Your biggest state surprise...

[Umengus]

What is the state result wich really upset you?

I would say West Virginia, I tought that it would be Bush +3, it's Bush +13

[MasterJedi]

New Hampshire, I thought but was going to win by a couple hundred votes.....but he didn't and I can live with that because he WON! (Not declared yet but we all know)

[??????????]

Bush winning by 8% in Virginia. Guess the trend theory is down the tubes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Hard to find one.  With the exception of Iowa and Wisconsin, the map broke exactly as I thought, and those two were utter tossups.

Maybe Bush breaking 40 in NY.  Even with the Curt Schilling endoresment... :-)

[minionofmidas]

By who they voted for - Wisconsin. Not that it was much of a surprise.
By margin - Well Vermont is extremely odd. I mean, a 10-point Dem swing while the nation swings 4-point Rep???
On places, West Virginia because it broke my heart, Alabama because I don't think anyone guessed that this would be the strongest pro-Bush swing, and New York because the outcome ther is exactly what my poll overage said it would be and I still think it came out of the blue.

[Silent Hunter]

Bush breaking 40% among Hispanics and winning FL by a clear margin.

[??????????]

I almost had a heartattack when they said VA and NC were to close to call. lol

[minionofmidas]

I almost had a heartattack when they said VA and NC were to close to call. lol

CNN also, later on, had trouble calling Mississippi and Montana. Wonder what that was for?

[Silent Hunter]

Sabato claims the exit polls for those states went for Kerry.

[patrick1]

Sabato claims the exit polls for those states went for Kerry.

Sabato looked like he wanted to execute the exit pollsters this morning

[Umengus]

I almost had a heartattack when they said VA and NC were to close to call. lol

[Silent Hunter]

Has anyone noticed the Redskins rule hasn't held this time? (Unless OH goes to Kerry, then it has). Perhaps the Red Sox victory eliminated that too.

[ATFFL]

Has anyone noticed the Redskins rule hasn't held this time? (Unless OH goes to Kerry, then it has). Perhaps the Red Sox victory eliminated that too.

I said it was a bad year for sports curses or trends.  First the Patriots lose "The Game before The Game" and then win the SB, then the Sox end the curse, now the Redskins rule goes out the window.

[NHPolitico]

I thought we'd win New Hampshire just barely, but I was totally surprised by Benson's loss.  I thought he'd win by 3 or 4.  I just can't get over that we have this assmunch Lynch as our governor. At least we'll kick his ass to the curb in 2006. Governor Charlie Bass, perhaps?

[bergie72]

I think Florida being called so quickly was a shocker. 

I was also surprised by how long it took some of the "Safe" states to be called, like VA, NC, and HI.

[Silent Hunter]

Hawaii not being a surprise after all.

[NHPolitico]

I think Florida being called so quickly was a shocker. 

I was also surprised by how long it took some of the "Safe" states to be called, like VA, NC, and HI.

They explained that the issue was that the MSM believed the junk exit polls that showed states like Mississippi as battlegrounds. They were in such disbelief that the exit polls didn't match the returns, that they were paralyzed on making calls.

[AuH2O]

Yeah, the whole process was sent to hell by the exit polls. Many of those were off by just huge margins, 10% and in some cases more.

I honestly don't even see how that is possible. Just doesn't make any sense. I would really like to know the scoop on that whole situation.

I was disappointed Bush didn't do better in the Midwest, Ohio aside. He improved in most states from 2000, but it seemed like he made more progress states that were solid either way.

I correctly predicted he would do better in Mass., it was by a fair margin too. Rove appears to have been vindicated on some level-- hispanics apparently supported the President in adequate numbers to push him in FL, NM, NV and get him a bit closer (though not in contention) in CA.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The margin in Florida was bigger than expected, but I'm most surprised at the total lack of surprises.   For the most part, the polls were right...at least going by the state averages in my database.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On places, West Virginia because it broke my heart,

To be honest it didn't suprise me a great deal... I found out two days ago that there had been a complete and utter breakdown between National and State parties (I'd heard before that relations were strained. I didn't know they had actually collapsed until then) and that a VERY high Evangelical turnout (a rare event) along with poor turnouts in the Coalfields were expected.

Pretty much what happend.

A "Perfect Storm" basically.

I don't know which idiots decided to outsource pretty much the entire campaign in WV to OH, PA and VA... very, very early on (ie: when Kerry actually led in WV) and as the poll numbers dipped 'cos there was less work being done, more stuff was pulled out... etc etc.
The final straw seems to have been dropping that Church visit. What a crass, pointless and idiot gesture to send out that was...

[better stop now. this is turning into a rant]

[dougrhess]

What is the state result wich really upset you?

I would say West Virginia, I tought that it would be Bush +3, it's Bush +13

Nothing was unlike what I thought possible except for the margin of Bush over Kerry in FL. I thought Bush would take it, but not by that much. Guess there's still counting to do though.

[Alcon]

West Virginia was a lot more of a landslide than I expected. Nevada was closer; Virginia was not so much. And I no longer will believe Hawaii polls. Ever.

[jacob_101]

Nothing really surprises me.  FL was won by more than I thought and I thought Bush would do better in the Upper Midwest(IA, WI, MN) than he did.

[The Vorlon]

Minnesota shocked me.

I got three states wrong, Iowa & Wisconsin (the two states I got wrong in 2000 as well) and Minnesota.

Iowa and Wisconsin I had as pure tossups, but I figured Minnesota would be very close.

The GOP ground game just didn't show up in that state.

[Nym90]

Bush winning by 8% in Virginia. Guess the trend theory is down the tubes.

Actually, no. Virginia is still trending Dem. Bush also won it by 8 points in 2000. So now it's only 5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, not 8 points more Republican. Bush did better nationally than in 2000, but didn't do any better in Virginia.