Australian Election Prediction Contest

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, yeah. Predict the following...

National 2PP vote

Seats per Party, nationally.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Tasmania
ACT
Northern Territory

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon

Northern Territory
Solomon

South Australia
Boothby
Sturt

Western Australia
Canning
Cowan
Hasluck
Stirling
Swan

Victoria
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe
McEwen
Melbourne

Queensland
Brisbane
Dawson
Dickson
Fisher
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Hinkler
Leichardt
Longman
Ryan
Wright

New South Wales
Bennelong
Cowper
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hughes
Lindsay
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Paterson
Riverina
Robertson

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat
Closest Seat
Highest Swing
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2007. You may predict 'none')

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

National 2PP vote

ALP - 51.4%
Coalition - 48.6%

Seats per Party, nationally.
ALP - 77
Coalition - 69
Independent - 3
Green - 1

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales 51.6-48.4
Victoria 56.3-43.7
Queensland 53.2-46.2
Western Australia 54.6-45.4
South Australia 54.3-45.7
Tasmania 57.1-42.9
ACT 62.8-37.2
Northern Territory 55.5-44.5

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon

Northern Territory
Solomon

South Australia
Boothby
Sturt*

Western Australia
Canning
Cowan
Hasluck
Stirling
Swan

Victoria
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe
McEwen
Melbourne*

Queensland
Bowman
Brisbane
Dawson
Dickson
Fisher
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Hinkler
Leichardt
Longman
Ryan
Wright

New South Wales
Bennelong
Cowper
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hughes
Lindsay
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Paterson
Riverina
Robertson

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - there is a rock-solid 30% Liberal vote in the ACT - and they only need 33% for the seat...

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat - Batman, VIC
Closest Seat - Canning, WA
Highest Swing - NS
Random Upset - Melbourne to the Greens

[Platypus]

National 2PP vote
Australian Labor Party 51.6%
Liberal/National Coalition 48.4%

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor Party: 81 seats
Liberal Party: 42 seats
Liberal National Party: 17 seats
National Party: 6 seats
Australian Greens: 1 seat
Independent: 3 seats

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
ALP 51.8%
Victoria
ALP 55.9%
Queensland
LNP 53.8%
Western Australia
LIB/NAT 55.1%
South Australia
ALP 52.9%
Tasmania
ALP 55.0%
ACT
ALP 66.0%
Northern Territory
ALP 58.5%

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass: Liberal
Braddon: ALP

Northern Territory
Solomon: ALP

South Australia
Boothby: Liberal
Sturt: ALP

Western Australia
Canning: Liberal
Cowan: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
Stirling: Liberal
Swan: ALP

Victoria
Corangamite: ALP
Deakin: ALP
LaTrobe: ALP
McEwen: ALP
Melbourne: Greens

Queensland
Bowman: LNP
Brisbane: ALP
Dawson: LNP
Dickson: LNP
Fisher: LNP
Flynn: ALP
Forde: ALP
Herbert: LNP
Hinkler: LNP
Leichardt: LNP
Longman: LNP
Ryan: LNP
Wright: LNP

New South Wales
Bennelong: ALP
Cowper: National
Dobell: ALP
Eden-Monaro: ALP
Gilmore: ALP
Greenway: ALP
Hughes: Liberal
Lindsay: ALP
Macarthur: ALP
Macquarie: Liberal
Page: ALP
Paterson: Liberal
Riverina: National
Robertson: Liberal

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat
Batman (VIC)

Closest Seat
Forde (QLD)

Highest Swing
Leichhardt (QLD)

Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2007. You may predict 'none')
none, unless you count Melbourne

[Platypus]

Also included Bowman as a prediction seat, should've been there from the start sorry

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=-3.2&vic=0.9&qld=-3.8&wa=-3.4&sa=1.1&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

I reserve the right to update this projection in 36 hours.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor won't win Sturt and the Libs won't win Eden-Monaro... I really have doubts about them losing Bennelong too.

