How did Zogby do?

[ATFFL]

Let's see how Zogby's state preictions were, shall we?

...........Zogby.........Actual
AZ........B+6..............B+11
AR........B+3..............B+9
CO.......Even.............B+7
FL........K+1..............B+5
IA........K+5..............B+1
MI.......K+6...............K+3
MN......K+6...............K+3
MO......B+3...............B+8
NV.......Even.............B+3
NH.......K+5..............K+1
NM.......K+3..............B+1
NC.......B+3..............B+13
OR.......K+10............K+5
OH.......B+2..............B+2
PA........?.............K+2
TN........B+4..............B+14
VA........B+??............B+8
WA.......K+11...........K+7
WV.......B+4.............B+13
WI.......K+6..............K+1

Keep in mind some of these may change.

FL, OH and PA were all described as "Trending Kerry".

Guess he should have gone with his polls, not the exit polls.

[agcatter]

.....Kerry's election to lose.  LOL

[ATFFL]

Link:  Zogby Madness!

[The Vorlon]

Zogby 2004 - The brutal truth...

Arizona

Zogby had it +6% for Bush
Final +11% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 5%

Arkansas

Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +9% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 6%

Colorado

Zogby had it too close to call
Final +7% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 7%

Florida

Zogby had it +.1% for Kerry and trending Kerry
Final +5% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 5%

Iowa

Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final Bush +1

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 6%

Michigan

Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

=> MINSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 3%

Minnesota

Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

=> INSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 3%

Missouri

Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final Result +8% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 5%

Nevada

Zogby had it too close to call
Final +3% for Bush

=> INSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 3%

New Hampshire

Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry

=> INSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 4%

New Mexico

Zogby had it +3% for Kerry
Final - Bush +3

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 6%

North Carolina

Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +13% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 10%

Oregon

Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +5% for Kerry

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 5%

Ohio

Zogby had it +2% for Bush
Final - Bush +2

=> INSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 5%

Pennsylvania

Zogby had TIED
Final Result +3% for Kerry

=> INSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 3%

Tennessee

Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 10%

Virginia

Zogby had it slight edge for Bush
Final +8% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 8%

Washington

Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +7% for Kerry

=> INSIDE the MOE
=> Error of 3%

West Virginia

Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

=> Missed the MOE
=> Error of 10%

Wisconsin

Zogby had it +1% for Kerry
Final +6 for Kerry

SUMMARY

MISSED MOE 14 / 21 times
INSIDE MOE 7 / 21 times

AVERAGE ERROR => 5.6%

That's actually marginally better than he did in 2002

BTW....

I wonder how Mason-Dixon did...?

Hmmm....

19/20 races right (They had Bush +1 in Minnesota he lost within MOE)

19/20 races within the 4% MOE

Average error of 1.75%

Somebody told me once this was a pretty decent firm.

[Rococo4]

you know how Zobgy yesterday said expect surprises in "CO, AR, WV and PA"

I have a feeling his PA surpise wasnt Bush only losing only 51-49

I think we can guess his surprise was Bush losing by like 10% there based on the exit polls he used to make his 5pm "predictions"