CT state senate elections analysis, 2010

[homelycooking]

District 1: Safe Dem. Any district that includes Hartford is impossible for Republicans to win.
District 2: Safe Dem. A majority black district (the only one in CT). Coleman is invincible.
District 3: Safe Dem. Republicans didn't even run anyone against LeBeau in '08.
District 4: Tossup. Handley, age 73, is done after seven terms. Republicans will fight hard for this one, since they came within 17% (a close race by CT standards!) last time. Manchester is trending Republican of late; with luck, a solid Republican candidate can win it.
District 5: Likely Dem. Jonathan Harris is running for Attorney General, but the Democrats shouldn't have any trouble finding someone to defend this district which includes the liberal bastions of Bloomfield and West Hartford.
District 6: Safe Dem. DeFronzo is popular, Republicans are increasingly struggling here.
District 7: Leans Rep. Democrats want this seat badly, but Kissel has held on for three straight elections. State Rep. Jarmoc is running for the Democrats. She might have more success than Colli.
District 8: Likely Rep. Democrats missed their opportunity to take this suburban-rural seat when Herlihy retired in 2008. Witkos is very popular.
District 9: Likely Dem. Doyle is a good fit for his district; blue collar, relatively moderate. A Republican got a lot of attention here when he sang, Sinatra style, to some old folks during a campaign stop. Wasn't enough.
District 10: Safe Dem. This is New Haven. Republicans are an aggressively persecuted minority here.
District 11: Safe Dem. Same thing.
District 12: Likely Dem. Edward Meyer represents some pretty conservative beach towns here. He's probably safe, though.
District 13: Safe Dem. This district is a string of smallish cities. Very working class, hard to imagine a Republican winning here.
District 14: Safe Dem. Milford is traditionally friendly to Democrats, and Republicans have not done well here.
District 15: Safe Dem. Republicans gave up on this one years ago.
District 16: Leans Rep. Sam Caligiuri is running for Congress. For sure, this is a major target for the Democrats. But it won't be easy. Southington is in play, but Wolcott is a major Republican fortress.
District 17: Leans Dem. Were it not for Hamden and Ansonia, Joe Crisco would have been defeated long ago. Republicans are turning up the heat in this district, could be a tough fight.
District 18: Safe Dem. Maynard picked this one up for the Democrats in '06, and he's turned it into a very safe district for his party.
District 19: Safe Dem. Edith Prague is an icon in the Senate.
District 20: Likely Dem. This district contains New London, it's difficult to pick up for Republicans.
District 21: Leans Rep. Debicella should be running stronger in this conservative district, but he's not. He'll probably hold on again, though.
District 22: Leans Dem. This one changed hands in a special election in '07 when Bill Finch ran for mayor of Bridgeport, but Musto won it back in '08. Republican and ex-Senator Russo wants a shot at Congress; without him running, Democrats can keep this seat.
District 23: Safe Dem. Hell will freeze over before Republicans win in Bridgeport.
District 24: Leans Rep. McLachlan is a much weaker candidate than Cappiello, who ran for Congress in '08. Democrats need a big, big turnout in Danbury in order to win here.
District 25: Safe Dem. This seat includes Norwalk.
District 26: Likely Rep. Republicans should be doing better in this extremely wealthy district, but Democrats weren't able to pull it off when Judith Freeman retired, so it's unlikely that it will happen in '10.
District 27: Safe Dem. Republicans might not even bother with this one again.
District 28: Safe Rep. John McKinney, Senate Majority Leader, probably wants a shot at Congress or the Senate, but not this year. He's very safe here.
District 29: Safe Dem. Donald Williams' district includes the University of Connecticut and a town that elected as its first selectman a member of the Green Party.
District 30: Safe Rep. This half rural, half wealthy district overwhelmingly favors Republicans. Roraback will win again in a landslide.
District 31: Likely Dem. If Republicans run a candidate here, they have a shot at knocking off Tom Colapietro.
District 32: Likely Rep. Democrats overperformed here in '08 because Lou DeLuca got caught dealing with corrupt businessmen and organized crime. Now that voters in this very conservative district have DeLuca off their minds, Rob Kane should win handily.
District 33: Safe Dem. Republicans can't knock off Daly. They've tried multiple times, with no success.
District 34: Safe Rep. Democrats haven't run candidates here.
District 35: Safe Rep. Democrats also haven't run candidates here.
District 36: Leans Rep. Republicans should be crushing all opposition in this high-roller district. They're not, and with lots of Gold Coast Democrats running for office this year, the excitement could put a conservative Democrat over the top.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Thanks for sharing this -- I love looking at State House/Senate races. I take it that save for the one (D-held?) tossup, there's not likely to be much partisan change in Hartford?

