Scott Brown's chances in 2012

[Mr.Phips]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice.  

Call me a skeptic for thinking the swing voters in MA aren't going to know who Boehner is, let alone which party even controls the lower chamber, in which Scott Brown isn't even a member?

Boehner will probably be the most powerful man in Washington if he is the Speaker.  Are you saying that swing voters dont know who Pelosi is?

Read: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19630.html

Read: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/whos-afraid-of-nancy-pelosi.html

Pelosi is not from the oppositional party.  If Boehner is Speaker, Obama will work to wrap him around Republican's neck just like Clinton did to Gingrich.  You think in the major budget shutdown fights, Boehner's name is not going to be on the front pages of every paper. 

Pelosi played nice with Bush and that is why she was not a good target.  If Boehner tries to repeal healthcare and cut the budget, his name will be known by 80% of the public.

[sg0508]

I'd say he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. His approvals being high is a good electoral sign, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 2006 despite having high approval ratings. Thus, if Obama does really well in MA in 2012 (winning 60+% of the vote there), then I could see a strong Democrat like Capuano defeating Brown.

Chafee's approvals weren't that hot if I recall, they were around 53-45% approve at the time he was defeated if a little lower.

Chafee was between 60-65% at the time of his defeat.  It was just that bad of a year.  Plus, he faced a tough primary, which killed a lot of his republican support, which he needed, despite the heavy democratic tilt of RI.  Republicans didn't turn out for him.

[Lunar]

Dude, 80%?

[sg0508]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice. 

William Weld probably would have beaten John Kerry in 1996 had Republicans not taken the House in 1994.

Weld fell victim to Kerry's ability to debate.  He had him on the ropes until the debates and that's when the tide turned in that race.

[Mr.Phips]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice. 

William Weld probably would have beaten John Kerry in 1996 had Republicans not taken the House in 1994.

Weld fell victim to Kerry's ability to debate.  He had him on the ropes until the debates and that's when the tide turned in that race.

And guess who Kerry kept tying Weld to in that race?  None other than Newt Gingrich.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Maybe trying to predict a race more than two years out isn't the best idea.

[Mjh]

He has no chance after that disastrous vote against Kagan.  MA will never forgive him for that.

I don't think Average Joe Voter will care about Scott Brown vote against Kagan, two years after the nomination.
Most peope aren't that interested in politics.

I believe he was being sarcastic.

Okay. Not always easy to know on this forum.

[Brittain33]

Maybe trying to predict a race more than two years out isn't the best idea.

[Mjh]

Somehow the Maine sisters survived Boehner, and indeed, even DeLay. I have to join Lunar "the hack" on this one.  Oh wait, here Lunar is giving sustenance to a Pubbie. I am just so confused now.

The Maine sisters are moderate to liberal Republicans that vote with the other party on most issues.  Scott Brown has been a down the line conservative in a state even more Democratic than Maine.

A down the line Conservative who voted for Obamas Financial Reform Bill and the Democrats 15 billion jobs bill?
I'll agree that he is more conservative than Snowe and Collins, but he certainly isn't Jim Inhofe or Jim DeMint either.

[Lunar]

Maybe trying to predict a race more than two years out isn't the best idea.

Coward!

[BillyW]

I think he has a shot but running in a presidential year will make it a little tougher. He seems to have a pretty good instinct for how he has to vote to stay in office. But as others have said it is two years  out and thats an eternity

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Even Bill Weld couldn't win in a presidential year with a full Democratic turnout. And remember, Weld was re-elected in 1994 with about 70%

Brown won his seat in a less-profile special race, not in November, due to special circumstances. He's therefore DOA in 2012.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Even Bill Weld couldn't win in a presidential year with a full Democratic turnout. And remember, Weld was re-elected in 1994 with about 70%

Brown won his seat in a less-profile special race, not in November, due to special circumstances. He's therefore DOA in 2012.

Weld wasn't the incumbent; Brown will be.

More people voted for Scott Brown (1.17 million) than Bill Weld (1.14 million), and this despite it being a "less-profile" special race.

Therefore, I think you're full of crap. Cheers. 

[tpfkaw]

Unless he shapes up and starts voting more like a New England RINO,

He is voting like a New England RINO.

I'd give him a 55% chance of being reelected if his opponent is someone like Capuano, and 40% if his opponent is a Kennedy.

An interesting question, I think, is whether the Tea Party types attempt to mount a primary challenge to him.

Given the Kennedys available, it would probably be wiser to reverse the numbers.

I don't know. They'll probably nominate Vicki.

Am I amazing, or am I completely amazing?

[nclib]

Vicky Kennedy would be a good candidate and Senator, and I wouldn't mind her running, but it's disappointing that the Mass DP thinks other candidates wouldn't be likely to do well. Brown may be moderate by national GOP standards (which says more about the latter than the former), but he's definitely to the right of most recent New England Republicans--Snowe, Collins, Shays, N. Johnson, Chafee--except for New Hampshire, and even then, has had their GOP moderate (Sununu replaced Bob Smith, Jeb Bradley replaced Sununu, Gregg has voted more moderate recently).

[Kevin]

Vicky Kennedy would be a good candidate and Senator, and I wouldn't mind her running, but it's disappointing that the Mass DP thinks other candidates wouldn't be likely to do well. Brown may be moderate by national GOP standards (which says more about the latter than the former), but he's definitely to the right of most recent New England Republicans--Snowe, Collins, Shays, N. Johnson, Chafee--except for New Hampshire, and even then, has had their GOP moderate (Sununu replaced Bob Smith, Jeb Bradley replaced Sununu, Gregg has voted more moderate recently).

Of course if what you say is correct in your feelings then there is the possibility that Brown could be helped out by a hard fought Democratic primary.

[miro]

A Tea Party challenger wouldn't surprise me.
As someone who interacts with a lot of the very hyper-charged conservative supporters who were expecting Scott Brown to do things he was never going to do in the first place, you would (or wouldn't I suppose) be surprised how many people who voted for him feel like he betrayed them.

Hell, I've even seen groups and individuals who supported him start to organize protests and counter-rallies against him,

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Jones 2020 will be like Brown 2012, he does way better than the average Dem but loses

[Vega]

I think Jones 2020 will be like Brown 2012, he does way better than the average Dem but loses

It should be a bannable offense to bump 8 year old threads.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Jones 2020 will be like Brown 2012, he does way better than the average Dem but loses

It should be a bannable offense to bump 8 year old threads.

lol

[Thatkat04]

I think Jones 2020 will be like Brown 2012, he does way better than the average Dem but loses

It should be a bannable offense to bump 8 year old threads.

lol

Most forums do have a policy about necro'ing threads.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Jones 2020 will be like Brown 2012, he does way better than the average Dem but loses

It should be a bannable offense to bump 8 year old threads.

lol

Most forums do have a policy about necro'ing threads.

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