Is the US entering a double-dip recession?

[You kip if you want to...]

I think it is, but i'm not an economist, so...

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

[Vepres]

My gut says no.

[Zarn]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

Didn't work last time.

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

Didn't work last time.

I beg to differ. Unemployment would have probably been 11-12% right now without the stimulus, in contrast to the 9.5% we have now.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

Didn't work last time.

Yeah.. if the government just doesn't spend any money and put that money into the economy.. then things will be better.

Things would be great right now if we didn't have the stimulus!

It was basically free money.  Sure it was borrowed... but we can grow our way out of that.. but first we have to actually stimulate the economy.

30 years of supply side has left us with a demand glut.

[Sbane]

I don't forsee a crash or the economy contracting at a large pace. But there will be anemic growth at best for at least the next year.

[opebo]

30 years of supply side has left us with a demand glut.

Well actually a supply glut, or a dearth of demand, Sowday.  If it hadn't been for the bailout and stimulus we would definitely not be out of recession right now.  Of course keep in mind everyone, the actual stimulus was negligable.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

[??????????]

Having a double dip implies that you got out of the first dip.

[Bo]

Having a double dip implies that you got out of the first dip.

We did get out of the first dip since we have positive GDP growth now.

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

[Sam Spade]

It is premature to talk of a double dip when we are still in the first dip, and have no chance of getting out unless our economic and monetary policies change mightily.

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

I just dont think Democrats are going to go through all that work to help improve the economy for Republicans hold the House in 2012. 

[Bo]

I doubt it. We will probably experience several years of malaise and high unemployment, but I doubt the economy would go into another recession soon. Maybe Obama manages to pass another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after November, so that should help with reducing unemployment.

There will not be another stimulus in the lame duck session.  Democrats in Congress hate Obama for putting them in a bad political position and will do nothing that may help him or Republicans in 2012.  Also, Republicans will likely have another Senator(Mike Castle who will be seated the day after the election) in the lame duck session.

I said maybe, which isn't a guarantee. Can Democrats use budget reconciliation in the Senate to pass another stimulus? If they can, they definitely might do it. I doubt that many Democrats will be that angry at Obama since Pelosi allowed many ConservaDems to vote against important pieces of Democratic legislation. Most of the realize that the main reason Democrats will do poorly in 2010 is due to the poor economy, rather than due to Obama's policies. And retiring/defeated Democrats will really have nothing to lose if they vote for another stimulus in the lame duck session of Congress after the 2010 midterms.

Budget reconcilation must be included in a budget, which Democrats skipped this year.  Democrats wouldnt have another change to pass reconciliation until 2011. 

Oh, in that case the chances of passing a stimulus go way down. Still, I wouldn't rule it out completely if the Democrats can convince two GOPers and all their own members not to filibuster the bill itself.

Well, you can probably rule out Ben Nelson voting for it and almost every Republican would probably object to passing something like this in a lame duck session.

They don't need to vote for it--just vote for cloture. Nelson would probably vote for cloture and maybe the Dems can convince two GOPers (maybe Snowe, Collins, Brown, or Castle) just to vote for cloture while voting against the bill itself.

Nelson wouldnt vote for cloture on a simple $26 billion bill to save teachers' jobs and it took everything in the world to get Snowe and Collins to vote for it.  What makes you think they would support a much bigger bill?

All of them supported the original stimulus bill, though. Convincing them just to vote for cloture (while voting against the bill itself) might not be that hard. Again, I'm not sure that a second stimulus will be passed, but it is a possibility.

Even if all of them still supported the stimulus in the lame duck period, there would only be 58 cloture votes in favor.  Plus the fact that the original stimulus passed when Obama was in his honeymoon period. 

By all of them, I meant all the Democrats + Snowe + Collins. All the Democrats + 2 other Republicans could also work. That will allow 60 votes for cloture.

I just don't think Democrats are going to go through all that work to help improve the economy for Republicans hold the House in 2012. 

What if the Dems keep the House in 2010? Also, even if Dems lose the House this year, they'd still want to help Obama get reelected.

[opebo]

It is premature to talk of a double dip when we are still in the first dip, and have no chance of getting out unless our economic and monetary policies change mightily.

What precisely do you propose as a change?

[Phony Moderate]

Maybe....along with the rest of the world.