swing states 2008?

[angus]

you know, if you get a W tattooed on each cheek, then when you bend over it'll spell WOW. 

welcome to the forum dude

[Huckleberry Finn]

After Bush's success Republicans won't nominate moderate. Democrats maybe will, but not socially conservative. The liberal branch of the party seems to be too strong.

So the situation will be probably same like it was now.

2008 battlegrounds

Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
New Hampshire

Plus new battlegrounds

Arizona
Nevada
Colorado


 

[danwxman]

After Bush's success Republicans won't nominate moderate. Democrats maybe will, but not socially conservative. The liberal branch of the party seems to be too strong.

So the situation will be probably same like it was now.

2008 battlegrounds

Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
New Hampshire

Plus new battlegrounds

Arizona
Nevada
Colorado


 

This is precisely the problem. Those evangelicals that handed the election to Bush won't vote for Guiliani, who lived with a *gay* couple after he *divorced*

[A18]

I'm a Christian, and I'll probably vote for Giuliani if he enters the primary.

[danwxman]

I'm a Christian, and I'll probably vote for Giuliani if he enters the primary.

I'm a Christian, and I voted for John Kerry.

[MODU]

I'm a Christian, and I'll probably vote for Giuliani if he enters the primary.

I'm a Christian, and I voted for John Kerry.

I'm a Christian, and I voted for Ross Perot.  *laughs*

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm a Christian, and I'll probably vote for Giuliani if he enters the primary.

I'm a Christian, and I voted for John Kerry.

I'm a Christian, and I voted for Ross Perot.  *laughs*

I'm a Christian, and I voted for Clinton.  And would have voted for him in 1992 had I been old enough.

[Smash255]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

the state of New York.

You heard it here first.  You heard it here correctly.

Only way NY is even close is Guliani runs (and Dems would still win then) and NO WAY do the Republicans nominate a Pro-Choice, pro-gay Rightss Pro-Gun Control candidate

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tell that to past Republican nominees Pat Buchanan and John McCain.

Geographically though, there is basically no way Guiliani could win the nomination. He'd basically have to write off Iowa, unless one honestly believes Iowa Republicans would readily embrace a socially liberal playboy from the northeast with an anti-gun record as thick as a phonebook. And as soon as South Carolina came around (he obviously wouldn't do well there), any momentum he had would be gone.

[angus]

Tell that to past Republican nominees Pat Buchanan and John McCain.

Geographically though, there is basically no way Guiliani could win the nomination. He'd basically have to write off Iowa, unless one honestly believes Iowa Republicans would readily embrace a socially liberal playboy from the northeast with an anti-gun record as thick as a phonebook. And as soon as South Carolina came around (he obviously wouldn't do well there), any momentum he had would be gone.

wasn't sure the post would be understood, but I can tell from your reply that you did understand the gist of it.  yeah, I selectively didn't mention Iowa, for the reasons you state.  Also, I'm not sure Iowans can cross-over and vote in another party's primary the way New Hampshire folks can.  Not too sure about SC either.  But in those states where it is possible, there is a history of folks doing it just to fuzzy the nomination process, stretch it out.  And if it were, say, Rudy and some Charleton Heston-approved GOP guy in front, many Dems might just try to vote Rudy in a GOP primary just to stretch it out.  Hard call, though.

[Democratic Hawk]

Any state on either side where the margin of victory was less than 10%

Dave

[Shira]

The same as in 2004 + VA + AZ - OR

[Shira]

The same as in 2004 + VA + AZ - OR

[A18]

The same as in 2004 + VA + AZ - OR

- VA + HI + NY

[Erc]

Ridiculously Democratic States (Kerry beats his national perecentage of the Bush-Kerry vote by 10+ points): 53 EVs

DC
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont
New York

Solid Dem States (+5):  114--total of 167

Maryland
Connecticut
California
Illinois
Hawaii
Maine (not counting CD2)
Delaware
Washington

Barring a landslide, these states will be going Democrat.


