Pakistan flooding disaster

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably ought to have its own thread. In part because of the... interesting... reaction of the country's astonishingly popular President.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, I was thinking about making a thread for a while about that, with a focus on Mr 10%, yeah.

That guys really embodies how the political power is more and more cut of civil society. Beside his fame in corruption, it was astonishing how he has been able to be a failure here.

The country faces one of the worst catastrophe of its history and the guy hasn't the slightest word for his country while he has rather informal meetings in Europe, spending several days there out of political goals, in 5 stars hostel, and, top of that, communicating to Pakistani about that saying 'oh, but that are only the cheapest 5 stars hostels there'.

Really, massive fail there.

But, the most interesting part in what's happening in Pakistan with that, it's as always when there is a big natural disaster there, the fact that Islamist NGOs, which are just the humanitarian branches of political Islamic organization or worse of terrorist organizations, easily take over and are the 1st to give help to population, while the government forces are absent in the eyes of the population. Yeah, Pakistan has this huge modern army, but too bad they focus on striking on a bunch of guys in their mountains, while millions of Pakistani would need them.

Pakistani trends continue then, governmental forces are discredited, military is used in a counter-productive way, and Islamists occupy the ground...

Oh, and, by the way, US often go with 'we give a lot of money there!', well, yeah boys, but instead of letting Pakistan putting this money in stupid counter-productive wars in the mountains, cases like these Pakistani floods would be an huge occasion to rehabilitate your image there, and to well use this money you're so keen to give to Pakistan, and how much did US gave for those massive floods? $10 millions. Wow.

It's like if people followed a book that would tell them all what is wrong to do there, that's kinda amazing...

Luckily the huge majority of Pakistani have a rather wise tradition of Islam, and are not keen on extreme political Islam, you could really begin to worry otherwise, but...

[patrick1]

Bunwoah, you make several valid points, however, what makes you think that American flood aid would be better spent than our military and developmental project money?  This aid would also have a good chance of winding up in the corrupt elites hands or funding insurgents.

You are quite correct that the hard liners have stepped in to fill in for the gov't.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/07/world/asia/07pstan.html?ref=world

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bunwoah, you make several valid points, however, what makes you think that American flood aid would be better spent than our military and developmental project money?  This aid would also have a good chance of winding up in the corrupt elites hands or funding insurgents.

Well, first, and that's a point about the money for help in general there, the money is in your hands, it's not like if they were racketing you. You have the money, they want it. Then, each time you give some money there you could impose a control on it, with people from USA closely supervising the use of it, and ensuring it doesn't flee in corrupt hands, in stupid military programs that so far have create more problems than solutions, or in Pakistani secret services that would fund some insurgents terrorist groups here or there. You have the money, then impose your conditions to give it, and when you give it please don't screw it by focusing on the military, that's far to be the most important to rule problems in Pakistan. What will help Pakistani not to listen to extreme speeches it is a well managed development, then impose your conditions in this sense.

That is for help in general there, but in the case of floods, yeah, you don't have the time to create a good system of management, though it could be a starter for it, but the most important to me would be the concrete immediate aid. It's just that these 10 millions (well, the last figure I heard yesterday was 35 millions, but still) for Pakistan in massive need of help compared to billions stupidly flooded into Pakistan in counter-productive ways, I couldn't help but make the comparison.

You have that huge mega military. You have Pakistan in great need of concrete help such as only a military can do. You have the Pakistani military failing, maybe in part because they keep focusing on their fronts in NWF and Cashmere. You are interested in this country not going to extremist political ways in the future. Then go!

Yeah, if you're interested in really helping and in results there, then it's a very good occasion to show and do it by deploying the most you can concretely do there. You go there, you give the most of concrete help, and then you leave, that is what a true help is. So that, Pakistani couldn't only say that only their 'Muslim bros' (with other kind of political agendas) came to help them there. I know there already is some concrete US help there, I really hope you do the max, if you don't you miss a really good occasion to actually help there and to create a good relationship with people from this country.

[patrick1]

The problem with the imposition of these proposed conditions is that Pakistan has the US in a precarious position and Pakistan knows it.   We need their help to try to contain, kill or capture the Al Qaeda elements  and deny them sanctuary to plan further attacks against the US.  As you know, we also need them to combat the Taliban for a valid exit strategy from Afghanistan.  Pakistan has done a half a$$ed job on both fronts, aided our enemies and are just waiting for the US to get fed up and leave the region.  At the same time,  If we pull aid from these corrupt bastards in government, we risk empowering  the Taliban and fellow travelers who would potentially gain control of even larger areas of Pakistan.  The US has not had many good options.   We must focus much of this aid on the military because you have to be alive to implement any development programs.  Building schools and hospitals is a nice warm and fuzzy gesture.  However,  when the teachers and doctors manning these places are later beheaded as collaborators, it really defeats the purpose.

