Is the US entering a double-dip recession?

[Oakvale]

It's possible, technically, but you'd have to be quite economically illiterate to think that the chance of such occuring is >50%, and thus, more likely than not.

The economic indicators from the US have been modestly positive, as a rule. The numbers aren't overwhelming, but they're moving in the right direction. Productivity has decreased [1]. manufacturing is edging upwards, etc, etc. Unemployment isn't great, but not as bad as it at one point looked likely to be.

Of course, a bolder stimulus would have improved these numbers, and it's not too late for another stimulus, although  the politics are obviously bad.

[1] NB: This is a good thing. Less productive workers = more hirings.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

I just don't think Democrats are going to go through all that work to help improve the economy for Republicans hold the House in 2012. 

What if the Dems keep the House in 2010? Also, even if Dems lose the House this year, they'd still want to help Obama get reelected.

I dont think you realize how pissed off Democrats are at Obama.  They believe he wants them to lose the House so he can triangulate his way to reelection in 2012.  They see him out of the White House as their only way back to power. 

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

I just don't think Democrats are going to go through all that work to help improve the economy for Republicans hold the House in 2012. 

What if the Dems keep the House in 2010? Also, even if Dems lose the House this year, they'd still want to help Obama get reelected.

I dont think you realize how pissed off Democrats are at Obama.  They believe he wants them to lose the House so he can triangulate his way to reelection in 2012.  They see him out of the White House as their only way back to power. 

I'm sure there is some dissatisfaction with Obama. However, I don't think Democrats are that angry at him and I don't think Obama honestly cares whether the Dems will keep Congress or not. Clinton wasn't reelected due to triangulation--he was reelected due to the economic recovery. For Obama, the economy, not triangulation or who is going to control Congress, is going to be the main point to decide whether or not he is reelected. What sources are you getting your info from?

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

I just don't think Democrats are going to go through all that work to help improve the economy for Republicans hold the House in 2012. 

What if the Dems keep the House in 2010? Also, even if Dems lose the House this year, they'd still want to help Obama get reelected.

I dont think you realize how pissed off Democrats are at Obama.  They believe he wants them to lose the House so he can triangulate his way to reelection in 2012.  They see him out of the White House as their only way back to power. 

I'm sure there is some dissatisfaction with Obama. However, I don't think Democrats are that angry at him and I don't think Obama honestly cares whether the Dems will keep Congress or not. Clinton wasn't reelected due to triangulation--he was reelected due to the economic recovery. For Obama, the economy, not triangulation or who is going to control Congress, is going to be the main point to decide whether or not he is reelected. What sources are you getting your info from?

Things that Nancy Pelosi and many "unnamed sources" have been saying.  They think Obama is putting his own reelection ahead of helping Democrats keep the House and they hate him for this.  They want to fall into the same trap they fell into with Clinton.

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

I just don't think Democrats are going to go through all that work to help improve the economy for Republicans hold the House in 2012. 

What if the Dems keep the House in 2010? Also, even if Dems lose the House this year, they'd still want to help Obama get reelected.

I dont think you realize how pissed off Democrats are at Obama.  They believe he wants them to lose the House so he can triangulate his way to reelection in 2012.  They see him out of the White House as their only way back to power. 

I'm sure there is some dissatisfaction with Obama. However, I don't think Democrats are that angry at him and I don't think Obama honestly cares whether the Dems will keep Congress or not. Clinton wasn't reelected due to triangulation--he was reelected due to the economic recovery. For Obama, the economy, not triangulation or who is going to control Congress, is going to be the main point to decide whether or not he is reelected. What sources are you getting your info from?

Things that Nancy Pelosi and many "unnamed sources" have been saying.  They think Obama is putting his own reelection ahead of helping Democrats keep the House and they hate him for this.  They want to fall into the same trap they fell into with Clinton.

I really haven't heard Pelosi or other unnamed sources saying a lot of bad things about Obama. The only time I remember Pelosi got angry recently was when Robert Gibbs said that Democrats might lose the House, and even after that Pelosi became quiet pretty quickly. And at least Pelosi and the other Democrats know that Obama is more committed in passing his agenda than Clinton was.