[Smid]

It's times like this I wish I had a sock... unfortunately I haven't been anonymous enough on the site to be able to really put out my tips.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=-2&vic=1.9&qld=-3.6&wa=-3.1&sa=1.5&tas=-1.2&act=0.5&nt=-0.4&retiringfactor=1

[Хahar 🤔]

The federal party in Queensland isn't called the LNP, is it?

[Phony Moderate]

National 2PP vote
Australian Labor Party 51.4%
Liberal/National Coalition 48.6%

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor Party: 77 seats
Liberal Party: 69 seats
Australian Greens: 1 seat
Independent: 3 seats

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
ALP 51.5%
Victoria
ALP 56.9%
Queensland
LNP 53.5%
Western Australia
LIB/NAT 54.5%
South Australia
ALP 52.6%
Tasmania
ALP 54.8%
ACT
ALP 65.5%
Northern Territory
ALP 58.2%

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass: Liberal
Braddon: ALP

Northern Territory
Solomon: ALP

South Australia
Boothby: Liberal
Sturt: ALP

Western Australia
Canning: Liberal
Cowan: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
Stirling: Liberal
Swan: ALP

Victoria
Corangamite: ALP
Deakin: ALP
LaTrobe: ALP
McEwen: ALP
Melbourne: Greens

Queensland
Bowman: LNP
Brisbane: ALP
Dawson: LNP
Dickson: LNP
Fisher: LNP
Flynn: ALP
Forde: ALP
Herbert: LNP
Hinkler: LNP
Leichardt: LNP
Longman: LNP
Ryan: LNP
Wright: LNP

New South Wales
Bennelong: ALP
Cowper: National
Dobell: ALP
Eden-Monaro: ALP
Gilmore: ALP
Greenway: ALP
Hughes: Liberal
Lindsay: ALP
Macarthur: ALP
Macquarie: Liberal
Page: ALP
Paterson: Liberal
Riverina: National
Robertson: Liberal

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The federal party in Queensland isn't called the LNP, is it?

It is, the Liberals and the Nationals formally merged.

[Хahar 🤔]

The federal party in Queensland isn't called the LNP, is it?

It is, the Liberals and the Nationals formally merged.

Apparently this applies on the national level as well as the state level. I did not know that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There really isn't a Federal Party, each person is a member of the Party in their State or Territory.

[Platypus]

New prediction is on my facebook page. Can't be stuffed copying it over just yet, but basically ALP 78, Coalition 68, Green 1, Independent 3. Just posting this for timing's sake.

[You kip if you want to...]

National 2PP vote 50.9 - 49.1 to the ALP

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor - 72
Liberal - 67
Nationals - 7
Independants - 3
Greens - 1

I think the two Independants who are former Nationals will go to the Liberals and the other one and the Green will go to Labor.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
50.5-49.5 to the Coalition

Victoria
55.6-44.4 to the ALP

Queensland
55-45 to the Coalition

Western Australia
54-46 - to the Coalition

South Australia
55.4-44.6 to the ALP

Tasmania
58-42 to the ALP

ACT
63.9-36.1 to the ALP

Northern Territory
56.9-43.1 to the ALP


Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon

Northern Territory
Solomon

South Australia
Boothby
Sturt

Western Australia
Canning
Cowan
Hasluck
Stirling
Swan

Victoria
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe
McEwen
Melbourne

Queensland
Brisbane
Dawson
Dickson
Fisher
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Hinkler
Leichardt
Longman
Ryan
Wright

New South Wales
Bennelong
Cowper (NAT)
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hughes
Lindsay
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Paterson
Riverina (NAT)
Robertson

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat - Batman
Closest Seat - Eden Monaro
Highest Swing - Melbourne (from Lab to Grn)
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2007. You may predict 'none') - Lalor. haha

[Hash]

National 2PP vote

ALP - 51.6%
Coalition - 48.4%

Seats per Party, nationally.

