Turning point

[The Duke]

?

[A18]

GOP convention. Kerry trailed thereafter.

[ATFFL]

Swifties.  Ended any momentum kerry had.  His further mishandling of them allowed Bush to grab some moral highground and get his own momentum going into his convention.

[Alcon]

I don't really see any great turning point after which it was all downhill for Kerry. If I had to say, though, it would be the GOP convention that did the most damage. However, he recovered. After that, the lead went back and forth, mostly being in Bush's column. Before it was back and forth, mostly in Kerry's.

[J. J.]

The RNC.  Bush had an almost flawless convention; his speech was a bit weaker than 2000.

Kerry never recovered.

[Blue Rectangle]

Kerry was in decline before the Swifties began their campaign, so that's not it.  Bush was up about 2% before the RNC, so his convention didn't make the difference (it did help extend his lead through election day, though).  The debates didn't cause more than a very small shift, so that's not it.  The $87 B blunder was way early too early to be a turning point, but it did get Bush through the debates.

Out of the choices above, the DNC is the closest because it failed to give Kerry's campaign any direction.  My write-in choice is "Kerry's insanely bone-headed remark on Iraq at the Grand Canyon".  This happened shortly after the DNC and haunted Kerry's Iraq position from then on.  He might as well have changed his campaign theme to: "actually, I don't have a clue how to do things better in Iraq."

[opebo]

The Turning Point?  How many years ago was it that America began to succumb to fundamentalist Christianity?

But within this campaign it was the swift boat fabrications - middle americans will believe anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turning point? That implies that:

a) Bush was the underdog (he wasn't)
b) It was a competative election up to a point, and Bush ran away with it (also false)

It was a close election. 2000 has spoiled people as far as they go...

[bergie72]

A combination of the Swift Vote ad campaign, AND the RNC. 

Both of those put a major dent in Kerry's momentum, and he just couldn't recover from it.

[muon2]

An EV victory for Kerry might have been possible, but I don't think anything would have overcome the PV margin for Bush. Three factors on Kerry's side prevented him from making his best run at the EVs.

1) Choice of Edwards as VP. His popularity in the primaries didn't provide sufficient value in swinging any state in November, and that was clear by late summer. If the Midwest was the battleground, a Midwesterner needed to be on the ticket.

2) A DNC that failed to provide a clear plan for the future for the voters. Too much was on a brief period in the distant past, little on Kerry's record in the Senate. The voters didn't have a solid view of Kerry's issues other than not Bush.

3) Failure to react decisively to the Swiftboat ads. I don't think Clinton would have let any time go by without a full and complete response. The ads needed to be put to bed quickly, and they weren't.

[stry_cat]

The Dem Convention.  Kerry got a negative bounce.

[Sam Spade]

Other:

The day when the Massachusetts judge struck down the gay marriage law. 

Bush's ability to capitalize on that and other moral issues won him the election and a solid majority.

[7,052,770]

The Osama tape...until then it was looking like, despite everything, Kerry was gonna pull it out.  The Osama tape reminded everyone of terrorism, a strength of Bush's.

[zachman]

Kerry's vote for the Iraq War Resolution.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Other:

The day when the Massachusetts judge struck down the gay marriage law. 

Bush's ability to capitalize on that and other moral issues won him the election and a solid majority.

I agree with the.  It was completely under the radar, but Bush would not have won without the gay marriage issue.

[Shira]

It's the gays, stupid.

[J. J.]

It the leadership, stupid.

[Shira]

“I am very worried about this decision.  Kerry might lose the elections”
That was my mother’s response after the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision.
I was far from being enthusiastic about this decision, but I could not imagine that this would have such a disastrous impact on the outcomes.
Unfortunately my mother was right in her pessimistic assessment.
We, Americans are more stupid than I thought

[Shira]

Other:

The day when the Massachusetts judge struck down the gay marriage law. 

Bush's ability to capitalize on that and other moral issues won him the election and a solid majority.

You are absolutely right.
Don't forget, however, that the ignorance played a major role in these elections. Many of these "moral issues" voters sincerely believe that Sadam was the man behind 9/11.
                                                                                         

[Shira]

My write-in choice is "Kerry's insanely bone-headed remark on Iraq at the Grand Canyon".  This happened shortly after the DNC and haunted Kerry's Iraq position from then on. 

I am very sad that I have to agree with this assessment. I don't know who guided Kerry to adopt this position.
Kerry at least should have said what senator Rockefeller of WV said: "I voted for the war. If I knew what I know now, I would have voted against".
Clear and simple.

[Sam Spade]

It's the moral issues, not the gays.  The gay marriage amendment just stuck the issue up in the forefront of people's minds.

Until the left understands this, they will continue to lose.

You are over-rationalizing people who viewed Kerry as being fundamentally wrong and evil because of his positions.

The left does the same thing, just uses different language.

[J. J.]

Kerry had several chances to define his homeland security policy, at the convention, his speech in late September, during the debates.  He never did.

[Gabu]

Personally, I don't think there was ever any turning point, really.  Neither candidate really pulled ahead in any fashion.  If you switched roughly 0.05% of the total votes cast, Kerry would be president now.  To me, a "turning point" would imply that either candidate won by a sizeable margin.

[Shira]

Personally, I don't think there was ever any turning point, really.  Neither candidate really pulled ahead in any fashion.  If you switched roughly 0.05% of the total votes cast, Kerry would be president now.  To me, a "turning point" would imply that either candidate won by a sizeable margin.

If only 65,000 out of almost 2,800,000 Bush's voters in Ohio had voted the other way, then all the pundits would have come with a completely different interpretations/explanations

[Gabu]

Personally, I don't think there was ever any turning point, really.  Neither candidate really pulled ahead in any fashion.  If you switched roughly 0.05% of the total votes cast, Kerry would be president now.  To me, a "turning point" would imply that either candidate won by a sizeable margin.

If only 65,000 out of almost 2,800,000 Bush's voters in Ohio had voted the other way, then all the pundits would have come with a completely different interpretations/explanations

Yes, I know.  That 65,000 makes up the 0.05% that I referred to.