IL-11/POS (R): Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) in deep trouble

[Tender Branson]

Public Opinion Strategies:

Adam Kinzinger (R): 51%
Debbie Halvorson (D): 40%

Among "high-interest voters":

Adam Kinzinger (R): 57%
Debbie Halvorson (D): 35%

...

Turnover is part of any campaign, says a spokesman for Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson about this week’s firing of her campaign manager, Travis Worl.

“Travis is no longer with our campaign,” the Crete Democrat’s spokesman, Ryan Vanderbilt, noted today.

“He did a good job getting everything up and running to put us in a position to win, going into November. But now, as we look past Labor Day toward the fall, a decision was made to bring in someone new.”

Vanderbilt denied the firing had anything to do with Worl’s questioning whether Republican Adam Kinzinger, Halvorson’s opponent in the Nov. 2 general election, had inflated his role as a temporary Air Force Special Operations pilot with the Wisconsin National Guard.

“No, it did not,” Vanderbilt said. “We decided to bring in someone new because she wanted to.”

Worl joined Halvorson’s campaign as its manager earlier this summer. He had worked on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign.

Vanderbilt also denied that Halvorson’s re-election campaign might be on shaky ground.

“No, no,” he said. “She’s in a good position to win in the fall.”

http://www.morrisdailyherald.com/articles/2010/08/19/50413062/index.xml

[Sam Spade]

Although in internal poll and generally junk in my mind, the evidence continues to pile up that if a GOP wave occurs, it will be centered in:

1) the suburbs, especially so-called "formerly" GOP suburbs, "trending" away from the GOP; and
2) other historically GOP areas (i.e. not those areas that have recently started voting such in Presidential elections).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Judging from the kind of numbers being put up by Illinois Democrats statewide, it's pretty clear that Republicans could be in for a number of gains there in the House.

This would represent the "easy" one -- I've presumed Halvorson would lose for a while now.

[muon2]

Judging from the kind of numbers being put up by Illinois Democrats statewide, it's pretty clear that Republicans could be in for a number of gains there in the House.

This would represent the "easy" one -- I've presumed Halvorson would lose for a while now.

Dems in the 11th district rely on a good turnout from Joliet. Without that the returns from LaSalle and Kankakee aren't usually enough. Joliet fits the pattern for a community expected to have below-average turnout this year, so that's part of her difficulty.