ALP - 77
Coalition - 69 (incl. 6 Nationals, bunch of LNPers)
Indies - 3
Greenies - 1

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales: 51.8-48.2 ALP
Victoria: 55.5-44.5 ALP
Queensland: 53-47 LNP
Western Australia: 55-45 COAL
South Australia: 53-47 ALP
Tasmania: 55.5-44.5 ALP
ACT: 65-35 ALP
Northern Territory: 55.5-44.5 ALP

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass: ALP
Braddon: ALP

Northern Territory
Solomon: ALP

South Australia
Boothby: Liberal
Sturt: Liberal

Western Australia
Canning: Liberal
Cowan: Liberal
Hasluck: ALP
Stirling: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Victoria
Corangamite: ALP
Deakin: ALP
LaTrobe: ALP
McEwen: ALP
Melbourne: Greenies

Queensland
Brisbane: ALP
Dawson: LNP
Dickson: LNP
Fisher: LNP
Flynn: LNP
Forde: LNP
Herbert: LNP
Hinkler: LNP
Leichardt: ALP
Longman: LNP
Ryan: LNP
Wright: LNP

New South Wales
Bennelong: Liberal
Cowper: Nationals
Dobell: ALP
Eden-Monaro: ALP
Gilmore: Liberal
Greenway: ALP
Hughes: Liberal
Lindsay: ALP
Macarthur: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
Page: ALP
Paterson: Liberal
Riverina: Nationals
Robertson: Liberal

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat: Batman, ALP, majority over 25%
Closest Seat: Forde, LNP, majority under 0.1%
Highest Swing: Melbourne probably
Random Upset: none

nb: I like hate Tony Abbott too much for this to be correct

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fwiw, the 2007 Labor majority in Melbourne over the Greens was 4.7 in Australian terms (9.4 elsewhere).

[Mr. Morden]

National 2PP vote 50.9 - 49.1 to the ALP

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor - 72
Liberal - 67
Nationals - 7
Independants - 3
Greens - 1

I think the two Independants who are former Nationals will go to the Liberals and the other one and the Green will go to Labor.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
50.5-49.5 to the Coalition

Victoria
55.6-44.4 to the ALP

Queensland
55-45 to the Coalition

Western Australia
54-46 - to the Coalition

South Australia
55.4-44.6 to the ALP

Tasmania
58-42 to the ALP

ACT
63.9-36.1 to the ALP

Northern Territory
56.9-43.1 to the ALP

This is remarkably close to the actual result.

[You kip if you want to...]

National 2PP vote 50.9 - 49.1 to the ALP

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor - 72
Liberal - 67
Nationals - 7
Independants - 3
Greens - 1

I think the two Independants who are former Nationals will go to the Liberals and the other one and the Green will go to Labor.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
50.5-49.5 to the Coalition

Victoria
55.6-44.4 to the ALP

Queensland
55-45 to the Coalition

Western Australia
54-46 - to the Coalition

South Australia
55.4-44.6 to the ALP

Tasmania
58-42 to the ALP

ACT
63.9-36.1 to the ALP

Northern Territory
56.9-43.1 to the ALP

This is remarkably close to the actual result.

I was thinking that. I had almost no confidence in the predictions at the time either, especially not the Coalition being the largest party.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How close did I end up coming

[Platypus]

FWIW, I received this prediction by PM from *name redacted*. Pretty good I reckon.

National 2PP vote
Labor 50.8%
Coalition 49.2%

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor 74
Liberal 65
Nationals 7
Greens 1
Independents 3

Heck! It seems I've just predicted a hung parliament! Antony Green's calculator predicts a stronger result for the Coalition, based on the numbers I've put in from here, but I think Labor will do better in the marginals than his formula predicts. Maybe we can give Labor Longman as well, it was a tough call, but I was giving it to the Coalition.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales 50.5%-49.5%
Victoria 54.8%-45.2%
Queensland 54.5%-45.5%
Western Australia 56.3%-43.7%
South Australia 52.5%-47.5%
Tasmania 56%-44%
ACT 63%-37%
Northern Territory 55%-45%

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass -ALP. Very tough call.
Braddon -ALP

Northern Territory
Solomon -ALP. The previous MP defeated at the last election was quite popular (now in the Territory Parliament). His personal vote will now dissipate. When Labor won Chief Minister (for the first time in history/25 years), people thought it was an aberration and would revert at the following election. That clearly didn't happen and the Darwin suburbs have shown a tenacity in voting Labor and not returning to the Liberal fold. I suspect this will be the case in Solomon, even though the area tends to be a natural CLP constituency.

