Is the era of cheap Chinese labor over?

[phk]

That's a symposium over at The Economist.

http://www.economist.com/economics/by-invitation/questions/era_cheap_chinese_labour_over

Selected highlights:

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[memphis]

Doubt it. Plenty more ghetto Chinamen out there. And if not, plenty of other third world workers in other nations.

[opebo]

What a bunch of sick b******s they are over at The Economist.  At least Schindler had the decency to save his workers from the Nazis.

[Bo]

I don't think it's over and I think Chinese labor would still be important to Western companies for another 20-30 years. However, I think that beginning right now, the large companies and corporations would start sending much more jobs to other countries and areas (Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Central America, and eventually Africa) and thus I think China's role as a producer of cheap goods for the West is starting to diminish.

[Derek]

Labor movements took a while to gain traction in the US and fortunately helped to improve the morality of our nation. The difference between that and today's China is that in China people don't have the same freedoms to organize and protest that Americans do. Rather than linking human rights to trade with China, my answer along with most of my economic answers in the fair tax. By having the fair tax which eliminates the corporate tax, many businesses would come back, but some wouldn't which is another issue all together. To compete with the loss of jobs in the US, 3 things must happen.

1. fair tax
2. allow workers to negotiate wages rather than having minimum wage laws
3. constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to work rather than union power

[Gustaf]

What a bunch of sick b******s they are over at The Economist.  At least Schindler had the decency to save his workers from the Nazis.

What are you talking about?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

As long as the big retail chains stay in business, cheap labor will flourish, worldwide.

[opebo]

What a bunch of sick b******s they are over at The Economist.  At least Schindler had the decency to save his workers from the Nazis.

What are you talking about?

The Economist is blasé about slave labour.

[Gustaf]

What a bunch of sick b******s they are over at The Economist.  At least Schindler had the decency to save his workers from the Nazis.

What are you talking about?

The Economist is blasé about slave labour.

Blasé? You want them to moralize about it instead of reporting the facts? For someone supposedly not believing in objective morality you certainly seem to get indignant pretty easily.

Regardless, I didn't think that you minded exploiting slave labour, but maybe that is only when you do it yourself.

[opebo]

Regardless, I didn't think that you minded exploiting slave labour, but maybe that is only when you do it yourself.

I work for a living, and the ladies mostly make the same or more than I do, so.. I'm hardly superior to them in the social hierarchy.

[Gustaf]

Regardless, I didn't think that you minded exploiting slave labour, but maybe that is only when you do it yourself.

I work for a living, and the ladies mostly make the same or more than I do, so.. I'm hardly superior to them in the social hierarchy.

I'd say the person who buys another is probably above that person in the social hierarchy. The owner is always above the owned, as you might want to put it.

[Kevin]

I don't think it's over and I think Chinese labor would still be important to Western companies for another 20-30 years. However, I think that beginning right now, the large companies and corporations would start sending much more jobs to other countries and areas (Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Central America, and eventually Africa) and thus I think China's role as a producer of cheap goods for the West is starting to diminish.

Correct me if my prediction could be wrong but this is my opinion.

I wonder though 15-20 years or even more down the road if China my become an outsourcer of jobs to poorer Third World nations(not necessarily that the PRC is one anymore) to countries like Nigeria, Bangladesh, Iran or Pakistan? However, I think this type of outsourcing would not be the type Americans and the societies of many other Western nations perceive, but rather just opening new operations and creating entirely new jobs in these types of countries instead of exporting old ones.

Reason I saw this is that partially costs in labour, china being the world centre of manufacturing etc would still be cheap in China compared to First World nations, but also the potential for large scale labour unrest in the PRC due to something like traditional outsourcing occurring is alot greater and carries more consequences.

[phk]

I don't think it's over and I think Chinese labor would still be important to Western companies for another 20-30 years. However, I think that beginning right now, the large companies and corporations would start sending much more jobs to other countries and areas (Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Central America, and eventually Africa) and thus I think China's role as a producer of cheap goods for the West is starting to diminish.

Correct me if my prediction could be wrong but this is my opinion.

I wonder though 15-20 years or even more down the road if China my become an outsourcer of jobs to poorer Third World nations(not necessarily that the PRC is one anymore) to countries like Nigeria, Bangladesh, Iran or Pakistan? However, I think this type of outsourcing would not be the type Americans and the societies of many other Western nations perceive, but rather just opening new operations and creating entirely new jobs in these types of countries instead of exporting old ones.

Reason I saw this is that partially costs in labour, china being the world centre of manufacturing etc would still be cheap in China compared to First World nations, but also the potential for large scale labour unrest in the PRC due to something like traditional outsourcing occurring is alot greater and carries more consequences.

Kevin, countries like Vietnam have already siphoned off some of the lower end industries away from China already.

[Kevin]

I don't think it's over and I think Chinese labor would still be important to Western companies for another 20-30 years. However, I think that beginning right now, the large companies and corporations would start sending much more jobs to other countries and areas (Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Central America, and eventually Africa) and thus I think China's role as a producer of cheap goods for the West is starting to diminish.

Correct me if my prediction could be wrong but this is my opinion.

I wonder though 15-20 years or even more down the road if China my become an outsourcer of jobs to poorer Third World nations(not necessarily that the PRC is one anymore) to countries like Nigeria, Bangladesh, Iran or Pakistan? However, I think this type of outsourcing would not be the type Americans and the societies of many other Western nations perceive, but rather just opening new operations and creating entirely new jobs in these types of countries instead of exporting old ones.

Reason I saw this is that partially costs in labour, china being the world centre of manufacturing etc would still be cheap in China compared to First World nations, but also the potential for large scale labour unrest in the PRC due to something like traditional outsourcing occurring is alot greater and carries more consequences.

Kevin, countries like Vietnam have already siphoned off some of the lower end industries away from China already.

Really like what industries?

I figure in the case of China they would remain in country no matter what.

[Beet]

Like textiles.

This discussion is generally premature though.