I really think you are talking up the impact of aid too much.  We aren't going to win the extremist elements hearts and minds by any of this.    How long did the lovefest after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake last?  The US spent well over 200 million USD, rescued thousands and it had little lasting impact on how we are viewed.  Don't get me wrong-  the disaster aid and rescue are the right thing to do and I am very proud of our soldiers who have already rescued thousands. However, it is only a matter of time before the extremist propaganda machine is spreading lies about how the CIA are poisoning the food packets. 

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We must focus much of this aid on the military because you have to be alive to implement any development programs.  Building schools and hospitals is a nice warm and fuzzy gesture.  However,  when the teachers and doctors manning these places are later beheaded as collaborators, it really defeats the purpose.

That's one of my points, actually, the army should be developed and aimed at protecting the advance of the development, and period, stop wasting time at bombing mountains and killing as much guys lost in the mountains as civilians. That is what has precisely made terrorism grown into the Pakistani plains in which lives the huge majority of Pakistan, with Pakistani that have different mindsets and traditions that those from the mountains, in short Pashtuns.

But, the big focus has been put on a massive war against that guys in the mountains who only control a tiny part of the population only on a tiny part of the Pakistani territory, which in retaliation developed heavy terrorism in the plains, an heavy terrorism which makes Pakistani more and more distrustful of their govt for that matter, and which make them more easily listening to Islamic parties of opposition, and to far lesser extents to other Islamic terrorist organizations. Moreover, as I posted in the 'Pakistan General Discussion' thread, it can lead to ethnic violence because of the Pashtun immigration that resulted from these massive attacks in mountains.

So, military for defense of the development for the biggest part, and period. And stop to make this military becoming huge and over-powerful and enjoying counter-productive useless wars with all that money you give them.

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You have to focus on intelligence for that, leading war actions are useless, that are not these bunch of guys who learn karate and how to use an AK-47 in camps hidden in moutains who will make plots to threaten USA, the big plots to threaten other countries would certainly be prepared in neat quiet places which wouldn't be disturbed by war actions, and not into a 'wasp nest' as we say in French. Really, what I wrote precedingly in this post and about the war in Afghanistan thread would make the point.

'War against terror' is #1 useless #2 counter-productive. Local and global intelligence are the points for countering such a terrorist 'organization'.

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No, you don't need them at all for this, the only strategy for Afghanistan imo would be the same than for Pakistani regions with problems, development and protection of this development as well, I already wrote about it in the thread about Afghanistan as well. Stopping to bomb stones in mountains and to kill civilians, you achieve nothing, bloody hell, you just make the opposite of what is targeted this way. This is the not easy way.

The other way is 'bye bye'. And you follow the Iraqi scheme there, you retire step by step, and if it goes to Talibans again, then what? Terrorists don't need Afghanistan to survive, they were there because it was cool during a time, now they can do without it, they are all over Sahel for example, and one more time that is not by bombing the camps that you will prevent big foreign attempts. Sorry to remind it but last terror attacks, and attempts, in USA have been practiced by US guys/girls, from their own. That kind of terrorism is based on a feeling and an idea first, the 1st thing you have to do is not to uselessly feed this feeling of hatred by the war you lead, and 2nd to focus on intelligence, about communication and logistics.

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If your tactic is to focus on war actions there, then you might have understood that according to me you better leave, yes.

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As I said, no, this tactic of war is extending terrorism and Islamic political extremism to larger areas, that's how it happens, and, you have the money in your hands, you're not the victim here, you can submit this money to a control, first a flex one to show a bit of trust eventually, and if it fails then a tough one.

That are your options, giving money for development and protection of this development, not letting stomachs being filled by 'Muslim bros'. Or, just getting the f**k out of there, of this whole region, so that people will stop to suspect you.

That is not totally random if so much suspicion came upon you, it's not like if the US govts didn't give proofs they could enjoy to play with Islamic terrorists during the last 30 years, especially in the region, and well, this happened to their doors, maybe you have less distanc eon the question when the problems knock your door.