[homelycooking]

There's never much partisan change in Hartford. In 2006, one seat changed hands. In 2008, none did*. If the Republicans have a massively successful year, they'll take only the 4th and 22nd. Democrats are going to control the Senate and the House for years and years to come. And yes, Handley in the 4th is a Democrat.

Dem-held seats (24):
16 rated safe
5 rated likely
2 rated lean
1 tossup

Rep-held seats (12):
4 rated safe
3 rated likely
5 rated lean

* From 2006.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Interesting. Didn't realize CT was so stable in its legislature.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

From Dave's Redistricting App it looks like the GOP could be reduced to as few as 3 safe and 2 likely/lean seats.

[homelycooking]

I'd like to see that redistricting plan. The GOP will inevitably take some districts along the Gold Coast and in the Naugatuck Valley, but it is perfectly concievable that the districts could be drawn to prevent any Republican from winning in New London, Middlesex, Windham or Tolland counties.

[muon2]

Doesn't CT keep towns intact as much as possible? If so, that restricts some ability to gerrymander.

[homelycooking]

Yes. But in the Senate and especially in the House, where districts are small and have populations of about 20,000, dividing up cities and towns is very common and inevitable.

[cinyc]

Yes. But in the Senate and especially in the House, where districts are small and have populations of about 20,000, dividing up cities and towns is very common and inevitable.

Inevitable, yes, but just looking at the map, Connecticut appears to go through great lengths to respect municipal boundaries to the extent possible:

CT House:


CT Senate:

Some of the most Gerrymandered-looking seats appear to be race-driven.

[homelycooking]

Senate Districts 2 (about 53% black) and 10 (about 44% black) are obviously drawn to elect black senators. Districts 23 (40% Hispanic) and 3 (45% hispanic) give Hispanics (in CT, mostly Puertorriqueños) a solid advantage. (However, district 3 has a white senator)

The House districts are so small that no gerrymandering is necessary. Blacks and Hispanics automatically get ten seats each due to their concentration in the cities.

I recommend looking at the demographic overlay map on Gardow for CT. This gives one an idea of where in CT the minorities are.

[cinyc]

Senate Districts 2 (about 53% black) and 10 (about 44% black) are obviously drawn to elect black senators. Districts 23 (40% Hispanic) and 3 (45% hispanic) give Hispanics (in CT, mostly Puertorriqueños) a solid advantage. (However, district 3 has a white senator)

The House districts are so small that no gerrymandering is necessary. Blacks and Hispanics automatically get ten seats each due to their concentration in the cities.

I recommend looking at the demographic overlay map on Gardow for CT. This gives one an idea of where in CT the minorities are.

The minorities in Connecticut are concentrated in Hartford, most of New Haven, part of West Haven, most of Bridgeport, parts of Waterbury, New Britain, Norwalk and Stamford plus parts of the towns of East Hartford, Windsor and Bloomfield.  It is possible to draw a Connecticut majority-minority Congressional District - though no one minority would be a majority.  The best I can do leaves a plurality White percentage of about 35%.  The district snakes from Bridgeport to Hartford/Bloomfield/East Hartford/Windsor with a branch into Waterbury.

[homelycooking]

I've tried it myself, a plurality Hispanic or black district isn't possible. If only one could make the connections between cities a little thinner...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I guess that makes my map unlikely as it relies on carving up the urban areas as much as possible:



8, 9, 10, 13 and 15 are the only likely GOP seats under this map.

[homelycooking]

11 and 10 would probably go Republican too. Maybe 21 and 4 as well.

You'd piss off every black person in Connecticut with district 17...Putting Hartland in the same district with Bloomfield is a bad, bad idea.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

11 is designed to take in much of the Massachusetts-esque white liberal New England Yankee areas in NE CT as possible. 10's a possibility but I think I drew it so it was won by both Kerry and Obama. 4 is based around Westport which has always voted heavily Dem. 21 is only 66% white and drawn to include a chunk of Hartford.

[homelycooking]

11: Resembles the actual district 30, which also encompasses those towns but consistently has elected Republican Andrew Roraback.
10: Very closely resembles the actual district 24, which was the seat of Republican David Capiello.
4: I see your point, that one has a bit of Norwalk in it too. That's a reasonably liberal district.
21: Right, it does have a bit of SE Hartford in there! There's a seat bound to stir up racial tensions, just like 17.

[AndrewTX]

I guess that makes my map unlikely as it relies on carving up the urban areas as much as possible:



8, 9, 10, 13 and 15 are the only likely GOP seats under this map.

1, 3 and 4 would probably go GOP too.

[homelycooking]

4 is based around Westport which has always voted heavily Dem.

Yes, 3 includes New Canaan. But Norwalk and Stamford will probably negate the heavy GOP advantage in that town.

1 would pose a challenge for the GOP in that Greenwich is not as conservative as it used to be, and that Democrats would have a huge advantage in that section of Stamford.