Ridiculous Republican States (+10):  45 EV's
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Nebraska
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Alaska
Kansas
Alabama

Solid Republican States (+5)  108 EV's

Texas
South Dakota
Indiana
Montana
Mississippi
Kentucky
South Carolina
Georgia
Louisiana
Tennessee

For a total of 153 EV's.

I can say with certainty that each and every one of those states will not switch sides for the next election.


Heavily Lean Democrat (+3):  (49 EV's)

New Jersey
Oregon
Minnesota
Michigan

For a total of 216.


Heavily Lean Republican (+3): 

West Virginia
North Carolina
Arizona
Arkansas

For a total of 189.


Remember, of course, that this assumes a dead-even race.  If the Republican is ahead (as he was this time around), leaning states (like MN & MI) may seem in reach, while tossups (like MO & VA) may seem solid.


So this little method leaves as tossups (in order of most to least tossup):

Nevada
Ohio
New Mexico
Iowa
Florida
Colorado
Wisconsin
Missouri
New Hampshire
Virginia
Pennsylvania

and MECD somewhere.  But I have no data on it, so I can't make a judgment.



Disclaimer:  I don't actually believe VA is a swing state.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Giuliani runs for the GOP, does that turn NY into a swing state?

How about Giuliani vs. Hillary?

[angus]

If Giuliani runs for the GOP, does that turn NY into a swing state?

How about Giuliani vs. Hillary?

that's the subtext. 

My hard-earned (yeah, right) money is on Rudy!

[A18]

If Hillary runs, it doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is. The only swing state in that election will be DC.

[Erc]

Well, if Hillary runs against a conservative, then she has a good shot of taking the 167 core Democratic votes.

If it's Guiliani v. Hillary...well, the Dem base will be energized while the Republican base might not be...but even then there's no way Hillary would come close to a victory.


Jeb v. Hillary, folks...

Jeb v. Hillary...

[angus]

daddy, junior, and bro?

pretty creepy, even for hard-core plutocrats, don't ya think?

[Horus]

Very sad.

If we ever want victory again we have to nominate someone that is NOT Hillary. Bush III would be scary, and Jeb running isn't unlikely. Turnout would be so low if that were the case, but Jeb would still win handily. Let's nominate a candidate that can WIN. PLEASE!

Still, Hillary will probably behave as badly as Dean if not worse and people will come to their senses.

[danwxman]

Wow....did anyone see Dick Morris on O'Reilly tonight? He said if Hillary ran she would win. He did pretty well with the last election.

[struct310]

A lot of people are going to be wrong about Washington being solid democrat.  Spokane county in Washington is one of the fastest growing counties in the country and Bush won it by a larger percentage in 2004 than he did in 2000.  Bush increased his vote share in Pierce and Clark counties in the state as well.  He decreased only in Whatcom and Cowlitz.  Bush was stable in Snohomish. Everyone also seems to forget that King county(seattle) rivals LA county as the most Republican voting big liberal cities in the nation.  King did over 30% as did LA for Bush.  Compare those counties to Cook county in Illinois, Wayne in Michigan, the massive New York counties, and all the counties where the urban city liberals are set up.   

[A18]

Wow....did anyone see Dick Morris on O'Reilly tonight? He said if Hillary ran she would win. He did pretty well with the last election.

Yeah. He only got every prediction he made completely wrong.

[ATFFL]

Wow....did anyone see Dick Morris on O'Reilly tonight? He said if Hillary ran she would win. He did pretty well with the last election.

Yeah, seeing as her predicted everyone running would win (except Cobb, he said he was hopeless) how could Morris be wrong?

Expect Rudy to move to the right socially if he gets a post in W 2.  He will suddenly be pro-states on abortion, anti-gay marriage and the partial birth abortion ban will make perfect sense to him.  He will plant himself in the middle socially and pick a strong conservative VP to give him some street cred with the evangelicals.