Scott Brown's chances in 2012

[sg0508]

He's gaining the reputation of the moderate type that "gets it".  His approval rating in less than one year is pretty good, but let's not forget how strongly democratic MA is. 

In a presidential year, the turnout will be far higher than what he saw last year and Senatorial races are usually drawn to party lines.  What do you see being his shot for a full-term in the most democratic state in the union (if not RI) in 2012? 

[Bo]

I'd say he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. His approvals being high is a good electoral sign, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 2006 despite having high approval ratings. Thus, if Obama does really well in MA in 2012 (winning 60+% of the vote there), then I could see a strong Democrat like Capuano defeating Brown.

[sg0508]

I'd say he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. His approvals being high is a good electoral sign, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 2006 despite having high approval ratings. Thus, if Obama does really well in MA in 2012 (winning 60+% of the vote there), then I could see a strong Democrat like Capuano defeating Brown.
[/quoteChafee also fell victim to a very strong democratic year.  Whitehouse also ran a very strong grassroots campaign.  In a republican year, Chafee probably would have won a tight one (lost by 6.5 pts). 

Obama will likely get around 62%.  The big question will be, what kind of campaign would a democrat run against Brown?  He's not the type that you can attack as being too far to the right.

[Lunar]

He has no chance after that disastrous vote against Kagan.  MA will never forgive him for that.

[Frodo]

Unless he shapes up and starts voting more like a New England RINO, he will be replaced by a Democrat in 2012.  He is only doing well now because it is an anti-incumbent year with a weak economy and a (thus far) jobless recovery -he shouldn't expect it to remain like this by the time he is up for re-election.  

[tpfkaw]

Unless he shapes up and starts voting more like a New England RINO,

He is voting like a New England RINO.

I'd give him a 55% chance of being reelected if his opponent is someone like Capuano, and 40% if his opponent is a Kennedy.

An interesting question, I think, is whether the Tea Party types attempt to mount a primary challenge to him.

[Bo]

I'd say he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. His approvals being high is a good electoral sign, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 2006 despite having high approval ratings. Thus, if Obama does really well in MA in 2012 (winning 60+% of the vote there), then I could see a strong Democrat like Capuano defeating Brown.

Chafee also fell victim to a very strong democratic year.  Whitehouse also ran a very strong grassroots campaign.  In a republican year, Chafee probably would have won a tight one (lost by 6.5 pts). 

Obama will likely get around 62%.  The big question will be, what kind of campaign would a democrat run against Brown?  He's not the type that you can attack as being too far to the right.

I think 2012 will be a Democratic year just like 2006 was, though. The Dems could attack Brown for opposing extending unemployment benefits (with unemployment at nearly 10%), for being against gay rights (DADT), and for opposing a tax on big banks, among other things. And I think Capuano has the ability to wage a good grassroots campaign just like Whitehouse did in RI. I think many Dems would be eager to nominate Capuano since he was the runner up in 2010 and most Democrats regret nominating Coakley.

[Dan the Roman]

Unless he shapes up and starts voting more like a New England RINO,

He is voting like a New England RINO.

I'd give him a 55% chance of being reelected if his opponent is someone like Capuano, and 40% if his opponent is a Kennedy.

An interesting question, I think, is whether the Tea Party types attempt to mount a primary challenge to him.

Given the Kennedys available, it would probably be wiser to reverse the numbers.

[Mjh]

He has no chance after that disastrous vote against Kagan.  MA will never forgive him for that.

I don't think Average Joe Voter will care about Scott Brown vote against Kagan, two years after the nomination.
Most peope aren't that interested in politics.

[tpfkaw]

He has no chance after that disastrous vote against Kagan.  MA will never forgive him for that.

I don't think Average Joe Voter will care about Scott Brown vote against Kagan, two years after the nomination.
Most peope aren't that interested in politics.

I believe he was being sarcastic.

Unless he shapes up and starts voting more like a New England RINO,

He is voting like a New England RINO.

