What-If Germany won World War One?

[hcallega]

What if Germany defeated the French at the Battle of the Marne in September of 1914? This was before the horror of trench warfare. What would have happened to the Allied nations? Would Russia have remained Czarist? Would France have become the fascist nation? Would Germany become the dominant European super power? How would this all impact the UK and the US?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With an early end to the war, I'd expect limited boundary changes compared to later plans the Central Powers had so as to prevent the British from deciding that they'd rather draw the war out than agree to terms.  In Europe, the German Empire would gain the Kingdom of Poland and the Duchy of Luxemburg, plus some minor adjustments of the borders with France and Belgium.  Austria-Hungary annexes Serbia and Macedonia for all the good it does them, though they may transfer some of southern Serbia to Bulgaria since the Bulgarians considered the Macedonians to be Bulgarians in those days.  The Duchy of Finland might be detached from Russia, or it might not.

Africa probably sees Germany annexing Walvis Bay and expanding their Cameroon colony to encompass most of French Equatorial Africa.  Maybe some Pacific Islands get handed over to Germany, if it cares.

Russia probably sees troubles in 1915 as it did in 1905, but unless Nicholas II insists on continuing the war after the Fall of France, the Romanovs should survive.

The United Kingdom is only minimally impacted.

France sees some turmoil and the end of the Third Republic, but a brief war instead of turning the county fascist, likely sees Philippe VIII, King of the French be crowned.

However peace will not remain long.  Civil war will likely break out in Austria-Hungary when Franz Joseph dies not long after, and is likely to restart the whole bloody mess again.

[hcallega]

Thanks! That was really thorough and interesting.

[The Mikado]

Such a situation would also leave the Ottoman Empire still alive and kicking and on its massive modernization effort.  While it wouldn't catch up to the West, there's still no way an Arab Revolt would be successful then, and the Ottomans might still have a few more decades of life in them.  An eventual Turkey including, say, Syria and Northern Iraq, might be the eventual compromise after Arab nationalism gets too strong to ignore.

BTW, think the Armenian Genocide would still happen?

[J. J.]

I doubt that even winning the 1st Marne would have ended the Great War in 1914, even if Paris was occupied.  It might have led to a negotiated settlement favorable to Germany, however.  At best, a German victory on the Marne would have led to a Peace Treaty of 1915, at least for the Western Front.

Great Britain would have never signed as the Belgium coast was in German hands. In 1914, the Royal Navy could control at least an enclave around Calias.

I think you would see a pro-British Kingdom of Flanders, and a Grand Duchy of Wallonia as a constituent part of the German Empire.  Luxembourg would be a constituent grand duchy, probably expanded in the old West Luxembourg, with some minor annexations in what was France.  Both might be ruled by different branches of the Coburg family.

The whole Lorraine and Champagne north of Reims  (including Sedan) would be annexed.  I would also suspect some minor annexations in Nord-Pas-de-Calais.  Lille would be a on the border.

The German colonial holdings would collapse.

Italy would not have entered the war.

[ilikeverin]

Such a situation would also leave the Ottoman Empire still alive and kicking and on its massive modernization effort.  While it wouldn't catch up to the West, there's still no way an Arab Revolt would be successful then, and the Ottomans might still have a few more decades of life in them.  An eventual Turkey including, say, Syria and Northern Iraq, might be the eventual compromise after Arab nationalism gets too strong to ignore.

BTW, think the Armenian Genocide would still happen?

Oh dear.  The problem with cutting WWI too short is that then you start dealing with an Atatürk-less Turkey.  Try getting a Turk to imagine such a thing and you'll see why this would make any speculation about the Anatolian Peninsula a bit difficult

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I doubt that even winning the 1st Marne would have ended the Great War in 1914, even if Paris was occupied.  It might have led to a negotiated settlement favorable to Germany, however.  At best, a German victory on the Marne would have led to a Peace Treaty of 1915, at least for the Western Front.

Great Britain would have never signed as the Belgium coast was in German hands. In 1914, the Royal Navy could control at least an enclave around Calias.

I think you would see a pro-British Kingdom of Flanders, and a Grand Duchy of Wallonia as a constituent part of the German Empire.  Luxembourg would be a constituent grand duchy, probably expanded in the old West Luxembourg, with some minor annexations in what was France.  Both might be ruled by different branches of the Coburg family.

The whole Lorraine and Champagne north of Reims  (including Sedan) would be annexed.  I would also suspect some minor annexations in Nord-Pas-de-Calais.  Lille would be a on the border.

The German colonial holdings would collapse.

Italy would not have entered the war.

What you propose as Germany's territorial ambition in Western Europe goes far beyond anything that was put forth by even the most jingoistic elements of the German government in 1914.

Why on earth would Germany want to annex Wallonia, the entirety of Lorraine, or any of Champagne?  The last thing Germany wanted in 1914 was to annex a large number of French speakers.  Luxemburg was already part of the Zollverein (the German Customs Union) and indeed was the only territory not part of the German Empire that was in it.  Not only that, but the Germans considered Luxembourgian to be a dialect of German.  Beyond Luxemburg, Germany would annex a few small border areas of economic, military, or linguistic importance, but there would be no large scale changes.

If Germany want to punish France more than I think they would want to after a short victorious war that would be seen as having been started by the Slavs, they would do so by taking additional French colonies and probably the Belgian Congo as well.