South Australia
Boothby -Liberal
Sturt -Liberal "Don't be formal, call me Christopher"

Western Australia
Canning -Liberal
Cowan -Liberal
Hasluck -Liberal
Stirling -Liberal
Swan -Liberal

Victoria
Corangamite -Liberal Labor incumbent is apparently very unpopular. If he hangs on it will be because of growth in the Geelong suburbs, but I think it will be a Liberal gain. The redistribution means the seat will be safer Liberal at the next election.
Deakin -ALP
LaTrobe -ALP
McEwen -ALP 10,000 new voters, whose houses didn't even exist at the last election. They're living there because they've been priced out of the property market in northern and western Melbourne.
Melbourne -Greens Tough call

Queensland
Brisbane -ALP Tough call and will be close.
Dawson -LNP Takes in Proserpine and other peripheral areas to the mines, and we all know how well the mining tax polls in Qld. Labor won it on a big swing last election and the LNP candidate seems to be a strong one.
Dickson -LNP I don't think his constituents would have been terribly pleased that he was planning on jumping to another electorate because his isn't safe enough following the redistribution (of course, he won it when it was a Labor-held seat in the first place and prior to the previous redistribution, it was always a marginal seat), but regardless, he is rather popular up there and I think he'll be returned. The toxicity of the state government and Gillard's unpopularity will also help him.
Fisher -LNP
Flynn -LNP Seat gained by Labor last election on a big swing. The bits that were farmers voted for the National and the bits that were mining voted Labor. Don't know if that will be the case following the mining tax.
Forde -ALP Very tough call. I originally had this as LNP, but I've changed my mind. Has quite a few Labor areas, and the redistribution creating a new seat adjacent to it has taken many Liberal-voting areas out of the seat (much of the reason the new seat is notionally LNP). I flirted with putting this seat in the blue column for a couple of reasons - firstly the Rudd affect of last election, which led to a large swing to Labor (although more of it had to do with the exceptionally popular incumbent member retiring), there is also a very large church in this electorate , also the toxicity of the state government could lead to people voting LNP. That said, most of the state seats in the electorate are safe Labor seats, so it has the potential to vote very strongly for the Labor Party. Still, I think it will be close, but for now I'm going to put it in the red column.
Herbert -LNP
Hinkler -LNP
Leichardt -LNP Gain. He probably would have held onto the seat if he hadn't announced his retirement last election. He was extremely popular in his electorate. He's a moderate Liberal and I think he'll win back the seat he represented previously.
Longman -LNP Despite the best efforts of the LNP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This seat demonstrates everything that is wrong with the LNP. Still, Rudd was very popular, so wind back some of that, the state government is extremely unpopular, so wind it back some more... I just don't know if they'll vote Labor. The LNP has tried pretty hard to lose the seat, but I think they might just win it.
Ryan -LNP Redistribution added in Red Hill, Johnson decided to run as an independent, and Ian apparently was declared bankrupt. Still, I think the Liberals will outpoll Johnson, who might get 10% if he's lucky, and then his preferences will flow back to the LNP (I can't imagine many people voting for him after his scandal. This isn't another Peter King in Wentworth, this is him being disendorsed for apparently doing something dodgy and I don't think he'll get the votes).  Huge name recognition, very popular LNP candidate, she should win it. Her husband, Ian, represented the state seat of (then) Toowong prior to 1983, when he, and other members of the "ginger group" almost toppled the Joh regime - leading to the 1983 state election.
Wright -LNP
Bowman -LNP The margin is slimmer than it should be and will probably be increased at this election.
Bonner -ALP If the LNP win, it will be because Rudd was very popular in the parts he represented and they haven't forgiven Julia for what she did to him.

