Mr. Moderate's Gubernatorial Scorecard

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, as of August 12, 2010, here's my initial ratings for the gubernatorial races of 2010. I'll be updating this list periodically with more commentary when a race gets upgraded/downgraded.

Solid Democrat: HI, NH>, NY
Strong Democrat: AR, <CO, CT>, MN
Lean Democrat: CA>, MA>, MD>

Toss-up: <FL, OR, NM

Lean Republican: <ME, VT, MI>, PA, OH, IL, WI, GA, TX
Strong Republican: IA, TN>, NV
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, <SC, SD, UT, WY, ID

Lean Independent: <RI

Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 20D - 29R - 1I

[Edit on August 16: Added directional arrows.]

[Sam Spade]

Any particular reason why it's safe democrat and solid republican?

[Lunar]

That's because to someone of Mr. Moderate's age, something being "solid" is quite positive (i.e. "Reagan will make a solid President dude!").   

Basically, he exposes his bias as a Republican hack with this list.

I also agree with the list

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Any particular reason why it's safe democrat and solid republican?

Yes, a basic lack of consistency on my part.

[Eraserhead]

MI and PA are arguably "strong Republican" at this point. Does anyone know if there has been any polling of Vermont lately?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MI and PA are arguably "strong Republican" at this point. Does anyone know if there has been any polling of Vermont lately?

I can see the argument on Michigan, but I'd like to see a little distance between now and the primary to make that call. It's certainly one of a number of races that is trending in Republicans' favor.

With Pennsylvania, I don't think you can go and push the Republican candidate too much further than lean. He's got a decent lead, but it's not insurmountable. My gut says that race hasn't fully developed yet the way the one in Michigan has (e.g., Ed Rendell isn't despised).

[Mr. Morden]

Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 20D - 29R - 1I

29R 20D 1I is what happens if all three of your tossup races go to the Dems, right?

[Хahar 🤔]

Colors

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If MN is Strong Dem I don't really care about the rest. And I don't disagree.

And yeah, disgusting color scheme.

[Ronnie]

California should be tossup.  There is no indication that it is leaning in either direction.

[Kevin]

So, as of August 12, 2010, here's my initial ratings for the gubernatorial races of 2010. I'll be updating this list periodically with more commentary when a race gets upgraded/downgraded.

Solid Democrat: HI, NH, NY
Strong Democrat: AR, CO, CT, MN
Lean Democrat: CA, MA, MD

Toss-up: FL, OR, NM

Lean Republican: ME, VT, MI, PA, OH, IL, WI, GA, TX
Strong Republican: IA, TN, NV
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, SC, SD, UT, WY, ID

Lean Independent: RI

Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 20D - 29R - 1I

AR should be solid Democrat, CA and MD should both be tossups. CT and MN should be lean Democrat because I don't think the the races there have fully developed yet, the same for MA also.

In terms of the Republican groupings, OH, ME, GA, and VT should be tossups. While in the independent grouping RI should be considered a tossup also.

[Sam Spade]

Personally, I think...

1) AR is safer for Dems than NH.
2) CA and MD are tossup.
3) It is very hard for me to call ME and VT right now, I agree with you more on VT than ME, but I don't trust my expertise in New England that much.
4) I'd keep Ohio in toss-up (gut instinct and the polling isn't that clear).
5) I suspect MI and PA are lost causes for Dems, but Lean R is the correct call for now.
6) TN should be Solid Republican - Dems really have no chance there and they know it which is why they all dropped out.
7) OK should be Strong Republican.  Probably so should SC and AZ, but whatever...
RI polling sucks - be forewarned.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup: IL, WI, CA, RI, ME, OR, FL, NM, OH
Lean Dem: CO, MN, CT, HI, AR
LGOP: VT, GA,TX, MI, PA

Prediction 26-28 GOP Governors
22-24 Democratic Governors.

[Dan the Roman]

ME and MA are mirrors of each other. In MA you have an unpopular Governor(who has improved lately but still loses every 2-way hypothetical by at least five points) being challenged by a Republican who is running a quiet campaign and a much louder independent. While Patrick is consistently ahead, evidence indicates that this is a bit misleading. He has less money than either Cahill or Baker, and Baker is still unknown to a third of the state. Furthermore there is a lot of evidence that the undecideds are undecided between his opponents, not between them and himself. If this race breaks, it will break late, as all MA Gov races(and statewide races generally have) since 1990. At this point Romney was behind in 2002, or was after the primaries. That said the nature of the state means that even if he loses, Patrick will lead the polls until near the end.

In Maine you have a weak Democrat who is 73, is raising a limited amount of money, and is a largely unknown 20-year legislator. The Republican is a tea-party favorite who supports creationism, and has gotten nothing but bad press since the primary. And you have two self-funding independents, the more prominent of whom will likely outspend both major party candidates combined.