You have nothing to gain by staying there, the only thing you can get is suspicion and hatred, especially if you lead operations on your own there (drones) for the latter. Major part of Pakistani don't care about USA in the 1st place, and are far to be fundamentalist in their traditions, the stuff there, the big stuff, that's India, you're officially an ally of India so it doesn't help, but if you wanna help Pakistan, then show that you don't wanna take part in the Pakistan/India conflict and just show you wanna help there, and try to do it a bit more accurately than what happened so far, since the results haven't been great anyhow.

If you're concerned by Pakistan help and stop, or drastically reduce, war operations. Or just get the f**k out of this whole region.

I really think you are talking up the impact of aid too much.  We aren't going to win the extremist elements hearts and minds by any of this.

You wanna help? Then help, and don't ask something in return, just give, that's true help.



(oh damn, I made a long post )

[patrick1]

Bunwoah, thank you for the very detailed and thoughtful post. I agree with much of what you have said with a few small areas of disagreement. 

As a quick point, which I think you would agree on- the Pakistani government shares a huge burden for the breakdown of the security situation.  For decades, Pakistan pretended these tribal areas did not exist and ignored the poverty in these regions. They were left to their own devices and squalor.  When the United States forced out the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda elements into Pakistan in 2001-2002, the PAK government could not seal the borders because they were not a presence there nor had they tried to be.  It was a case of out of sight out of mind.   Of course, US policy shares this guilt because once the Cold War ended we immediately pulled up stakes and slashed needed resources.  It will be interesting to see how this transpires- in the meantime, I will keep a keen on on the Pakistan General thread and will visit your Afghan post. 

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

As a quick point, which I think you would agree on- the Pakistani government shares a huge burden for the breakdown of the security situation.

Yes, indeed, that's why I spoke of, now, submitting the money you give them to a control, in order not to help them to lead counter-productive schemes, and at best to orientate these schemes in better directions thanks to a money lever.

Though, one of the problem with Pakistan apparently it is that when you speak about government, you would mainly speak about a facade to which military lets a bit of place to exist, that later one having become huge it can always pressure the govt. And 2nd, you have Pakistani secret services, that would be a kind of totally free card moving on their own for some obscure weird snooker in the region, and who apparently don't mind at all having relationships with terrorists or insurgents here or there in the region.

The accurate relationship between the 3 (govt-military-secret services) remains obscure to me, and I don't know whether there are people for which they are not, but the point remain the same, if money have to go on this territory let's not give it a chance run through this obscurity, money with a control or no money.



About floods, well, yesterday I discovered the voice of Ban Ki Moon, 'cute'.

Well, one week later, according to what I've followed, the dominating sentiment I would have would be that there is some international help, but it would be kind of 'so so' help. A kind of help that would come because people feel they ought to carry some help, but since it's Pakistan, it wouldn't be whole heart help. Not whole heart concretely because maybe other countries could do more than what they concretely do, and also psychologically, Pakistan is not that 'likable country' in term of image, then even if an helping hand is lent there, it would seem to be a not so frank one, I speak in term of psychological feeling, the international attitude toward this could let this feeling. Though, Pakistan govt also has responsibilities toward international help, it took them a while before claiming they needed big international help.

And in the meantime, you have guys who don't have any troubles at all to carry a whole heart help, who are people of which the population would feel to be closer than foreigners or governmental forces who generally have a negative image, because appearing as being either brutal (army) or discredited (corrupted functionaries, politicians), who carry it efficiently, who are very present on the ground and who provide all services the population could currently need. France24 made several reports about it showing that these guys, I obviously speak about the humanitarian facades of Islamist political and/or terrorist organizations, besides food, really provide public services there, especially in the realm of medicine, small medicine to heavier one, and for free, not to speak about the money they then give to people who lost everything. In case, one day those forces would come to power, there wouldn't be anything surprising in it, all in all, they already do tasks that are the responsibility of a state. If so, the lame part being that Pakistani who wouldn't be extremist at all could be taken in their agenda just because no one else but these guys are able to do what is needed there...

Oh, just a figure, even if as we said earlier in this thread giving money there should be done with caution, so far USA has given billions not necessarily caring of the caution, and once there is a massive disaster there, I only heard about $35 millions dollars, from the 1st world power, in the meantime I heard that those Islamists organizations would have already spent...$20 millions.