The only thing I agree with what you posted is that Italy would not have entered the war and wish that it had honored the Triple Alliance.

[Bo]

I'd guess that France would quickly surrender afterwards. Britain would fight on, but quickly surrender as well in the hopes of having a favorable peace treaty to them. Germany would then aggressively crush Russia, leading to something like the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and very large German gains in the East. The Russian Revolution (the first one), would probably occur, but maybe a little later. I doubt the second one (the Bolshevik Revolution) would have occured, at least not before the Great Depression. I don't think there would have been many territorial changes in Western Europe, but Germany would have probably taken over most of France's and Belgium's African (and maybe Asian) colonies. The U.K. probably doesn't lose any colonies or territory in a final peace treaty. Germany probably becomes the dominant European power, and I could see an Anglo-German alliance after the war, possibly with the U.S. joining in later. France might have become Fascist and started WWII after the Great Depression would have occured, but it's hard to say for certain. Of course, I'm not an expert on this the way some other people are.

[cpeeks]

WW2 never happens and the aristocracys are still in place today.

[J. J.]

What you propose as Germany's territorial ambition in Western Europe goes far beyond anything that was put forth by even the most jingoistic elements of the German government in 1914.

Why on earth would Germany want to annex Wallonia, the entirety of Lorraine, or any of Champagne?  The last thing Germany wanted in 1914 was to annex a large number of French speakers. 

Raw materials, such as iron and coal; one of the richest deposits of the first was found on the French side of the border after the Franco-Prussian War.

Wallonia fits a later pattern seen in the east.  They set up buffer states, based on nationality, i.e. Ukrainia, Finland.  The British would have never accepted a German dominated coast.  An independent Wallonia could be too easily dominated by France.

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The Grand Duchess's sister actually became engaged to Bavarian Crown Prince Rupprech, a field marshal in the German Army during the war.

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There is no "punishment," just a relatively equitable peace settlement.  I doubt that the Marne would have ended the war on the Western Front.  This is Germany giving back much, if not most, of the land they occupied by the end of 1914 in reality.  If they had won 1st Marne, it probably would be 80% of what they would be occupying.

You also have to look a German strategy in 1914.  Defeating France was the third strategic priority.  First was defeating Russia; second was to keep Austria-Hungary from collapsing.

Germany did two things that indicate this.

1.  Prior to August 1, 1914, they requested that Germans be permitted to garrison some of the fortresses of Toul and Verdun, as a guarantee of neutrality in the war against Russia.

2.  They requested permission to march across Belgium, and guaranteed Belgium would otherwise be respected.

Both were obvious violations of sovereignty, but Germany wanted to avoid a war in the west, if possible.  They wanted it as short as possible, if it came.  They got neither.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What you propose as Germany's territorial ambition in Western Europe goes far beyond anything that was put forth by even the most jingoistic elements of the German government in 1914.

Why on earth would Germany want to annex Wallonia, the entirety of Lorraine, or any of Champagne?  The last thing Germany wanted in 1914 was to annex a large number of French speakers. 

Raw materials, such as iron and coal; one of the richest deposits of the first was found on the French side of the border after the Franco-Prussian War.

I agree that they would likely take the small portion of Moselle they didn't take in 1871 for the iron that was found there later, but that's not the same as taking the three other departments that comprised Lorraine.

Wallonia fits a later pattern seen in the east.  They set up buffer states, based on nationality, i.e. Ukrainia, Finland.  The British would have never accepted a German dominated coast.  An independent Wallonia could be too easily dominated by France.

But an annexed Francophone Wallonia would be too disruptive.  A Belgium that was required to be part of the Zollverein, with a guarantee that no German troops would be stationed there to appease the British.  Indeed, drawing Belgium and the Netherlands into the German orbit was a German war aim by September 1914, but that is not anywhere close to being equivalent to annexing Wallonia.

Annexing large numbers of Francophones into the German Empire, whether they be French or Belgians was a recipe for turning the German Empire into another Austria-Hungary, which the Germans clearly did not want.

[J. J.]

They seem to have willing to shift population in Lorraine, as they had in 1871.  Had they won the 1st Marne, I think you would have seen that.

But an annexed Francophone Wallonia would be too disruptive.  A Belgium that was required to be part of the Zollverein, with a guarantee that no German troops would be stationed there to appease the British.  Indeed, drawing Belgium and the Netherlands into the German orbit was a German war aim by September 1914, but that is not anywhere close to being equivalent to annexing Wallonia.

Annexing large numbers of Francophones into the German Empire, whether they be French or Belgians was a recipe for turning the German Empire into another Austria-Hungary, which the Germans clearly did not want.

Germany, in 1914, has less of a problem with non-Germans than in later years.  They did have minorities; they were willing to include Poles, for example.  It was not as great an issue as it was after 1914, in the west.

There is no way the British would let any great power occupy the invasion beaches of Flanders.  Even entering the Zollverein would be too much in 1914

There was no way that the victorious Germans would let a anti-German power close enough to to capture the either the Ruhr or the Saar.  A French Wallonia would do have that potential.

The only two solutions I can see is a basically slitting of Belgium on ethnic lines, with Germany getting the closest or an outright annexation of Belgium to the Meuse, probably with the fortresses included.  Luxembourg would get portions, but the rest would be an Imperial Territory.

Ironically, had the French been defeated twice by a German Empire, it might have ended Revanchism.  The concept of inevitability might have taken root.