The nature of the year, namely the consolidation of the Conservative vote and the chaos everywhere else, ensures that LePage will lead the race for most of the summer and fall. But he has lost support in every poll, falling from 43 to 39 in Rassmussen between June and July, and I suspect he will be down at least to 36, if not below in this week's poll. Furthermore, the bad press is not off the he's crazy variety. More of the he's an asshole variety(making fun of his opponent's age, when called whining about racism towards Franco-Canadians, and retreating when called out on it).

Again though, he will lead for a while simply because he will be the only candidate in the thirties. That said, this race is not about Libby Mitchell or even Eliot Cutler. Its about LePage, and as a consequence, third-party candidates will fade towards the end as one of them consolidates support. It just has yet to be decided if the Democrat is a third-party challenger or not.

The position of the Senators is also of interest. LePage's Campaign Manager was well-known to be posting on Conservative sites that his boss' victory would pave the way to a primary challenge. Both would like to see him lose, privately at least. Collins' whose Chief of Staff lost the primary, made a pro forma endorsement but has declined to campaign for him or cut an ad. Snowe has remained completely silent on who she is supporting. Their behavior does carry weight with moderates, and their lack of support cost Woodcock dearly in 2006 under similar circumstances making it alright for Republican legislators to back independent Barbara Merrill. By the same token, their active support helped preserve a gay rights law in 2005, and their neutrality may well have doomed gay marriage in 2009.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I never put directional arrows in this one, so I did that just now. That's the direction I anticipate races moving in the current weeks/months.  Those moves may materialize or they may not, but it's a good way of distinguishing between a race like Colorado, where Democrats are heavily favored and Republicans are likely screwed and Connecticut, where Democrats are heavily favored but Republicans may be able to make headway through campaigning once people stop viewing the race with a generic R vs. D lens.

Personally, I think...

1) AR is safer for Dems than NH.
2) CA and MD are tossup.
3) It is very hard for me to call ME and VT right now, I agree with you more on VT than ME, but I don't trust my expertise in New England that much.
4) I'd keep Ohio in toss-up (gut instinct and the polling isn't that clear).
5) I suspect MI and PA are lost causes for Dems, but Lean R is the correct call for now.
6) TN should be Solid Republican - Dems really have no chance there and they know it which is why they all dropped out.
7) OK should be Strong Republican.  Probably so should SC and AZ, but whatever...
RI polling sucks - be forewarned.

There are a few points here that I suspect you could be right on, however:

• I can't put Maryland in toss-up because I genuinely do not believe Republicans will win it. I'm fairly confident in where I've put the state for now -- certainly far more so than my call of California.
• Michigan is developing into a lost cause. It's certainly on a different level than Pennsylvania, where I think the Democrat is capable of making up ground (and further, I presume there's less ground to be made up).

[SPC]

Why is Charlie Crist counted as a Republican?

[Lunar]

Is this still accurate?

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2010-04-30/news/os-crist-independent-20100429_1_democratic-strategist-steve-schale-charlie-crist-independent-voters

After the announcement, Crist said he even planned to register as a non-party-affiliated voter. But a news release from his campaign said that, although he planned to run for the Senate as an independent, he would remain a registered Republican.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We've had some activity since I posted this two weeks ago, so I figured now would be a good time to update.

Changed to favor Republicans: HI (arrow added), California (moved to toss-up), Michigan (moved to strong Republican), Pennsylvania (arrow added).

Changed to favor Democrats: FL (from GOP toss-up to Dem toss-up), RI (from Lean Ind to Dem toss-up), PA (arrow removed), GA (arrow added), ID (arrow added).

Solid Democrat: HI>, NH>, NY
Strong Democrat: AR, <CO, CT>, MN
Lean Democrat: MA>, MD>

Toss-up: <FL, OR, NM, CA, RI

Lean Republican: <ME, VT, PA, OH, IL, WI, <GA, TX
Strong Republican: MI, IA, TN>, NV
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, <SC, SD, UT, WY, <ID


Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 22D - 28R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sadley CA is now as republican as Illinois, Whittman leads by 8 in the latest Rasmussen poll. Brown was a recycled candidate and should not have run.

[??????????]

Is this still accurate?

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2010-04-30/news/os-crist-independent-20100429_1_democratic-strategist-steve-schale-charlie-crist-independent-voters

After the announcement, Crist said he even planned to register as a non-party-affiliated voter. But a news release from his campaign said that, although he planned to run for the Senate as an independent, he would remain a registered Republican.

The local media said he couldn't vote on Tuesday. So I am to assume he is registered NPA.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I left Crist as a Republican just because that's what he was elected as.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why is there a red arrow for Maryland?

[Eraserhead]

Sadley CA is now as republican as Illinois, Whittman leads by 8 in the latest Rasmussen poll. Brown was a recycled candidate and should not have run.

Stop. Posting.

[Oakvale]

Sadley CA is now as republican as Illinois, Whittman leads by 8 in the latest Rasmussen poll. Brown was a recycled candidate and should not have run.

Stop. Posting.

[Barnes]

Just out of interest, why do you have GA as moving towards to the Dems?