[Silent Hunter]

And in the meantime, you have guys who don't have any troubles at all to carry a whole heart help, who are people of which the population would feel to be closer than foreigners or governmental forces who generally have a negative image, because appearing as being either brutal (army) or discredited (corrupted functionaries, politicians), who carry it efficiently, who are very present on the ground and who provide all services the population could currently need. France24 made several reports about it showing that these guys, I obviously speak about the humanitarian facades of Islamist political and/or terrorist organizations, besides food, really provide public services there, especially in the realm of medicine, small medicine to heavier one, and for free, not to speak about the money they then give to people who lost everything. In case, one day those forces would come to power, there wouldn't be anything surprising in it, all in all, they already do tasks that are the responsibility of a state. If so, the lame part being that Pakistani who wouldn't be extremist at all could be taken in their agenda just because no one else but these guys are able to do what is needed there...

Oh, just a figure, even if as we said earlier in this thread giving money there should be done with caution, so far USA has given billions not necessarily caring of the caution, and once there is a massive disaster there, I only heard about $35 millions dollars, from the 1st world power, in the meantime I heard that those Islamists organizations would have already spent...$20 millions.

The US is sending an amphibious assault group to help out in the aid effort; the place does need helicopters at the moment.

Your point is valid; the Islamists are just as capable as using "soft power" to further their wishes as they are bombings. Terrorist groups have provided pensions for widows of their members, IIRC.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The rain falls...

So, yeah, it continues to fall, monsoons. And the echoes we have are always the same, as much from authorities as from civilians 'we need help'. Unless journalists do a bad job that's really too bad that those guys still don't have the help needed.

After having focused on the north west of the country, it has then f**ked the wheat  and very populated area of the Punjab, and now it is f**king the other very populated area of Sindh, and its rice.

This lasts for one month now.
1/5 of the country has been touched.
The 2 most populated area and most important for agriculture have been touched.
43 billions dollars of damages (Pakistani govt)
17 millions people have been touched (UN)
8 millions people are in need of an emergency help
5 millions are homeless

And for a few days, rain really falls hard on Sindh, and a new exodus is beginning there, about 2 millions.

After that Ban Ki Moon excited himself during one week, other countries finally began to consider that maybe there effectively needed something a bit bigger. So finally a total of 800 millions dollars has been collected. But, one more time unless journalists do a bad job, where is the blow of what's the most needed right now?? Where has been the blow of concrete military help from other countries?? Where has been this blow that happened in Haiti?? And effectively UN not only demanded money there, they had to make demand of military means, they had to demand it, and I don't even know if they got what they asked, but I haven't seen this massive blow which was needed there.

Really wonder what is the problem there.

Do Pakistani miss of luck in the fact that not enough people died?? Yes, 'only' 1,600 people counted died might not be enough to awake compassion, yeah maybe people feel the need to help once you have really been screwed, if you're not died enough maybe you don't really need help. Do bad for Pakistani, they are f**ked up, but not died, so maybe it doesn't count, so maybe they need less help...

The 2 most impressive disasters of these last years have been tsunami in Indian Ocean and earthquake in Haiti. Massive death tolls for both, but the number of people in need was far less important than here, I checked for both, for both it was less than 2 millions, about 1.3 million for Haiti, and 1.7 for the tsunami, both had a massive attention from the world and, especially for Haiti benefited of a blow of concrete military help. Here we have 17 millions people touched, no compassion, and we need UN to excite itself during weeks to obtain concrete means, which might not been enough, people keep saying they need help, and rain effectively continues to screw the country...

But too bad, not enough dead people, too much alive, really too bad, since moreover, as Pakistani officials say, the volume of water covering areas is still huge, it covers a lot of things, there might be 'surprises' when water will leave...

That's it, or rain is not as impressive as an earthquake or a tsunami? Too bad too if so.

Or that are just some f**king Muslims in their dusty dangerous country who anyhow hate everybody so why the f**k bothering?

Seems Pakistan had it all wrong here. But seems also this country is just knowing maybe the most massive natural disasters a country knew for decades, and this in a country which could meet problematic political instability, something that such an event can only make grow.

Yeah, all these people fleeing these big touched areas, they already are in suburbs of very big cities of the country such as Karachi and Lahore, some cities which already are nests, of political instability because huge, having social and economic problems, and having already known several waves of immigration of people from the rest the country, for different reasons, economy or war. In a few weeks they added to their population hundreds of thousands of people who go there because they have lost everything, and who say they intend to stay there and to find a job there now...

So much for social instability, then so much for political instability.

Too bad Pakistani aren't benefiting of a wholehearted help, and aren't benefiting of an help that would fit their situation at all, let's not be surprised if one day they more easily listen those who preach wholehearted anger.

[opebo]

Well, I won't say anything but I wonder if anyone can guess what I'm thinking.  (pretty much the same thing I thought about the Gulf Oil spill).