9/11 factor in NY, NJ

[bushforever]

Even though 9/11 may have not gave Bush New York and New Jersey, it definitely played a role in some counties.

Monmouth and Ocean Counties on the North Jersey shore went quite heavily for Bush (55% and 60% respectively).  In 2000, Monmouth went Gore and Ocean narrowly went Bush.

Bush won Staten Island by a good margin  (+55%).

Nassau NY, Bergen NJ, Middlesex NJ, and other counties were closer than last time as well.

I think if Giuliani runs in 2008, he could pick off some more counties as well.

[patrick1]

Even though 9/11 may have not gave Bush New York and New Jersey, it definitely played a role in some counties.

Monmouth and Ocean Counties on the North Jersey shore went quite heavily for Bush (55% and 60% respectively).  In 2000, Monmouth went Gore and Ocean narrowly went Bush.

Bush won Staten Island by a good margin  (+55%).

Nassau NY, Bergen NJ, Middlesex NJ, and other counties were closer than last time as well.

I think if Giuliani runs in 2008, he could pick off some more counties as well.

Nassau went like 58% to 38%  Gore in 2000.  This time it is like 52% to 47%.  Suffolk is running like 49% for both with Kerry having slight lead. If Rudy ran in 2008 I guarantee he would win Nassau and Suffolk.  Even before 9/11 suburan New Yorkers loved Rudy and his leadership on 9/11 have only increased that popularity.  Irony is that Rudy was always liked a lot more by suburban commuters in NY and Nj than he was by the residents of New York City. 

[patrick1]

Rudy would win New York if he ran in 2008.  Calculus for a statewide Republican victory is usually to hold defeat in NYC to around 60% to 65%, win suburbs like Nassau/Suffolk and Rockland like 55% and win upstate like 58%.  Rudy would have no problems doing this.  After all he should he is from New York.  This would spell disaster for Democratic electoral hopes. 62 vote swing   

[bushforever]

He could win NJ handily too.  I think if he made Bergen, Passaic, etc. swing his way, keep votes down in Hudson Co., and GOTV in Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, Washington, etc. 

The NY theory is even more interesting & exciting though...however, it might be tough with Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse being so democrat as well.

[patrick1]

The 58% figure is probably too higher in my NYS analysis.  Upstate cities have been losing poulation rapidly. Rudy would get enough Democrats and win the state.