[homelycooking]

District 1: Safe Dem. Any district that includes Hartford is impossible for Republicans to win.
District 2: Safe Dem. A majority black district (the only one in CT). Coleman is invincible.
District 3: Safe Dem. Republicans didn't even run anyone against LeBeau in '08.
District 4: Tossup. Handley, age 73, is done after seven terms. Republicans will fight hard for this one, since they came within 17% (a close race by CT standards!) last time. Manchester is trending Republican of late; with luck, a solid Republican candidate can win it.
District 5: Likely Dem. Jonathan Harris is running for Attorney General, but the Democrats shouldn't have any trouble finding someone to defend this district which includes the liberal bastions of Bloomfield and West Hartford.
District 6: Safe Dem. DeFronzo is popular, Republicans are increasingly struggling here.
District 7: Leans Rep. Democrats want this seat badly, but Kissel has held on for three straight elections. State Rep. Jarmoc is running for the Democrats. She might have more success than Colli.
District 8: Likely Rep. Democrats missed their opportunity to take this suburban-rural seat when Herlihy retired in 2008. Witkos is very popular.
District 9: Likely Dem. Doyle is a good fit for his district; blue collar, relatively moderate. A Republican got a lot of attention here when he sang, Sinatra style, to some old folks during a campaign stop. Wasn't enough.
District 10: Safe Dem. This is New Haven. Republicans are an aggressively persecuted minority here.
District 11: Safe Dem. Same thing.
District 12: Likely Dem. Edward Meyer represents some pretty conservative beach towns here. He's probably safe, though.
District 13: Safe Dem. This district is a string of smallish cities. Very working class, hard to imagine a Republican winning here.
District 14: Safe Dem. Milford is traditionally friendly to Democrats, and Republicans have not done well here.
District 15: Safe Dem. Republicans gave up on this one years ago.
District 16: Leans Rep. Sam Caligiuri is running for Congress. For sure, this is a major target for the Democrats. But it won't be easy. Southington is in play, but Wolcott is a major Republican fortress.
District 17: Leans Dem. Were it not for Hamden and Ansonia, Joe Crisco would have been defeated long ago. Republicans are turning up the heat in this district, could be a tough fight.
District 18: Safe Dem. Maynard picked this one up for the Democrats in '06, and he's turned it into a very safe district for his party.
District 19: Safe Dem. Edith Prague is an icon in the Senate.
District 20: Likely Dem. This district contains New London, it's difficult to pick up for Republicans.
District 21: Leans Rep. Debicella should be running stronger in this conservative district, but he's not. He'll probably hold on again, though.
District 22: Leans Dem. This one changed hands in a special election in '07 when Bill Finch ran for mayor of Bridgeport, but Musto won it back in '08. Republican and ex-Senator Russo wants a shot at Congress; without him running, Democrats can keep this seat.
District 23: Safe Dem. Hell will freeze over before Republicans win in Bridgeport.
District 24: Leans Rep. McLachlan is a much weaker candidate than Cappiello, who ran for Congress in '08. Democrats need a big, big turnout in Danbury in order to win here.
District 25: Safe Dem. This seat includes Norwalk.
District 26: Likely Rep. Republicans should be doing better in this extremely wealthy district, but Democrats weren't able to pull it off when Judith Freeman retired, so it's unlikely that it will happen in '10.
District 27: Safe Dem. Republicans might not even bother with this one again.
District 28: Safe Rep. John McKinney, Senate Majority Leader, probably wants a shot at Congress or the Senate, but not this year. He's very safe here.
District 29: Safe Dem. Donald Williams' district includes the University of Connecticut and a town that elected as its first selectman a member of the Green Party.
District 30: Safe Rep. This half rural, half wealthy district overwhelmingly favors Republicans. Roraback will win again in a landslide.
District 31: Likely Dem. If Republicans run a candidate here, they have a shot at knocking off Tom Colapietro.
District 32: Likely Rep. Democrats overperformed here in '08 because Lou DeLuca got caught dealing with corrupt businessmen and organized crime. Now that voters in this very conservative district have DeLuca off their minds, Rob Kane should win handily.
District 33: Safe Dem. Republicans can't knock off Daly. They've tried multiple times, with no success.
District 34: Safe Rep. Democrats haven't run candidates here.
District 35: Safe Rep. Democrats also haven't run candidates here.
District 36: Leans Rep. Republicans should be crushing all opposition in this high-roller district. They're not, and with lots of Gold Coast Democrats running for office this year, the excitement could put a conservative Democrat over the top.

All seats were pretty much  as I predicted except one, with the 4th district tossup going to a recount and the 31st (Colapietro) taken by the Republicans.

[California8429]

Hurray for Jason Welch! I've been hoping for this victory for many years now. His campaign was very good, especially for newer people (not completly though)