I'd give him a 55% chance of being reelected if his opponent is someone like Capuano, and 40% if his opponent is a Kennedy.

An interesting question, I think, is whether the Tea Party types attempt to mount a primary challenge to him.

Given the Kennedys available, it would probably be wiser to reverse the numbers.

I don't know. They'll probably nominate Vicki.

[sg0508]

The bottom line is, Brown has to prove that he is NOT a new-age republican.  If he can do that, he's got a good chance. 

[SvenssonRS]

70% approval rating with politics that the people of MA can easily get used to. The man's going to be reelected.

[Brittain33]

70% approval rating with politics that the people of MA can easily get used to. The man's going to be reelected.

What were Obama's approval ratings seven months after his election?

[xavier110]

He has okay chances. It depends on who the Democrats field.

[SvenssonRS]

70% approval rating with politics that the people of MA can easily get used to. The man's going to be reelected.

What were Obama's approval ratings seven months after his election?

Starting to decline, if I recall. That would have been about May-June.

[Kevin]

I'd say he has about a 50% chance of being reelected. His approvals being high is a good electoral sign, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 2006 despite having high approval ratings. Thus, if Obama does really well in MA in 2012 (winning 60+% of the vote there), then I could see a strong Democrat like Capuano defeating Brown.

Chafee's approvals weren't that hot if I recall, they were around 53-45% approve at the time he was defeated if a little lower.

[Mr.Phips]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice. 

William Weld probably would have beaten John Kerry in 1996 had Republicans not taken the House in 1994.

[Lunar]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice. 

Call me a skeptic for thinking the swing voters in MA aren't going to know who Boehner is, let alone which party even controls the lower chamber, in which Scott Brown isn't even a member?

[Torie]

Somehow the Maine sisters survived Boehner, and indeed, even DeLay. I have to join Lunar "the hack" on this one.  Oh wait, here Lunar is giving sustenance to a Pubbie. I am just so confused now.

[timmer123]

He has no chance after that disastrous vote against Kagan.  MA will never forgive him for that.

Dude, in Nov 2012 no one is going to care about that.
After all, this is the guy who, in MASSACHUSETTS, campaigned against a Democrat presidents hallmark domestic policy and won.


Scott Brown has a good chance of getting re-elected, even in a presidential year.  He's very popular and personable.

[Lunar]

No way.  Trust me, the Kagan thing is like a guaranteed 10-20+% swing for whoever the Democrats nominate (hopefully Martha Coakley, she'll do better next time with the Kagan thing, I just know it)

[Mr.Phips]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice. 

Call me a skeptic for thinking the swing voters in MA aren't going to know who Boehner is, let alone which party even controls the lower chamber, in which Scott Brown isn't even a member?

Boehner will probably be the most powerful man in Washington if he is the Speaker.  Are you saying that swing voters dont know who Pelosi is?

[Mr.Phips]

Somehow the Maine sisters survived Boehner, and indeed, even DeLay. I have to join Lunar "the hack" on this one.  Oh wait, here Lunar is giving sustenance to a Pubbie. I am just so confused now.

The Maine sisters are moderate to liberal Republicans that vote with the other party on most issues.  Scott Brown has been a down the line conservative in a state even more Democratic than Maine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course they don't, well, not most of them, not really. People active in politics (including those who follow it as a sport, like us) tend to assume that ordinary people are better informed (and significantly less intelligent) than they actually are.

[Lunar]

It depends on whether Republicans win the House or not.  If Brown is tied with highly unpopular Speaker Boehner in existance, he is probably toast.  If Democrats hold the House, Brown has a good shot at casting himself as an independent voice.  

Call me a skeptic for thinking the swing voters in MA aren't going to know who Boehner is, let alone which party even controls the lower chamber, in which Scott Brown isn't even a member?

Boehner will probably be the most powerful man in Washington if he is the Speaker.  Are you saying that swing voters dont know who Pelosi is?

Read: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19630.html

Read: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/whos-afraid-of-nancy-pelosi.html