Battleground Poll, any others accurate?

[dougrhess]

"As of 9:30am this morning, the Associated Press estimate of the final popular vote is Bush=51.1%, Kerry=47.9%, Other=0.58%, and Nader=0.34%. The Tarrance Group prediction for the popular vote, based on the GWU Battleground Tracking Poll was Bush=51.2%, Kerry=47.8%, Other=0.5%, and Nader=0.5%.

This marks the third time in the last four Presidential cycles that the Battleground Presidential Tracking Poll has been the most accurate Presidential Tracking Poll in the country. "

For more information, please visit the Battleground portion of our website at http://www.tarrance.com/battleground.html

[Sam Spade]

Pew also said Bush 51, Kerry 48, Nader 1

Honorable mention goes to TIPP and Rasmussen (very close also).

I'm actually glad for Rasmussen, he deserved it after his 2000 debacle.

[The Vorlon]

The 'Bots state level poll was also rather amazingly good as well.

I think he pretty much hit MOE on every state.

[Reds4]

Absolutely an awesome projection from Tarrance Group. Pew did very well, and Rasmussen deserves much credit. Foxnews was surprisingly poor, and gallup didn't do too well. The one who deserves no credit and cannot claim to be the most accurate pollster anymore: John Zogby. The quote on his site today almost makes me mad.

[agcatter]

Yeah, I went over and saw that quote.  Unbelievable.

[The Duke]

Gallup was okay, missing the margin of victory by only 1 point.

[agcatter]

Gallup did well.  I do think they regret that stupid allocating all undecided to Kerry.  That made no sense.  However, the poll as it came out (49-47) was pretty good.  Battleground was incredible.

[pollwatch99-a]

Agree, hats off to Battleground and Rasmussen and his state bots were also very good.

Don't forget Mason-Dixon.  They nailed FL ( Bush+4), and they nailed OH( Bush+2).  I haven't checked but I think they did well with PA, WI, and NM also.  Quality state polls
 

[agcatter]

Yeah, Mason-Dixon did nail the big two state races dead on.  They proved to be as good as advertised.  Oh, and I believe Strategic Vision also nailed those two states dead on.  Strategic Vision for an (R) leaning firm did pretty well.  They were close in Georgia, Iowa and Wisconsin as well.

Mason-Dixon clearly deserves the blue ribbon.

[Volrath50]

Damn. Rasmussen did better than Gallup. That is.... interesting.

Will anyone trust Gallup in 2008, now that they screwed up majorly?

[The Vorlon]

Agree, hats off to Battleground and Rasmussen and his state bots were also very good.

Don't forget Mason-Dixon.  They nailed FL ( Bush+4), and they nailed OH( Bush+2).  I haven't checked but I think they did well with PA, WI, and NM also.  Quality state polls
 

I may be missing one or two of them, but M/D had another huge year.

19/20 states correctly forcast.

They had Bush +1 in Minnesota, where Kerry was +3, but still within MOE

The hit MOE 19/20 polls

Average error was 1.75%

It does not get any better





NOTE - More firms to come !

[agcatter]

That's an unbelievable.  Coker and company obviously know what they are doing.

On the other hand, Gallup's state polling was pitiful this year.

[dougrhess]

I think there's a typo in Vorlan's Iowa column. Should be 1, not 13

[ATFFL]

Would it be too much to ask to get a similar table for other major pollsters?  I would be interested to see how the two bots did.  Gallup and ARG would be interesting too.

[Alcon]

Would it be too much to ask to get a similar table for other major pollsters?  I would be interested to see how the two bots did.  Gallup and ARG would be interesting too.

I'll be working on a comparison for the battleground states and even other states later tonight.

[ATFFL]

Would it be too much to ask to get a similar table for other major pollsters?  I would be interested to see how the two bots did.  Gallup and ARG would be interesting too.

I'll be working on a comparison for the battleground states and even other states later tonight.

Allow me to contribute the Zogby numbers I posted in another thread.

...........Zogby.........Actual
AZ........B+6..............B+11
AR........B+3..............B+9
CO.......Even.............B+7
FL........K+1..............B+5
IA........K+5..............B+1
MI.......K+6...............K+3
MN......K+6...............K+3
MO......B+3...............B+8
NV.......Even.............B+3
NH.......K+5..............K+1
NM.......K+3..............B+1
NC.......B+3..............B+13
OR.......K+10............K+5
OH.......B+2..............B+2
PA........?.............K+2
TN........B+4..............B+14
VA........B+??............B+8
WA.......K+11...........K+7
WV.......B+4.............B+13
WI.......K+6..............K+1

[Alcon]

Would it be too much to ask to get a similar table for other major pollsters?  I would be interested to see how the two bots did.  Gallup and ARG would be interesting too.

I'll be working on a comparison for the battleground states and even other states later tonight.

Allow me to contribute the Zogby numbers I posted in another thread.

...........Zogby.........Actual
AZ........B+6..............B+11
AR........B+3..............B+9
CO.......Even.............B+7
FL........K+1..............B+5
IA........K+5..............B+1
MI.......K+6...............K+3
MN......K+6...............K+3
MO......B+3...............B+8
NV.......Even.............B+3
NH.......K+5..............K+1
NM.......K+3..............B+1
NC.......B+3..............B+13
OR.......K+10............K+5
OH.......B+2..............B+2
PA........?.............K+2
TN........B+4..............B+14
VA........B+??............B+8
WA.......K+11...........K+7
WV.......B+4.............B+13
WI.......K+6..............K+1

Thanks!

[The Vorlon]

Here is Zogby

[Sam Spade]

roftlmao

[Umengus]

The problem is party id: Zogby didn't predict a greater gop turnout.