reagan84
Rookie
Posts: 66
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« on: November 07, 2010, 08:54:30 PM » |
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Buchanan claims that he was a greater spoiler than Nadar on a state by state basis. Let's take a look at that claim. The following question was posed:
If Nadar had not been on the ballot, how would you vote?
50% - Gore
30%- Bush
20%- stay home.
As for Buchanan voters, 80-90% would have backed Bush while most of the rest would have stayed home. Almost none would have supported Gore.
Buchanan likely cost Bush a win in Iowa and Wisconsin (18 EV). By that I mean Bush wins in a Bush/Gore/Nadar 3 way vote. New Mexico (5 EV) was also decided by a razor thin margin. Buchanan was not on the ballot but Harry Browne was. If Florida flips to Gore and the other 3 states flipped to Bush, I believe it would have been a 269-269 tie. If Nadar was the only 3rd party candidate, that could very well have happened.
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