New South Wales
Bennelong -Liberal
Cowper -Nationals
Dobell -ALP Don't know... suspect Labor's unpopularity at a state level may tip it over the edge.
Eden-Monaro -ALP
Gilmore -Liberal Large number of welfare recipients... but most are old age pensioners. Labor isn't terribly popular with this age group.
Greenway -ALP Louise Markus switched seats for a reason... and she's about the only person who could win this seat for the Liberals.
Hughes -Liberal
Lindsay -Liberal Quite simply, Labor's unpopularity at a state level. There's a reason Gillard spent her first week of the campaign in Western Sydney.
Macarthur -Liberal
Macquarie -Liberal Louise Markus will be returning to Parliament.
Page -ALP Continued woe for the Nationals.
Paterson -Liberal
Riverina -Liberal State level, much of the seat is Liberal. They've defeated the Nationals in NSW at other recent elections over the past decade, most notably gaining Tim Fisher's seat upon his retirement. I think this could be a semi-surprise gain.
Robertson -Liberal Preselecting a new candidate won't help Labor. I suspect the electorate already regrets tossing out Jim Lloyd.

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator -Liberal Humphries to hold onto the second spot.

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat - Batman.
Closest Seat - Brisbane or Forde.
Highest Swing - Big swing from Nationals to Liberals in Riverina, big swing from Labor to LNP in Flynn and Capricornia.
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2007. You may predict 'none') - Melbourne possibly meets the requirement for an upset when the Greens win it. Possibly also Riverina when the Liberals gain the seat. Watch for the Nationals in O'Connor against Wilson Tuckey - they polled well in that area in the state election and will be assisted by mining magnate Clive Palmer who is throwing money at them to use for advertising, although they won't win, it will still be a big swing/surprise to some. Tuckey's hard right persona may actually be what saves him.

[You kip if you want to...]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

[Platypus]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

[Smid]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

Agree on all points. One thought I was kicking around on a 151st seat - could be a national at-large, which would basically go to the party with the most support (2PP) across the country, which I think would be a handy way of resolving ties. Perhaps have it linked to the party (like the Senate is), so it stays within the party instead of a by-election if something happens to the Member.

Incidently, the fact that there is not yet a result in those final five seats has nothing to do with AV/IRV and everything to do with the counting method - firstly, postals still have a few days to trickle in (they need to be postmarked from before the election, but that allows time for some to arrive from remote parts of Australia and overseas) and also by comparison, the UK counts throughout the night until there's a result... we count the booths then, and then we re-count to check for mistakes, and then we add in the postals - that's why it takes long... nothing to do with preference flows. Denison is the only place where that claim could be made, but again it will be finalised quickly once all the postals are in/counted. In the meantime, the lead can change because the second-placed candidate could fall behind the third-placed candidate (as happened yesterday), but this is no different from any other two candidates who are close together, either of whom could win (such as in Dunkley, Boothby, Hasluck, Corangamite, etc). Likewise, if the UK adopted a counting method like Australia's where there is an automatic recount in every seat and where postals can trickle in for a few days following the election, there would probably be close seats there that would change during the week following the election, even under FPTP. This sort of close result/flipping of seats happens every election - for the past two federal elections, I've scrutineered the recount/postals in a marginal seat for this very reason.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Mayor of Montreal runs for council, but, if elected as Mayor, sits as Mayor and not in Council.

"What does this have to do with anything Teddy?"

The 151st seat can be for the Prime Minister. The idea would be that you run a second party candidate in the PM's seat, and have them preferenced #2 on all party votes. Therefore when the PM wins the nationwide seat, he/she is removed from balloting, and their "fill in" gets the seat.