Tory voters trying to keep Labour out in others (see Stirling)

The biggest mistake (expressed privately at least) is not trying to form a coalition or pact with the SNP in 2007. This has been done during the budget etc with some good concessions but really should have been more formalised. I don't think it's too late either because the next election is not going to be the Labour 'shoo-in' that some are presuming. The Tories biggest asset (cough) is Annabel Goldie and she has to be entrenched as leader of the national party. The old duffers blocking the winnable regional lists have to be dropped letting people like Davina Rankin and Ruth Davidson through. It's not a difficult thing to do either; keep the big names on board to win the constituencies and let party preference and blind loyalty voting allow rising stars through the regional seats.

[minionofmidas]

We are a third party with a Lowland base. Perthshire, Aberdeenshire etc are lost because of tactical voting on all sides; to keep the Tories out in some places, and by Tory voters trying to keep Labour out in others (see Stirling)

They're still obviously part of your base, in a proportional setup. All in all, parts of Ayrshire and Renfrewshire notwithstanding, it's more of an East Coast base than a Lowlands base, really.

[Phony Moderate]

Define 'revival'. The Tory position in Scotland has never really been stable, so there isn't really a benchmark to measure against.

True. Conservatism in Scotland has never really been aligned to one 'conservative' party, even at it's height. Rewind fifty years and there were conservatives in the National Liberals, the Liberals, SNP (even Labour) etc. Local conservatism within local government was also unaligned for the most part. It's never been organised, so to say that it's disorganised or unstable misses the point a bit.

At the moment there is a right of centre party in Scotland (as right of centre as you can get in Scotland); it just doesn't proclaim that it is. It's the SNP. And of course the Scottish Tories are actually doing fine at Holyrood with a popular leader. They are consistently the 3rd party. It's as much as they can ever hope for.

I don't think that most of the SNP's supporters are "centre-right" though.

[Dr. Cynic]

Define 'revival'. The Tory position in Scotland has never really been stable, so there isn't really a benchmark to measure against.

True. Conservatism in Scotland has never really been aligned to one 'conservative' party, even at it's height. Rewind fifty years and there were conservatives in the National Liberals, the Liberals, SNP (even Labour) etc. Local conservatism within local government was also unaligned for the most part. It's never been organised, so to say that it's disorganised or unstable misses the point a bit.

At the moment there is a right of centre party in Scotland (as right of centre as you can get in Scotland); it just doesn't proclaim that it is. It's the SNP. And of course the Scottish Tories are actually doing fine at Holyrood with a popular leader. They are consistently the 3rd party. It's as much as they can ever hope for.

I don't think that most of the SNP's supporters are "centre-right" though.

No, they're pretty Left-nationalist. But I guess you could call them the most conservative party considering they might be a bit to the right of Scottish Labour and far to the right of the Scottish Socialists.