I've NEVER seen something like this!!!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Summer polls usually lean more favorable to Democrats than the actual November results, so, the results from the series of surveys to be found at RealClearPolitics is astonishing.  I have never seen such results for summer polls!

RCP Average 7/13 - 8/1 -- 46.5 40.5 Republicans +6.0

Gallup                            7/26 - 8/01 1562 RV 48 43 Republicans +   5
Rasmussen Reports      7/26 - 8/01 3500 LV  46 38 Republicans +   8
FOX News                     7/27 - 7/28   900 RV  47 36 Republicans + 11
Reuters/Ipsos              7/22 - 7/25    848 RV 46 44 Republicans  +  2
CNN/Opinion Research 7/16 - 7/21    945 RV 49 44 Republicans  +  5
Quinnipiac                    7/13 - 7/19  2181 RV 43 38 Republicans  +  5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

[Brittain33]

Summer polls usually lean more favorable to Democrats than the actual November results

Nope. Certainly not in 2000...

[Holmes]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

[SvenssonRS]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

That was because Corzine was a heinously terrible governor and would have rightfully lost even in a Democratic year.

[Holmes]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

That was because Corzine was a heinously terrible governor and would have rightfully lost even in a Democratic year.

Well, yeah, but the fact is he still lost by <4%. The polls were closer in summer in Virginia than the final result, but in NY-23, the earliest polls I were able to find showed Dede as the front runner (though only in the mid 30's).

[Mr.Phips]

Summer polls usually lean more favorable to Democrats than the actual November results

Nope. Certainly not in 2000...

Not in 1998 either.  At this time in 1998, people were talking about the possibility of a 30 seat House gain and a filibuster proof Senate majority for Republicans. 

[Dgov]

Most of the examples given above were before significant events in the race.  McDonnell slipped a bit after the WaPo articles, but regained his lead later on.  Late Summer 2008 polls were actually generally more Republican because they came out before the Fiscal crash.  Christie had a bigger lead in the summer because he was riding anti-incumbent fever and the undecideds broke to Corzine later on due to NJ's political gravity.

What is generally considered to be a natural bias in polling is that Republicans usually outdo Registered voter polls by about 4 points (according to Nate Silver anyway), so the fact that Gallup has the Republicans up 5 (6 this week) in an RV poll suggests that Republicans are looking at a huge advantage, probably their best ever.  They won the popular vote in 94 by only about 3.8% after all.

[Meeker]

I seem to recall McCain polling much better in the summer than in the fall. Certainly in August.

[Beet]

There's only one thing to say:

Ah Jeez.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama's moderate heroism is working out real well.

[Beet]

This is all just 11 dimensional chess by Larry Summers and Rahm Emanuel, jfern. By November Obama's popularity will be back up to 65%. Summers and Emanuel are geniuses. They've got this.

[Torie]

I seem to recall McCain polling much better in the summer than in the fall. Certainly in August.

As noted above, Lehman, and the aftermath, including how McCain handled it, was what finished him. So yes, if some event occurs, with the same kind of aftermath as Lehman, with the GOP on the shot end of the stick, in the next 3 months, then the numbers could change considerably.  But the odds of that happening, seem to me to be getting really low.

[Dgov]

This is all just 11 dimensional chess by Larry Summers and Rahm Emanuel, jfern. By November Obama's popularity will be back up to 65%. Summers and Emanuel are geniuses. They've got this.

If Tomorrow Obama announced that he was really a superhero in disguise and singlehandedly fought off an invading Alien armada, maybe.  Obama's unpopularity is not some flickering trend that will ease with time, it represents broad disapproval with the way he has handled governing the country.

Though your comment about Larry Summers and Rahm Emanuel playing 11-dimensional chess might be true.  It's been stipulated that Obama is deliberately trying to lose the House to increase his re-election chances in 2012 (a la Clinton).

[Хahar 🤔]

If Tomorrow Obama announced that he was really a superhero in disguise and singlehandedly fought off an invading Alien armada, maybe.  Obama's unpopularity is not some flickering trend that will ease with time, it represents broad disapproval with the way he has handled governing the country.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

New Jersey was a rather specific case where there was a marked reason for the polling shift (i.e., movement in independent leaning females due to the issue of mammogram screening).

[Holmes]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

New Jersey was a rather specific case where there was a marked reason for the polling shift (i.e., movement in independent leaning females due to the issue of mammogram screening).

So you're saying people's opinions of candidates is based on their position on the issues, and not what season it is? That's pretty inconceivable.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

New Jersey was a rather specific case where there was a marked reason for the polling shift (i.e., movement in independent leaning females due to the issue of mammogram screening).

So you're saying people's opinions of candidates is based on their position on the issues, and not what season it is? That's pretty inconceivable.

I'd have thought that obvious, but a whole bunch of people here seem to be arguing otherwise!

[Holmes]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

New Jersey was a rather specific case where there was a marked reason for the polling shift (i.e., movement in independent leaning females due to the issue of mammogram screening).

So you're saying people's opinions of candidates is based on their position on the issues, and not what season it is? That's pretty inconceivable.

