the 2008 strategy

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

here's my predictions:

-Arizona and Missouri won't be focused on too much this time. There'll be some weak runs at them probably, but no plan in the strategy.
-Unless the Democrats nominate a moderate southerner, I doubt WV will be focused on too much either
-Virginia won't switch yet, but it might be sort of like Colorado this time. It'd be interesting if Virginia votes more Democratic than WV.
-Colorado will be heavily focused on. This is one of the new top tier swing states.
-Even though my state will still be considered a swing and focused on, it won't be as top tier as it was this time.
-The Republicans might try more for Michigan than Pennsylvania.
-NH is to the Republicans what WV is to the Democrats. They'll run for it first, but unless they nominate a moderate they'll do poorly, and it will be conceded soon.
-Nevada will also be a big battleground.
-Even though it wasn't disputed much this election, there's no doubt Illinois's status as a swing state and bellwether is totally gone. There was some talk about it before the campaign time while Dean was the likely nominee. This time it'll be automatically given to the Democrats right away.
-The Republicans will try for Wisconsin, but they'll probably consider it a state that all things being equal, will go Democratic, and they can't rely on as a pick up
-The Republicans might make a weak run at NJ, but unless they nominate a moderate won't get far and will concede it quickly.
-No one will listen to Hawaii polls.

[Alcon]

here's my predictions:

-Arizona and Missouri won't be focused on too much this time. There'll be some weak runs at them probably, but no plan in the strategy.

Yeah. Unless Arizona is targeted heavily and the Democrats improve their standing among hispanics, it isn't going to happen. Kerry ignored Missouri and suffered accordingly. It's not a huge drop there, and I think if the Democrats ran a southerner, it's a distinct possibility.

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I strongly agree. WV shocked me in how much it moved.

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I'm not sure. This year's election results were pretty decisive. I'd like to point out that Virginia did vote more Democratic than West Virginia this year. Kerry lost Virginia by 9 - he lost West Virginia by 13.

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I'm not really sure Colorado is close enough to quite yet qualify as a total swing state. And with only 9 electoral votes, it's not really "top tier."

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Even with major focus on it, I'm pretty sure - correct me if I'm wrong - that MN went more for Kerry this year than it did for Gore in 2000. That means it went leftward by about 4 points. I think that MN may have moderated and it is going to remain a Dem-leaning swing state for a while.

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I don't know - they're both potentially promising.

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NH is for Republicans what WV is for Democrats, except the Democrats won NH by 1 and the Republicans won NH by 13.

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I agree, minus the "big" part. It's still too low-populated. It has five electoral vote. It will be like a Republican-leaning New Hampshire.

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Probably.

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Probably, although it is very close.

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Probably, again. Bergen County certainly was a lot closer, as were the NY suburbs all - but it's not enough, and by 2008, the effect will have dissipated.

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Not from SMS Research or that other company that screwed up that ends with "Research" at least.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

-Colorado will be heavily focused on. This is one of the new top tier swing states.

Unless Bill Owens is the GOP nominee. :-)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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I'm not really sure Colorado is close enough to quite yet qualify as a total swing state. And with only 9 electoral votes, it's not really "top tier."

it was a state where Kerry did much better than Gore, and is trending Dem. Maybe not on the level that Ohio and Florida will be again, but I think it'll be hit almost as much as here and WI.

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Even with major focus on it, I'm pretty sure - correct me if I'm wrong - that MN went more for Kerry this year than it did for Gore in 2000. That means it went leftward by about 4 points. I think that MN may have moderated and it is going to remain a Dem-leaning swing state for a while.[/quote]

you're correct. The Republicans will hit, but it won't be considered a huge battleground.

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I don't know - they're both potentially promising.

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NH is for Republicans what WV is for Democrats, except the Democrats won NH by 1 and the Republicans won NH by 13.[/quote]

what I mean was states that were once in one party's column that are moving away. And the Republican run at NH in 2008 might resemble Kerry's run at WV.

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I agree, minus the "big" part. It's still too low-populated. It has five electoral vote. It will be like a Republican-leaning New Hampshire.[/quote]

by "big" I meant by how much of a tossup it'd be considered. It'd be like NH this election.

I also forgot:

the Republicans won't bother with Washington or Oregon too much. Maybe make a run at some point, but unless they nominate a moderate and don't get any traction, will concede both pretty quickly.

[A18]

It was interesting to see West Virginia vote more Republican than Virginia.

It makes me wonder if this will be reflected at the state level as time goes on.