I'd have thought that obvious, but a whole bunch of people here seem to be arguing otherwise!

What's the logic anyway? Republicans love to go out in the summer while Democrats enjoy staying inside and answering 40 question polls on the phone?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Last summer's polls were pretty anti-Democratic compared to the November results, fwiw. I remember Christie always having double digit leads.

New Jersey was a rather specific case where there was a marked reason for the polling shift (i.e., movement in independent leaning females due to the issue of mammogram screening).

So you're saying people's opinions of candidates is based on their position on the issues, and not what season it is? That's pretty inconceivable.

I'd have thought that obvious, but a whole bunch of people here seem to be arguing otherwise!

What's the logic anyway? Republicans love to go out in the summer while Democrats enjoy staying inside and answering 40 question polls on the phone?

Maybe because Democrats force eco-friendly air conditioning solutions on the populace, such as ineffective ceiling fans and advice to "just open a window, there's a nice breeze out." The bastards.

[Mr.Phips]

I seem to recall McCain polling much better in the summer than in the fall. Certainly in August.

As noted above, Lehman, and the aftermath, including how McCain handled it, was what finished him. So yes, if some event occurs, with the same kind of aftermath as Lehman, with the GOP on the shot end of the stick, in the next 3 months, then the numbers could change considerably.  But the odds of that happening, seem to me to be getting really low.

McCain would have likely lost even without the financial crash.  If you remember, the economy was already quite bad and getting worse.  The incumbent party has never held the White House when the unemployment rate rose in that election year. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update.

The following are all the 'generic ballot' polls available at Pollster to be completely taken in August of this year.

Pollster (formerly) Mystery Pollster is run by a self-described 'progressive' Democrat, and owned by a 'progressive' online media site.

The results of the six polls are interesting:

Pollster         Dates   N/Pop   Republican   Democrat   Other/Neither   Undecided           Margin  
FOX           8/10-11  900 RV        44               37                                       15                        +7R  
Zogby         8/9-11   2067 LV      42              41                3                      13                        +1R  
CNN            8/6-10   935 RV        48              45                7                        1                        +3R  
PPP (D)      8/6-10   606 RV         45              42                -                       14                        +3R  
Gallup          8/2-8   1600 RV       49              43                -                        -                          +6R  
Rasmussen  8/2-8   3500 LV       46              39                -                        -                          +7R  

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-05-house-genballot.php

[Dan the Roman]

This is all just 11 dimensional chess by Larry Summers and Rahm Emanuel, jfern. By November Obama's popularity will be back up to 65%. Summers and Emanuel are geniuses. They've got this.

If Tomorrow Obama announced that he was really a superhero in disguise and singlehandedly fought off an invading Alien armada, maybe.  Obama's unpopularity is not some flickering trend that will ease with time, it represents broad disapproval with the way he has handled governing the country.

Though your comment about Larry Summers and Rahm Emanuel playing 11-dimensional chess might be true.  It's been stipulated that Obama is deliberately trying to lose the House to increase his re-election chances in 2012 (a la Clinton).

Hence his Mosque dance?

[CARLHAYDEN]

An update from RealClearPolitics: 6.4% R!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

[Torie]

I think the wave is here. Whether it holds or not is an open issue, but the latest Dem idea per demands of the unions is to do a bailout this fall of some private company unionized pension plans, that are on the rocks, at untold tens of billions of cost down the road. That was in the WSJ today. Swing voters in this fiscal environment I don't think will be happy about that. It is as if the idea is to feed the Dem base as much as possible before the window shuts.

Which is why I want to get rid of the filibuster. There needs to be a more facile way to get rid of bad legislation, and for the party in power to be held more accountable. I really like the British system a lot more than ours. Maybe we need a Constitutional convention for a total revamp. I am serious.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think the wave is here. Whether it holds or not is an open issue, but the latest Dem idea per demands of the unions is to do a bailout this fall of some private company unionized pension plans, that are on the rocks, at untold tens of billions of cost down the road. That was in the WSJ today. Swing voters in this fiscal environment I don't think will be happy about that. It is as if the idea is to feed the Dem base as much as possible before the window shuts.

Which is why I want to get rid of the filibuster. There needs to be a more facile way to get rid of bad legislation, and for the party in power to be held more accountable. I really like the British system a lot more than ours. Maybe we need a Constitutional convention for a total revamp. I am serious.

Your point about unionized pension plans is an excellent example of what is going on with the Democrats.

Some have suggested that some Democrats believe that if they pass out enough largess to their core constituencies now, they will be able to hang onto control of Congress.

Others have suggested that many Democrats believe that now is their once in a lifetime chance to implement a left-wing agenda.

I suspect that they will shy away from doing much before the election, but what the lame duck Congress may do is very scary!

What I find significant is that I cannot remember any time in the history of survey research in the United States that Republicans had a signficant lead in most summer polls on the generic congressional vote.

Now, looking closely at the polls, it is NOT so much a pro-Republican tide (in my analysis) as it is a popular revulsion to both the style and substance of Democrat party policy.  If Republicans do seize control of Congress and go back to 'business as usual,' I suspect the public will turn on them with a vengenace.